MANILA, Philippines (AP) – Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s apparent landslide victory in the Philippine presidential election raises immediate fears of further erosion of democracy in the region and could complicate US efforts to blunt China’s growing influence and power in the Pacific.
Marcos, the son and namesake of longtime dictator Ferdinand Marcos, won more than 30.8 million votes in Monday’s election, according to an unofficial count, more than twice as many as his closest rival.
If the results are valid, he will take office at the end of June for a six-year term with Sarah Duterte, daughter of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, as his vice president.
Duterte, who is leaving the post with a 67% approval rating, has maintained closer ties with China and Russia, at times resenting the United States.
However, he withdrew from many of his threats against Washington, including a move to repeal the defense pact between the two countries, and the luster of China’s promise to invest in infrastructure faded, with many failing.
Whether the recent trend in relations with the United States will continue has much to do with how President Joe Biden’s administration reacted to Marcos’ return to power in the Philippines, said Manila-based political scientist Andrea Chloe Wong, a former researcher at the Philippine Foreign Ministry.
“On the one hand, you have Biden on geostrategic interests in the Philippines, and on the other hand, he has to balance the promotion of American democratic ideals and human rights,” she said.
“If he decides to do so, he may need to isolate the Marcos administration, so this will definitely be a delicate balancing act for the Philippines, and Marcos’ approach to the United States will depend heavily on how Biden engages with him.
His choice comes at a time when the United States is increasingly focused on the region, embarking on a strategy unveiled in February to significantly expand the United States’ commitment to strengthening its network of security alliances and partnerships, with a focus on tackling growing influence and ambitions of China.
Thousands of U.S. and Philippine forces have recently completed one of their largest combat exercises in years, demonstrating U.S. firepower in the northern Philippines near the sea border with Taiwan.
Marcos did not provide details on foreign policy, but said in interviews that he wanted to pursue closer ties with China, including possibly reversing a 2016 Hague tribunal ruling that nullified almost all of China’s historic claims to the South China Sea. .
China refused to recognize the decision, and Marcos said it would not help settle disputes with Beijing, “so this option is not available to us.”
Allowing the United States to play a role in trying to resolve territorial disputes with China will be a “recipe for disaster,” Marcos said in an interview with DZRH radio in January. He said Duterte’s policy of diplomatic engagement with China was “really our only option”.
Marcos also said he would maintain his nation’s alliance with the United States, but relations were complicated by US support for administrations that took power after his father’s ouster and the 2011 U.S. District Court in Hawaii, which he said and his mother are for disrespect. for an order to provide information on assets in connection with a 1995 human rights class action lawsuit against Marcos Sr.
The court fined them $ 353.6 million, which was never paid, and could complicate his ability to visit the United States in the future.
The United States has a long history with the Philippines, which was an American colony for most of the first half of the last century, before being granted independence in 1946.
The United States closed its last military bases in the Philippines in 1992, but the country’s location in the South China Sea means it remains strategically important, and under the 1951 Collective Defense Treaty, the United States guarantees its support if the Philippines is attacked.
Although the Biden administration may have chosen to work with Marcos’ leading opponent, Lenny Robredo, “the alliance between the United States and the Philippines is vital to the security and prosperity of both nations, especially in the new era of competition with China,” said Gregory B. Pauling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“Unlike Lenny, with her consistent platform for good governance and development at home and opposition to China abroad, Marcos is a political cipher,” Pauling said in a research note. “He avoids presidential debates, avoids interviews and is silent on most issues.
However, Marcos was clear that he would like to try to improve relations with Beijing again, Pauling said.
“But when it comes to foreign policy, Marcos will not have the same room for maneuver that Duterte had,” he said. “The Philippines tried an outstretched hand and China bit it. That is why the Duterte government has once again embraced the US alliance and become tougher on Beijing in the last two years.
Marcos Sr. was ousted in 1986 after millions took to the streets, ending his corrupt dictatorship and returning to democracy. But Duterte’s election as president in 2016 led to a return to the leader of the strong man type, which voters have now doubled with Marcos Jr.
At home, Marcos, nicknamed “Bongbong” since childhood, is expected to continue where Duterte left off, stifling the free press and breaking disagreements with the outgoing leader’s less rude and impudent style, while ending ongoing attempts to recovered some of the billions of dollars his father stole from the state treasury.
But a return to the firm rule of his father, who declared martial law for much of his rule, is unlikely, said Julio Tihanchi, a professor of political science at De La Sale University in Manila.
“He doesn’t have the courage, the brilliance, or even the ruthlessness to become a dictator, so I think what we’re going to see is a form of authoritarian light or Marcos-lite,” Tihanki said.
Marcos’ new government will not mean the end of Philippine democracy, Pauling said, “although it could accelerate its disintegration.”
“The country’s democratic institutions have already been hit by the six years of Duterte’s presidency and the rise of online disinformation, along with decades of eroding factors of oligarchy, corruption and mismanagement,” he said.
“The United States would be better served by commitment than by criticizing the democratic winds that blow the Philippines.
Marcos’ approach at home could have a secondary effect in other countries in the region, where democratic freedoms are increasingly being undermined in many places and the Philippines is seen as a positive influence, Wong said.
“This will have an impact on the Philippines’ foreign policy when it comes to promoting its democratic values, freedoms and human rights, especially in Southeast Asia,” she said. “The Philippines is considered a bastion of democracy in the region, with a strong civil society and noisy media, and we will have less confidence in Bongbong Marcos as president.
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