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Kremlin removes weak governors amid deteriorating economic prospects, says Moscow think tank chief
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May 10, 2022 • 4 hours ago • 2 minutes reading • 9 comments Members of the local election commission empty the ballot box in the polling station after the last day of the three-day parliamentary elections in Moscow, September 19, 2021 Photo ALEXANDER NEMENOV / AFP via Getty Images
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Four Russian regional governors resigned on Tuesday as the country prepares for the impact of economic sanctions.
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The heads of the Tomsk, Saratov, Kirov and Mari El districts have announced their immediate resignations, and the head of the Ryazan region has said he will not run for a new term.
Elections are scheduled for September in all five regions.
Although Russia’s regional governors have been elected, they are politically subordinate to the Kremlin. Several of the outgoing governors are regions where the ruling United Russia bloc won a small share of the vote in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Unpopular managers are regularly removed from office, often resigning in clusters during the spring months.
Ilya Grashchenkov, head of the Center for Regional Policy Development think tank in Moscow, said the Kremlin was removing weak governors amid deteriorating economic prospects for the country, driven by Western sanctions.
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Graschenkov said: “There is a need to restructure the economy, especially in those regions where Western economic influence has been significant. These managers need to be replaced by younger alternatives. “
Russia is facing the deepest economic contraction in nearly three decades as pressure from sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies intensifies, according to an internal forecast by the Treasury Department.
Gross domestic product is likely to shrink by up to 12% this year, deeper than the eight percent drop expected by the economy ministry, according to people familiar with the assessment, who requested anonymity to discuss domestic discussions. The government has not released a public forecast since the invasion of Ukraine.
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The finance ministry issued a statement Tuesday saying the forecast report was inaccurate. “The preparation of official macroeconomic forecasts is not within the competence of the Ministry of Finance,” the statement said, noting that it expects measures taken by the government and the Bank of Russia to greatly mitigate the negative effects of sanctions and ensure stable economic development “.
A 12 percent contraction would equate economic pain with the turmoil of the early 1990s, when the Soviet-era Russian economy shifted to capitalism with a contraction unprecedented since the war.
“The main negatives are the oil embargo, the EU’s refusal of Russian gas, and more departures from foreign companies,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at the BCS financial group in Moscow. “All of this is likely to expand gradually, with many negatives carried over to 2023.”
Excluding these factors and based only on current sanctions, it forecasts a contraction of 10.8% in 2022 and around 5% in 2023.
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