Covid’s cases in South Africa are starting to rise again due to two new mutated subunits of omicron, which may evade the body’s immunity, scientists say.
In the last two weeks, daily new cases in South Africa have increased sixfold to almost 10,000 a day, with one in four tests being positive. This means that the country is now staring at the barrel of the fifth wave.
Researchers trying to figure out what is causing the increase in cases say it may be related to two new branches of the original version of the omicron (BA.1) that hit South Africa in December, called BA.4 and BA. 5.
Both subvariants have a spike protein mutation. This means that the virus may be able to evade immunity acquired from past infections or vaccines, according to Dr. Nicole Walter of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in South Africa.
On Wednesday, Tedros Gebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, confirmed that the two sub-options were behind the jump. But he emphasized that “it is too early to know whether these new sub-variants can cause more severe disease than other omicron sub-variants”.
Widespread apathy
Official statistics say South Africa is the hardest hit country on the continent. According to the South African Medical Research Council, there have been more than 300,000 deaths – deaths above the average – since the pandemic.
The potential fifth wave comes at a time when Africa’s most industrialized nation has almost completely lost interest in Covid-19. While both beta and delta waves were completely devastating for South Africa, the last omicron wave in December was relatively mild.
The lack of weight in December contributed to widespread apathy towards the disease. Local reports say vaccination rates are at record lows, although more than 50 percent of South Africans have not been vaccinated.
Just over 45,000 people were vaccinated in the country last week, up from more than a million at the end of August 2021.
Estimates show that South Africa has an extremely high level of innate immunity, with so-called seropositivity levels hovering around 90 per cent. However, not everything is good news. Hard-won natural immunity will slowly decline, and a recent study shows that this natural defense may not stop people from becoming infected again.
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