Former Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallström once described opinions that her country should join NATO as “absurd”. The 67-year-old doyenne of the ruling center-left Social Democrats is less clear about her country’s prospects of joining the Western military alliance.
Wallström, who plays a central role in the debate sparking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said in an interview that it was important to help Prime Minister and party leader Magdalena Anderson deal with such a sensitive issue that it could split the Social Democrats in the general election. in September. She hinted that NATO membership was a likely outcome.
“Everyone believes in Magdalena. Nobody wants this as a problem in the election campaign. “Obviously, that only takes us in one direction,” she told the Financial Times.
She added: “It is not ideal to have such a decision when fear is the emotion that people have – maybe fear is what forces us to make these important decisions.
The change of approach within one of Sweden’s political forces, which deeply cares about the Scandinavian country’s non-alignment, is one aspect of the security shock that Vladimir Putin caused by deciding to attack Ukraine, another non-NATO country, and tried to overthrow her government. in February.
The Swedish parliament is due to issue a report on NATO this week, before the ruling party’s position can be formalized over the weekend. Until then, in neighboring Finland, President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin will clarify their positions – all pointing to Helsinki, saying “yes” to joining the Western Alliance.
In Finland, the debate on NATO was broad and largely a consensus among all political parties. But in Sweden, it largely boils down to the Social Democrats, who won first place in all elections since 1917. The Moderates and three other center-right parties have long supported membership, and the nationalist Swedish Democrats have changed their minds to Finland if it joins.
“This is the most important decision this country has made,” said a Swedish businessman. “And we make decisions at breakneck speed.”
After 200 years of no war and decades of public commitment to peacekeeping and nuclear disarmament, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of military non-alignment with the Swedish Social Democrats.
“This is a religious issue for the Social Democrats,” said Hans Valmark, an MP from the center-right opposition moderate and a longtime supporter of NATO membership. “They need to be transformed.”
One of the main reasons for this reluctant transformation is Finland’s decision to join NATO and its lobbying to make Stockholm follow suit. “They are begging us,” said a Swede close to the talks.
“Finland is Sweden’s closest ally with deep historical, cultural and political ties. Of course, the choice of Finland will also affect Sweden’s future policy, “said Aida Hadjialic, a board member of the Social Democratic Party, which will decide the party.
Another reason the Swedish Social Democrats are reconsidering their position is that they do not want security to be a problem in this autumn’s parliamentary elections, especially after opinion polls show that a majority is in favor of joining the defense organization.
“They really want to avoid a defense campaign and NATO with a clear majority in favor of membership,” Walmark said.
For a party whose identity is partly built on two centuries of non-alignment, there is a sense of concern at the pace at which Sweden can do the unthinkable before.
“Yes, there is part of the discussion that is going very fast,” said Lowen Redard, a Social Democrat lawmaker who is also on the party’s board. “If Finland is first on the issue, it leads to time constraints.
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Wallmark said a big difference is in the way the Russian threat is perceived in each country. Moscow is an “existential threat” to Finland, which shares a long border with it, but “the Swedes know we are probably not the main target,” he added.
As dozens of Social Democrat meetings are held up and down in Sweden, Redar said the party has “great respect” and an understanding that the geopolitical situation has changed.
However, she said: “There are different opinions on this issue. This is not an easy move. The main question in our party about NATO is how can we remain a participant in democracy, peace and disarmament?
Wallström said many are worried about Sweden’s reliability in terms of nuclear disarmament or peace in countries like Yemen if it joins NATO.
These fears have revived fears that Sweden’s dominant party will be divided into two irreconcilable camps. “We must do everything we can to avoid splitting the country and the party forever. It’s not that we have to be suddenly silent about what we hold, “Wallström added.
However, although the party’s factions have spoken out against membership, the mood seems to be towards the acceptance that Sweden has little chance if its neighbor joins. Redar said defense spending would have to increase significantly if Sweden stayed out of NATO; a business leader estimates that this will need to be 4-5 percent of gross domestic product.
Hadjialic said the main question was “how best to protect our country and our security”. A refugee in Sweden who fled the Bosnian genocide, she added that the Russian invasion had “brought back memories”.
“I know what it’s like to stand up to an aggressor when you have to be defenseless, when you don’t have multilateral agreements to help you. In this situation, NATO has come to the rescue. ”
Swedish Prime Minister Anderson faces the task of balancing all these conflicting arguments in order to make a historic decision. “She walks on a very thin rope,” said the business leader. “It’s a party that’s everywhere.”
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