Such half-measures could provide a useful boost to the workforce, while isolating the majority of the population from the realities of war.
But it would be weeks, probably months, before the new cadre was properly trained, equipped, and ready to go to the battlefield. It is not clear that when they do, they will change the momentum of the war, said Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russia’s security services.
And Mr. Putin may not have that much time.
The effects of the sanctions will soon hit Russia
Elvira Nabiulina, head of Russia’s central bank, told the State Duma last month that “the period in which the economy can live with its reserves is over” and that “in the second and early third quarters we will enter a period of structural transformation and looking for new business models. “
In other words, the Kremlin has until the end of summer or the beginning of autumn, before ordinary Russians really feel the crushing price of sanctions.
With an elusive breakthrough in Donbass and more Western weapons and money pouring into Ukraine, the prospect of a decisive victory during this time is slim.
More logical, says Mr. Petrov, is the transition to defense and an attempt to consolidate and retain the already occupied territories.
At the end of the summer, Mr Putin may present the public with retribution to make the economic catastrophe worthwhile: “peace” and “great victory”.
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