The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the worse the consequences for the climate will be, warned the envoy of US President John Kerry.
Many countries are struggling with an energy crisis, but urgently need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5C, he said.
“If it’s a long time, obviously it does [staying within 1.5C] “It’s very complicated,” Kerry said. “It depends on what’s going on with the war, where the war is going and how long it’s going on. together, I think we can make up some distance [in progress on tackling the climate crisis]”
But he added: “The longer this lasts, the harder it becomes [to stay within 1.5C]. There are a number of scientists who believe that we are now on the verge of 1.5C. Anything that is not part of the acceleration [of emissions-cutting efforts] interferes. “
He said the agreement reached at last year’s UN Cop26 climate summit would “face some major obstacles” if implemented in the current geopolitical context, but still has a chance to deliver on its promises.
“It’s not easy, but it hasn’t fallen apart,” he told the Guardian. “[The effort to stay within 1.5C] encountered an unexpected barrier, the war, and faced an unfortunate and dangerous resumption of business in some countries, which threatens the acceleration needed to get the job done, and it will be up to us to push back and move on. “
The world’s leading climate scientists have recently warned that it is “now or never” for the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the greatest devastation from the climate crisis.
Kerry said this shows that there is still a chance to keep the 1.5C target. “The IPCC told us a few weeks ago that we are lagging behind, it is not improving at the pace it should be, emissions have increased, but you still have time to do that,” he said. “And my message to people is that we need to take advantage of the fact that science is telling us that we still have time, but we need to significantly speed up what we are doing. We need to accelerate very significantly. “
He said the disturbances caused by the war in Ukraine are forcing countries to reconsider their dependence on fossil fuels. “Cop26’s promises would never be fulfilled in six months or a year or two. These are promises for 2030. Hiccups for several months may be something we can get around or overcome. ”
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Kerry also said the United States would increase its natural gas production, despite its climate goals, to help its allies replace Russian fossil fuels. He said US gas produced lower carbon emissions than Russian gas due to more efficient production, and could provide a short-term solution as countries increase renewable energy.
US President Joe Biden has come under heavy criticism from US green campaigns for allowing gas drilling to expand, opening up new areas of public land for research and development. Kerry said more gas was needed in the short term to make up for lost supplies from Russia, but that companies should be wary of building large quantities of new gas infrastructure that would be left as blocked assets when the energy crisis wears off.
“Gas has always been part of the transition from dirtier fossil fuels to this new energy economy,” he said. “I would take a gas-fired power plant in the near future – I emphasize in the short term – over coal or oil every day of the week. But we do not want to build a huge new infrastructure around gas, which has challenges for blocked assets or is not weakening. [not fitted with technology to capture and store carbon] in a few years. ”
He hinted at moves to limit how long such plants could operate. “We have to decide how fast we need to have props to reduce – maybe 10 years, eight years, who knows? But in the long run, gas will have to be reduced and meet low emission standards like everyone else, “he said.
Six months before the next UN Cop27 climate summit in Egypt, Kerry said the focus should be on the G20, the world’s 20 largest economies, which account for about 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The emission reduction plans that these countries presented to Cop26 were insufficient to meet the 1.5C target, so they were asked to come to Egypt this November with tougher proposals.
Kerry acknowledged that many countries are unlikely to meet the targets, including Russia, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers. He warned that some countries were “indifferent” to the need to reduce emissions or had an interest in not doing so.
“War is not the only thing that hinders acceleration – pathetic indifference in some circles, outright misinformation in others and people who just love the status quo, is perhaps one of our biggest problems,” he said.
But there were hopes that the main sources of emissions, including China and India, accepted the change, he added. “We are ready to try to help China or provide everything that China is ready to accept in terms of aid.
He also pointed to India, which is currently suffering from a huge heat wave, where a major expansion of renewable energy is planned, which could allow the country to reduce emissions in line with the global target of 1.5 C.
Kerry said he hoped climate legislation currently stuck in Congress, largely due to the refusal of a single Democratic senator to pass it, would be resolved soon. He said other countries were unlikely to be discouraged from acting on their own due to US internal difficulties.
“Maybe they’ll say yawn to them, they can’t get together, we’ll do it,” he said. “I can’t predict, but I can tell you this: that President Biden is determined to move forward and obviously has administrative powers and can issue certain enforcement orders and do certain things.
“Even while Donald Trump was president withdrew from Paris, 75% of the new government that appeared online in the United States was renewable. So the truth is that much of what is happening in the United States will be run locally, and some nationally by state governors and mayors of cities who are deeply involved.
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