Tampa Bay Lightning switched the Toronto Maple Leafs switch to Game 2 and burned the Buds and their lack of discipline with three markers for a powerful game in Wednesday’s 5-3 victory. Now the series is moving to Tampa, where the Bolts are 17-9 SU in the last two postseasons.
Can Leafs bounce, stay out of the box and avoid a 2-1 series deficit? Can the Bolts increase their game to 5-on-5 and finally keep the Leafs under 30? Find out in the free NHL elections and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs odds vs. Lightning
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated sports betting market.
Lightning opened at -115 on ML, but moved five points to -120. The total also opened at 6.5 after opening 6 for Match 2. The list closed as -135 favorites in Match 2 and -120 favorites in Match 1. Tampa was the -130 favorite at home for the latest match of the regular season at the end April.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements until the puck falls, and be sure to check the full NHL odds before betting to make sure you’re getting the best number.
Predictions of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
Estimates made on 06.05.2022 at 10:00 ET. Click on each forecast to proceed to the full analysis.
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Information about the game Maple Leafs vs Lightning
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, Florida • Date: Friday, May 6, 2022 • Discharge: 19:30 ET • Television: TBS, Sportsnet
Maple Leafs Odds vs. Lightning series (1-1)
Maple leaves: -105 Lightning: -115
Visualization of Maple Leafs betting against Lightning
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out). Lightning: Jan Ruta D (Question). Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs record against Lightning from 2018-19
Maple Leafs: 6-7 SU, 38 goals per. Lightning: 7-6 SU, 47 goals for.
Trend to bet to know
The over is 21-5-2 in the last 28 away games of Maple Leafs. Find out more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Elections and Predictions
Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and the total amount in this game. Our best bet is our favorite choice in all markets.
Monetary line analysis
You can’t beat Lightning in consecutive games, as the Leafs learned in Game 2. Tampa tied the series on Wednesday and moved to a 15-0 SU after losing the playoffs over the past three seasons. The Bolts were aided by a parade of penalties in Toronto, which led to three goals in Tampa’s power play.
The three markers of extra strength were a welcome sign for John Cooper’s club, which scored a 0-for-5 on PP in Game 1, including a five-minute big win against the Leafs. This is a PP that was 14-for-29, heading for the postseason and if the Leafs don’t stop applying unnecessary penalties, they could leave Florida in a serious hole.
Head coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters after game 2 that he was a little surprised by how the playoffs were announced and the amount of power distributed. Game 2 had just over 45 minutes of 5 on 5 action, and with the way the last three games went, including the regular season finale, we doubt that aggressive things are slowing down in Game 3.
Sheldon Keefe, surprised to see the amount of interference and interference-type calls made by officials during the early playoffs. pic.twitter.com/GmsnqSef5f
– David Alter (@dalter) May 5, 2022
In total, the first two games in the series saw a total of 22 power-play options. The Bolts have experience in the playoffs to see how far they can push the needle, but the Leafs are still adapting. Tampa has an advantage in the physical game at the moment and if match 3 is won on special teams, Tampa PP is too hot at the moment, having scored 17 goals in the last 10 games.
We also get a slightly higher price of the bolts at -115. Toronto closed as -135 favorite in Game 2 and must be at least +105 or +110 on the road tonight. This is a very equivalent series in which the books have the list as a favorite, but Tampa is already -115 to win the series. The bolts can close at -125 or -130 and the market starts to move this way.
“Leafs” received a great production from Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner, which is great news for Toronto after last season’s playoffs, but the supporting cast did not join.
$ 11 million captain and center-back John Tavares has one assist and five shots in two home games. He has only one goal in his last 10 games and his second line with Ilya Mikheev and Alex Kerfut had 26.4% xgoal% at 5-on-5 in match 2. Since the Leafs did not have a last substitution, this second line will have to wake up and right now it doesn’t look promising to them.
Beyond the top line, Toronto has goal productions by David Kampf (shorthand), Alex Kerfut (shorthand) and Jake Musen. This lack of depth assessment at uniform force is not good enough to beat the Bolts.
There is more pressure on Leafs tonight to win match 3 and if they find themselves in the penalty area again, they may be in the match they have to win on Sunday with a score of 2-1. The Leafs have the best attack in the league with 3.88 goals per game, but also give 3.56 goals per game, which is the eighth worst score in hockey.
We don’t see the referees changing the way they call this game, and if the Bolts get five or six more chances for a powerful game tonight, we have to take them – we also think they have 10 to 15 points too few. at this price.
Prediction: Lightning money line (-115 in Coolbet)
Covers NHL betting analysis
Over / Under analysis
The two teams have met four times in the last 35 days and Over are 3-1, with Under under a 5-0 victory for Toronto. In each of these matches, one team has scored at least five goals, and the last five matches have resulted in a total of 38 goals – 12 of those coming with a male advantage.
Money Puck had 7.54 expected goals in match 2, while match 1 ended with 6.54 xgoals. Both teams also generated a lot of goal chances, as Leafs and Bolts combined for 143 total goal chances and 55 high-risk chances in 120 minutes of action, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Both teams wanted to set the physical tone that comes from their meeting on April 21, but the Leafs struggled to stay out of the box, which is a very underestimated skill for the playoffs. Getting into fights and not being the only man eliminated is something the playoff teams have experience with and the Bolts have the advantage. Even if Kyle Clifford does not meet the requirements (removed for one game after a bad goal by Colton Ross), we doubt that things will be tame in Game 3.
#Leafs lines during the morning skating May 6/22
Bunting-Matthews-Marner Nylander-Tavares-Anderson * Mikheev-Kampf-KerfutEngwal-Blackwell-Spezza Extra: Clifford, * Filling the Box
Rieli-Lubushkin Mucin-BrodyGiordano-Hall Sandin-Liljegren
Campbell (starter) Calgren
– David Alter (@dalter) May 6, 2022
Yes, Sheldon Keefe and Leafs talked a lot about not taking penalties, but this veteran of the Tampa team knows how to push his buttons and even if the Bolts get only four chances, they have hummed over 40% in their last 10 games and can still cause a lot of damage with less time for PP.
The Leafs have scored more away goals than any other hockey team this season. Their 3.83 goals per game were easily the best in the league, but their total 7.44 goals per game was also the highest score in hockey. This season, the Leafs finished 27-12 for Over away and 8-1 O / U in their last nine games on the road.
The total in Game 1 opened to 6.5, then for some reason hit 6 for Game 2, which was not the exact number. Today’s 6.5 is at a level and receiving money is a pleasure, given that both teams have shown that they can score goals in the last four games.
Receiving Andrei Vassilevski after a victory is also a recommended move, as he was elite after a loss. We expect the Leafs to continue to score a lot of goals in the net, as they are averaging 35.7 shots per game against Tampa this season in six games and the two powerful games should have an impact. If Keef moved William Nylander to the second line to try to start a little secondary result, it would also help in the end.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (+115 in Coolbet)
The best bet
Austin Matthews comes out with three shots in defeat and has to put on his shoulders tonight’s game. Matthews missed a lot of time on the ice with all the penalties in Toronto, so the increase in production is on the way if the Leafs manage to stay out of the box.
The Rocket winner Richard averaged 4.9 shots per away game this season and had seven shots in his last game in Tampa, so we don’t have to worry about last-minute home games.
Leafs also made a lot of hits in the net against the Bolts this season with 35.7 shots per game in six games.
Toronto needs to be more disciplined, which needs to keep 34 on the ice in the main game – and the big players appear in big moments. He has five goals and seven assists in five games against Tampa this season.
Choice: Matthew Over 4.5 shots on goal (-110)
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