I registered on the Trends channel on social media after the first period of Game 5.
The Maple Leafs were in the midst of what looked like another infamous crash, being trampled by Tampa Bay Lightning and fortunately escaping 2-0 in the first 20 minutes, although they were beaten 14-4.
The mood in Toronto, as is usually the case at this time of year, was bleak.
Trend number 1? Not Leafs or Austin Matthews or any of the other stars who performed less in 20 minutes.
It was Kyle Dubas. Of course.
Maple Leafs gathered on Tuesday for one of the franchise’s most impressive returns in decades. Against the two-time defensive champions and facing a deficit in the second and third periods, they dominated the game, accumulating 71% of the expected goals in the last 40 minutes.
Their stars scored one after the other – John Tavares, Morgan Riley, William Nilander and then Matthews – including a furious three-goal streak in 10 minutes in the third period.
The crowd forgot to fire the general manager for another night.
It was May 11, 2018 – today four years ago – Leafs made Dubas one of the youngest GMs in NHL history.
The decision was very controversial. Team president Brendan Shanahan had just shown Lou Lamoriello, a decorated CEO in the Hall of Fame who won three Stanley Cup championships with the Devils, the door after the then-record 105-point season.
The rise of Dubas, who was just 32 years old, from GM in the Marlis minor league to the big club shattered the fan base. Some wanted Lamoriello – who had spent three years helping to revise the list last in 2016 – to stay. Others liked the option of the stubborn AGM Mark Hunter to get a promotion in the big chair, due to, they claimed, his scout flair.
Dubas had his supporters along the way, but the fact that he was young, inexperienced and, well, different – ie. used analysis – means that from this day in 2018, each move comes with additional control.
It was no surprise then that before those playoffs began, even after the Leafs had amassed a record 115 points, there were headlines calling for Dubas to be sacked if they did not remove the round 1 defense.
And hey, those columns could still come out again. The leaves could still blow that. We’ve certainly watched this game over and over again – just as it looked like it was about to start in Game 5.
This is a team that has never been able to perform in its greatest moments – and a franchise that has not won a round since Dubas was a teenager – and that must try to eliminate Lightning, perhaps the best team from talents of the NHL pay ceiling era. Whether Leafs can win game 6 in Tampa or, if they fail, play game or die 7 at home is a fair and honest question.
However, the fact that they are so close speaks for itself. As well as the fact that they have collected two of the best regular seasons in the history of the franchise, with only Avalanche winning more matches in the regulations since the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
Success in the playoffs is the star of it all. But progress is undeniable.
Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan. (Credit: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Dubas inherited a talented but flawed team in 2018, with a porous blue line and some ineffective veterans with big contracts. Moving money to pave the way for what would be (again) controversial second contracts for his young stars was a huge early priority.
Mistakes were certainly made in this process. Dubas exchanged very good players (Nazem Kadri) and selected players from the first round, sometimes without enough in return. He also made bets on players with skills such as Tyson Barry who did not pay.
And the signing of Tavares is something that will continue to be discussed as the Leafs captain enters the last half of his seven-year term.
But there is also a clear evolution in Dubas’ philosophy of team building during his time as GM, perhaps because of something the front office has seen in their own behind-the-scenes data, or perhaps simply because the results are being played on the way they are in the postseason.
Whatever the reason, the last two seasons have been significant leaps for Leafs as their young stars have matured and the supporting cast has improved – especially in the back.
So much of the focus with this team, appropriately, rests on the four big names inherited from Dubas as GM: Matthews, Mitch Marner, Nylander and Rieli. Leafs will probably always be a respected team with this as a core; the work for Dubas, starting in the spring of 2018, was to complement this quartet well enough to one day defeat truly elite NHL teams.
Like the Lightning 2021-22.
The Lamoriello Club, formed four years ago with Ron Hainesy and Nikita Zaitsev playing the first four minutes in defense, failed to do so, even when the young stars played for peanuts under entry-level contracts. And what happened on Long Island recently seems to highlight how his methods may have evolved in the long run in Toronto.
What is clear is that in the following years the blue line of Leafs became significantly better, thanks to the exchange of Jake Musen (2019), Mark Giordano and Ilya Lubushkin (both this season), plus the brilliant signing of a free agent in TJ Brodie (2020). You can add two analytically substantiated findings in Justin Hall (spotted in the ECHL in 2015) and Timothy Lillegren (the 2017 draft) that Dubas is the driving force.
There’s also the fact that the Leafs discovered a rough diamond in the netminder Jack Campbell (2019), who starred in a star-studded performance in Game 5 with several amazing saves.
Overall, this is a defensive core with a budget – these seven players make less than 20 million combined – which is the best group the Leafs have had there since Pat Quinn’s teams since the early 2000s.
Somehow, Leafs also managed to fill the front lineup for the song, adding Michael Bunting, Ilya Mikheev, David Kampf, Ondrej Kasse, Jason Spca and Colin Blackwell for $ 1.65 million or less in the last few years.
Although the Leafs stars are the right focal point on this list, they now have more help than ever, help that is an integral part of achieving this 3-2 series lead over Lightning.
Whether this is enough and whether the best Leafs players can finally perform in an elimination match will be answered in one way or another in the coming days.
However, whether Kyle Dubas has done a solid job as GM at Leafs has been answered quite routinely over the past two seasons.
It is not so accidental to win in this league.
This may be a controversial thing to say in this market, given that it took four years to get here. But at this point it is difficult to deny.
And winning this series would be the last confirmation.
(Photo above: Renee Johnston / Toronto Starr via Getty Images)
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