WASHINGTON –
An endless and invincible war in Europe? This is what NATO leaders fear and are preparing for, as the Russian war in Ukraine passes its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for both sides and no solution is seen.
The possibility of a stalemate fuels fears that Ukraine could remain a deadly European battlefield and a source of continental and global instability for months or even years.
Energy and food security are the most immediate concerns, but massive Western support for Ukraine as the world emerges from the coronavirus pandemic and struggles to cope with the effects of climate change could deepen the global economy. And if Russia decides to escalate, the risk of wider conflict increases.
The United States and its allies are pumping a steady stream of deadly weapons into Ukraine to keep it at bay. Although most analysts say Kyiv is behaving the least, these infusions must continue if they are to support President Volodymyr Zelensky’s oath to win, or at least continue to coincide with or repel Moscow’s progress.
Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin did not signal a desire to intensify the invasion, either by joint troop mobilization or the use of unconventional weapons, he did not show any signs of retreat. Nor does Zelensky, who now claims that Ukraine will not only repel the current Russian invasion, but will regain control of Crimea and other areas that Russia has occupied or otherwise controlled since 2014.
“It is very difficult to see how a solution could be reached through negotiations at this time,” said Ian Kelly, a retired veteran diplomat who served as US ambassador to Georgia, another former Soviet republic on which Russia has territorial projects. He added: “None of the countries wants to stop fighting, and probably the most likely outcome is a war that lasts several years. Ukraine would be a festering wound in the middle of Europe.”
“There is no way for Ukraine to withdraw,” Kelly said. “They think they will win.”
At the same time, Kelly said that no matter how many miscalculations Putin made about Ukraine’s strength and will to resist or the unity and determination of NATO allies, Putin could not accept defeat or anything less than a scenario he could claim. that there has been success.
“It would be political suicide for Putin to step down,” Kelly said.
U.S. officials, beginning with U.S. President Joe Biden, seem to agree, even after Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin raised his eyebrows, saying after a visit to Kyiv last month that Washington’s goal is not just to help Ukraine defend itself. , but also to “weaken” Russia to a point where it does not pose a threat.
“Putin has no way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what to do with it,” Biden said Monday, even after signing legislation designed to restart World War II-era land leases. program and called on Congress to approve a $ 40 billion package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
So what do I do? French President Emmanuel Macron has given priority to a negotiated agreement that saves both Russia and Ukraine.
“We will have peace to build tomorrow, let’s never forget that,” Macron said Monday. “We will have to do this with Ukraine and Russia around the table. The end of the discussion and negotiations will be set by Ukraine and Russia. But this will not be done in denial, or in exclusion, or even in humiliation. “
US officials are not so sure, although they assume that the end of the game depends on Ukraine.
“Our strategy is to make sure that Ukraine emerges from this winner,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said this week. “Ukraine will do this at the negotiating table. Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s position at this negotiating table as we continue to impose increasing costs on the Russian Federation.”
But high uncertainty about what a “victorious” Ukraine is has worried officials in some European capitals, especially those in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are NATO members bordering Russia and particularly worried about Moscow’s possible future intentions.
For the Baltic states and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank, the threat is real, and memories of Soviet occupation and rule remain fresh. They say Russia’s concessions in Ukraine will only encourage Putin to push further west.
“Honestly, we’re not talking about the final yet,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Associated Press in an interview Monday. He said any territorial concessions in Ukraine would lead to a world in which “rule-based order” has been replaced by “jungle rule-based order”.
Landsbergis suggested that Western nations make public statements about what success would be. “Where will we take into account what we would take to win, an actual victory? What would be the scenario we would like?”
Landsbergis was outspoken in calling for Putin to be ousted as Russian leader, surpassing the position of the United States and that of other NATO leaders. According to him, regime change in Moscow is the only way to protect European and Western security in the long run.
“It is much easier for me to say that we need a regime change in Russia, so we were quite frank and open about it,” he said. “It may be much harder for the United States to find out about this, but at some point we still need to talk about it because it’s so important.”
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