More than three weeks ago, Russia launched a new phase of its war in Ukraine: an effort to take control of the Donbass region in the east. This new goal was a significant step up from its original goal of regime change in Kyiv and one that seemed more achievable. Many observers believe the offensive could bring enough concrete profits for Putin to say “mission accomplished” on May 9, a Russian holiday called Victory Day, marking the defeat of Nazi Germany.
But when the day came, Putin didn’t say much. Maybe it was because he had nothing to boast about.
A May 9 US intelligence assessment concludes that the Russians have earned only a few miles in the Donbass region since the start of the offensive; a Pentagon official described Russia’s efforts as “gradual and somewhat anemic.” The purpose of the offensive – a large-scale offensive cutting off Ukrainian forces in the Donbass from the rest of the country – seems increasingly unattainable.
“Obviously they lack the strength to achieve this operational scheme,” said Michael Coffman, an expert on the Russian military at the CNA think tank. “The offensive does not lead to dramatic gains and there seems to be very little chance of a total breakthrough.”
What Russia’s unimpressive offensive means for the big picture of the war is less clear.
During the first phase of the war, when the heaviest fighting was concentrated in Kyiv, Russian forces managed to engulf large sections of the Donbass – advancing as much as 80 percent of the region, according to a local Ukrainian official in late April. Therefore, repelling the current Russian offensive is not enough for Ukraine to achieve a complete victory in the region; to do so, its forces will have to go on the offensive and regain significant amounts of land.
Some experts believe that the Ukrainians are capable of doing just that – that the Russian offensive will soon subside and, most likely, will collapse in full-scale defeat. Others are more skeptical, noting that the Ukrainians have not proven their offensive abilities and have also suffered significant losses. They anticipate a number of possible outcomes, including a stalemate with established lines on both sides or a ongoing conflict in which the two sides are constantly exchanging territory.
But while much remains unpredictable about the war in Ukraine, it is fair to say that the range of plausible results is shrinking. When Russia launched its invasion in late February, it seemed likely that Moscow would eventually succeed in overthrowing the Ukrainian government. Now this possibility is almost unthinkable, and even a limited victory to quell the Ukrainian presence in Donbass seems unlikely at best.
Russia’s current territorial possessions in Ukraine give it some leverage during any (still hypothetical) peace talks. But victories on Ukraine’s battlefield mean that Russia, in almost every plausible scenario, will fall far short of its original military goals. There are fewer and fewer favorable end games for Russia, and it’s hard to see how that can change.
How do we know that Russia’s offensive is slowing down
Donbass is the easternmost region of Ukraine, stretching from Luhansk to around Mariupol in the south and bordering directly on Russia and Russian-held territory in southern Ukraine. Fighting has been going on in the region since 2014, when pro-Russian separatists launched a war against the central government in the eastern regions of Donbas. Before the invasion in 2022, these fighters controlled about a third of the Donbass; Much of Russia’s military propaganda focuses on the need to “protect” the pro-Russian population in Donbas from alleged Ukrainian genocide.
There was no such genocide. From the very beginning, the Russian invasion was an act of aggression – an attempt to establish control over Ukrainian territory and overthrow its government. Part of the early attack involved moving west through the Donbass, which expanded the region, nominally under Russian control.
However, as most of its forces are employed elsewhere in Ukraine, Russia has failed to consolidate its control of the region. Ukrainian defenders in Izyum, a city in the Kharkiv region just northwest of Donbass, held back Russian invaders from the north for an impressively long time – gaining time for the United Forces, Ukrainian battle-tested Ukrainian fighters in Donbass to strengthen their positions.
Russia’s current efforts in Donbass, described as the “second phase” of the war, appear to have been aimed at finally crushing the Allied forces by tearing them away from the rest of Ukraine. To do this, Russian forces tried to move down from the north, out from the east and up from the south.
This April 22 map from the Institute for War Studies (ISW) shows the situation at the beginning of the Donbass-focused offensive. Russian-controlled territory is in red; the points of great conflict with the Ukrainian forces are surrounded by green:
Institute for the Study of War
To see how small profits these efforts have brought, compare the map above with the May 9 update of ISW. The lines of Russian control between the two countries hardly moved; most of the fighting is in the same areas as in April:
Institute for the Study of War
Part of the reason for this slow progress is design. Unlike the failed Russian attack on Kyiv, which was characterized by an attempt to capture the Ukrainian capital with a lightning offensive, Russian forces are now trying to advance gradually, using their greatest tactical advantage, superior artillery, to soften the ground before attempting to take it. .
But even by these standards, the Russians are making little progress. Military analysts say encircling the Joint Forces is a very distant prospect at the moment.
“This is too slow to be achieved any time soon,” said Simon Schlegel, senior analyst for Ukraine at the International Crisis Group. “Ukrainian forces have had time to strengthen their positions [and] they have already received their first supplies of heavy Western weapons, which they are now using there – probably just in time to stop this Russian offensive.
Even in Mariupol, a large city in southern Donbass that has been on the brink of collapse for weeks, Ukrainians continue to resist. The latest group of fighters, hidden in the Azovstal steel plant, is still preventing Russia from exercising full control over the city.
While Russia failed to achieve much success, Ukraine launched counter-offensives, attacking near Kharkiv and Izyum to the north and Kherson to the south. The attack in Kharkiv is a particular threat to Russia, as Ukraine’s progress threatens supply lines supporting the Donbass offensive.
As a result of the problems of the Russian offensive, there is already a reorientation in Russian efforts towards the city of Severodonetsk, which, according to Coffman, reflects the strategic abandonment of the plan for a large environment at the very beginning of the offensive.
“I think their goal is essentially to turn this into a pocket and then try – because they are not able to complete a larger encirclement of Ukrainian forces operationally – to take these smaller shells and try to push out Ukrainian forces from Donbass one piece at a time, “he said.
But experts are skeptical that this new approach will also lead to huge profits.
At the moment, Russia does not seem to have the ability to insist indefinitely and resell its World War II book, crushing its adversary with huge numbers. Putin has not transferred his country to full war, maintaining an internal fabrication that Russia is engaged in a “special military operation” and not in a total war with Ukraine. Full mobilization will take time – requiring training, equipment and deployment of reserves – and there are no signs of starting this work. Some Western officials believed that Putin’s Victory Day speech might have been an opportunity to launch a wider mobilization, but nothing in the Russian president’s address suggested that it was on the cards.
As a result, Russia must use the forces it already has to take over Donbass. And the evidence that is publicly available suggests that this is not enough.
“The second phase has been going on for a month and the Russians have had little success,” wrote Lawrence Friedman, a professor of strategic research at King’s College London. “The Russians have amassed whatever forces they can muster for this last push, with few reserves left, and they don’t seem to be enough.
Why Russia is stumbling and what might happen next
The reasons for Russia’s difficulties in Donbass will not surprise anyone watching the war closely. Again and again, post-conflict analysts point to the same set of factors as decisive:
- Poorly designed initial invasion in February, which gave Ukraine time to prepare its defenses
- Failure to effectively use its advantage in the air force
- Excellent Ukrainian morale and organization, which makes Ukrainian forces more willing to resist, and Russian fighters are more likely to abandon the battle
- Unstable logistics are slowing Russia’s progress
- Insufficient workforce to successfully conquer disputed territory, especially in an urban environment that is highly supportive of defenders
- Western military aid and intelligence support boost Ukraine’s combat capabilities, while Western sanctions weaken Russia’s ability to make up for material losses
At the beginning of the offensive in Donbass it was not clear how much …
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