Russia’s war in Ukraine is unlikely to end even if its forces succeed in capturing the eastern Donbass region, National Intelligence Director Avril Haynes said on Tuesday, as President Putin relied on the West’s declining determination to pursue goals beyond Donbass and along the entire coast of neighboring Moldova.
“We estimate that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond Donbass,” Haynes told Senate Armed Services Committee deputies during an annual hearing on global threats. She noted that the confirmed military commitment means that there is no “viable negotiating path” for Ukraine and Russia in the near future.
Haynes said Putin probably believes that his own country has “greater capacity and willingness to take on challenges” and “probably relies on US and EU determination to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices worsen.” .
But the Russian leader’s ambitions may not coincide with his military’s military capabilities, Haynes said, increasing the risk of a “more unpredictable and potentially escalating trajectory” in the conflict.
She said Russia’s ground forces had “significantly degraded” and could take “years” to recover – which could lead to Putin resorting to asymmetric or “more drastic” measures, including martial law, a reorientation of industrial production or potentially escalating hostilities, “if he thinks Russia is losing,” Haynes said.
A senior US defense official said on Tuesday that Russian forces were “two weeks or more” behind schedule in the south and east, calling their progress in Donbass “very uneven and growing”.
Haynes also told the panel that Russia may have refrained from launching significant cyber attacks in Ukraine out of concern for their “side effects”, including hampering the Kremlin’s ability to gather intelligence.
On Tuesday, the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom formally accused the Russian government of hacking satellite telecommunications modems in Ukraine and parts of Europe on February 24, in what governments said was a coordinated attack coinciding with the Russian invasion.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a statement that the attack “had an impact on other European countries”, effectively “deactivating very small-opening terminals in Ukraine and across Europe”, including “tens of thousands of terminals outside Ukraine”, which, along with other things, maintain wind turbines and provide internet services to private citizens. ”
“This attack had a huge impact,” Haynes told lawmakers. “Russia intends to focus on Ukrainian command and control, but in the end they affected a much wider range of … terminals outside Ukraine, including in Europe,” she said.
Haynes noted that the intelligence community estimates that Russia has not carried out a large-scale cyber attack against the United States amid its invasion of Ukraine due to “long-standing concerns about the potential for escalation in cyberspace to the United States.” But she added: “That doesn’t mean they won’t attack at some point.”
In Ukraine, escalating conflict could also take the form of attacks on Western security supplies, retaliation for sanctions or the organization of “another major nuclear exercise,” Haynes said, although she said the intelligence community had not identified “upcoming potential.” “Putin to use nuclear weapons.
Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that the conflict was “a bit of a stalemate.”
“I think I would characterize it as the Russians not winning and the Ukrainians not winning,” he said. Russia could mobilize additional reserve forces – bringing in thousands more troops into the battle – but in the absence of a declaration of war, Berie said: “I see no breakthrough from either side.”
Both intelligence officials said the Chinese leadership was closely following developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but that current US assessments did not show an accelerated timetable for attempts to seize Taiwan militarily.
Ellie Watson contributed to the report.
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