When the war broke out in Ukraine, many experts predicted that Russia’s powerful air force would play a key role in securing a quick victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Not only did this prediction not come true, but the Russian Air Force did not have a major factor in the war at all.
Russia has one of the largest air forces in the world with 1,511 fighter jets against 98 of Ukraine, according to Flight Global’s 2022 World Air Force Handbook. In March, The Economist wrote that Russia has spent billions of dollars over the past decade on military aircraft that are said to be “as advanced as anything the rest of Europe has to offer.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also feared the threat of a Russian attack from above and made numerous (unsuccessful) requests at the beginning of the invasion for Western forces to create a no-fly zone over his country.
However, Russia has failed to establish air superiority over Ukraine and continues to lose aircraft as a result of Ukraine’s anti-aircraft weapons, which include technologically advanced equipment provided by NATO countries. Sean Spunts, editor-in-chief of the military publication SOFREP, told Newsweek that there are a number of reasons why he believes Putin’s air campaign has been ineffective.
One major problem for Russia is “the sheer size” of Ukraine, making it an inconvenient place to target from the air, Spoonts said. He said another problem was that Russia’s air fleet had only about 70 percent success in lifting planes into the air. (In contrast, Spoonts said U.S. forces had a flying rate in the 1990s.)
Spoons said the Russian military is also struggling with “higher maintenance costs” and “higher delivery costs”, making it impossible to replace destroyed or damaged aircraft and equipment.
A military expert from SOFREP said that a number of reasons explain why the Russian Air Force did not live up to expectations in Ukraine. Above, Russian planes fly in line over central Moscow during the Victory Day military parade on May 9, 2021. Photo: KIRIL KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP via Getty Images
On Monday, The New York Times reported that Russia had passed through much of its stockpile of cruise and ballistic missiles and was increasingly relying on the dropping of “dumb” unguided bombs. During a briefing, a senior Defense Ministry official said sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to replenish its arsenal, with components used for guided missiles being an important piece of equipment that is limited.
Spoons added that Ukrainian forces have also been surprisingly successful in thwarting Russia’s airstrikes. He said Ukraine had anti-aircraft capabilities at both high and low altitudes, which “denies the Russian air force the ability to act freely.”
“So Zelensky doesn’t really need a no-fly zone,” Spoons said. “The Russians are not even able to maintain local air superiority over their own forces, because you see Ukrainian drones flying over Russian forces and dropping bombs.
Spoonts said SOFREP found that while Russia had its own GPS satellite navigation system, it did not use the equipment. He said this led the SOFREP team to think the system was broken or its signal was jammed by another country. Instead, the Russians are relying on Garmin’s GPS systems, he said.
Discussing the enormous size of Putin’s air force, Spentz said Russia had not used all of its planes.
“It is inexplicable for us [SOFREP] why they don’t use their planes anymore, “he said. He added that the lack of parts, the low success rate in lifting planes in the air and restrictions on the main launch of blunt bombs have led Russia to limit its use of its air fleet. .
Newsweek turned to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.
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