On the eve of Cop26, the UK government used the mantra “money, coal, cars and trees to keep the world up to 1.5C” to highlight four key areas that the conference will focus on.
Cash
At Cop26, rich countries had to deliver on a long-held promise made in 2009 to provide $ 100 billion a year to finance the climate of the developing world by 2020.
The actual amounts provided are still insufficient, but developed countries have provided evidence that they will deliver on the promise this year or next, with an average of five years from 2020 to 2025 of about $ 100 billion. Developing countries have also been promised a new financial settlement that will have greater flows than 2025, with details yet to be decided.
In the coming months, however, there has been little progress on Cop26’s promises of money. Rachel Kite and Lord Stern, both former senior World Bank officials, told the Guardian of several concerns about World Bank climate programs. Stern said the bank’s resources would be stretched by the additional burdens of high energy and food prices around the world and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
Kite questioned whether the World Bank was really committed to fighting climate change: “[The World Bank’s] the poor performance in Glasgow and the continuing questions about their appetite for urgent action mean that coalitions are being formed without them at the helm. The broader question of whether the institutions in Bretton Woods are suitable for the purposes of the climate crisis is growing.
The private sector has also been subject to closer scrutiny. The GFANZ network – Glasgow’s Financial Alliance for Net Zero – was announced with fanfare by Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England and a UN envoy for climate change. However, it is not clear how much of this flows to the poorest countries, which need it most.
There are also questions raised by the Guardian’s carbon bubble investigation into whether investors are pouring more money into fossil fuels, now enjoying a bonus rather than clean technology. There is little to stop GFANZ’s rules. Carney said it is the job of governments to regulate and provide incentives to push capital in the right direction: “Finance will not drive the transition to zero on its own. Finance is a catalyst that will accelerate what governments and companies initiate. If there is a commitment to move to a sustainable, sustainable and fair energy system and the right policies are made, the finances will be there. ”
coal
Coal was a clear focus of Cop26, although some of the UK’s initial success in phasing out coal commitments has proved less solid than claimed. Coal also became a hotspot in the final stages of the talks, as China and India refused to sign a “phasing out” of coal and demanded that the term be changed to “phasing out”.
Since then, new evidence of coal expansion has emerged as Covid’s recovery has accelerated and the war in Ukraine has prompted some countries to consider returning coal or delaying its phasing out.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that coal should be at the forefront of Cop27: “The biggest risk is the growing appetite for infrastructure investment in coal. If we can’t slow this down or stop it, we can lock up our future … If I had to pick a problem [for Cop27]it will be this one. ”
Cars
Electric vehicle sales doubled in key markets last year as manufacturers increased production and consumers embraced new models. But the future of the market this year seems more uncertain; the war in Ukraine disrupted key supply chains, and Volkswagen in Germany said earlier this month that it had sold electric vehicles this year to its EU and US markets. Other manufacturers are also struggling with rising costs and looking for alternative sources for components.
Many green activists are also concerned that talking about cars is the wrong trick – they say we need to talk about transport. Investing in public transportation, making it cheaper or even free, is one of the fastest ways to reduce oil demand, according to the IEA.
trees
The UK has put forest action at the heart of Cop26, bringing together world leaders to discuss forests and land use, and a separate two-day program of events. The agreement to halt global deforestation, signed by China, the United States and Brazil, among other nations, was the first major two-week victory in Glasgow.
But in recent months, the rate of deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon has risen to devastating record levels, and the Congo report, one of the world’s most important tropical rainforests, has called into question the government’s willingness to take action to stop logging. and destruction.
Meanwhile, another key forest meeting this year – the Convention on Biological Diversity (scheduled to take place in Kunming, China, in 2020, but postponed) – is now unknown due to the Chinese government’s response to the revival of Covid-19. Whether and when the conference will take place is unknown at this time.
Lord Goldsmith, the UK’s minister in charge of Cop26’s forestry efforts, was in a frenzy of diplomacy this year to support the forestry deal. He said the United Kingdom wanted world leaders to meet every year to discuss progress. “The contribution of forestry to the overall necessary emission reductions worldwide is potentially huge. This could contribute around 10% -15% to the global emissions target. “
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