A new study shows that progressive conservatives continue to enjoy a lead over other parties for almost a week in their campaign, but Liberals appear to be gaining ground on the attractiveness of their leader.
While 29 percent of respondents in the Nanos Research survey cited PC leader Doug Ford as the preferred choice for prime minister, 24.1 percent named Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca, 20.3 percent named NDP leader Andrea Horvat and four percent named the green leader Mike Schreiner.
That’s more than seven points for Del Duca, who was up 17% when the last poll was conducted on May 2nd. Since then, Ford has fallen by almost one point and Horvat has fallen by 2.5 points.
“Ford’s progressive conservatives continue to have an advantage over the liberals of Del Duca,” said Nick Nanos, chief data specialist at Nanos Research. “The preferred measure for Premier Ford is ahead, but Del Duca registered a positive increase after the first week of the campaign.
Among staunch voters, support for the PC party fell slightly from a week ago from 36.9 percent to 35.4 percent, according to the poll. Support for the Liberal Party and the NDP remains stable at 30.4% and 23.7%, respectively. Green Party support fell slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%.
Among the strong voters in the GTA, the Progressive Conservatives (35 percent) and the Liberals (35.2 percent) are close, while the rest of the Ontario PC (35.9 percent) enjoys a significant lead over the Liberals (24.6 percent). per cent), as well as the NDP (28.9 per cent).
Speaking further to CP24 on Monday, Nanos said improved numbers around Del Duca could likely be key to his party’s wealth.
“So he’s up seven percentage points in the first week, probably because he’s new, he hasn’t made any mistakes and it seems that at least in the first week his brand is the big and big winner,” Nanos said. “Support for the Liberals remains unchanged, but this movement for Del Duca is something to watch out for, because it could be indicative of a future movement that is in favor of the Liberals.
The poll also found a huge difference between men and women when asked which party they would consider voting for.
Among strong-voted men, 40.9% said they would vote for the PC, while 24.2% said they would vote for the Liberals and 22.2% said they would vote for the NDP.
Among determined women voters, 36.8% said they would vote for the Liberals, while 29.7% said they would vote for the PC and 25.3% said they would vote for the NDP.
Nanos said this shows “significant gender disagreement” when it comes to who the people of Ontario will vote for at this particular time in the campaign.
CTV News and CP24 commissioned the study from Nanos Research.
To conduct the survey, Nanos contacted 500 Ontario-aged residents to vote by phone and online between May 7 and May 8. The margin of error for a survey of this size is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The campaign officially started on May 4 and voters in Ontario will go to the polls on June 2.
METHODOLOGY
Nanos conducted a hybrid telephone and online dual-frame (terrestrial and cellular) RDD study among 500 Ontario residents aged 18 and over between 7 and 8 May 2022 as part of a follow-up study. Participants were randomly hired by telephone with the help of live agents and an online survey was administered. The results were statistically verified and weighted by age and gender, using the latest census information and the sample was geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario. Individuals were called at random by random dialing with a maximum of five callbacks. The margin of error for randomization among 500 Ontario residents is 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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