About a third of the country’s approximately 10,000 fish and chips restaurants could close in the next nine months, said Andrew Crook, president of the National Federation of Fish Fryers. The crisis is the worst he has seen, he told CNN Business.
The trade group represents 1,200 fish and chips businesses and has been operating for more than a century.
Crook, who owns his own store, said prices began to rise towards the end of last year, but the price of basic ingredients has risen since late February, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
“On the other hand, it’s all up,” Crook said.
Businesses in various industries are struggling with rising prices as supply chain rumors have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. But British fish and chips stores, which traditionally operate at very narrow margins, are particularly heavy due to the industry’s dependence on Russian imports.
Up to 40% of the cod and haddock in the industry come from Russian waters, and about half of the sunflower oil is imported from Ukraine, Crook said.
Businesses are paying about 83 percent more for sunflower oil than in early March, according to Crook. Palm oil, a common alternative, has doubled in price. Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of palm oil, began restricting exports last month to help maintain domestic supplies. Adding to the pain are tearful energy bills and rising prices for fertilizer needed to grow potatoes.
Fish and chips is one of the unofficial national dishes of the United Kingdom. The first stores opened in the 1860s and spread rapidly as the country industrialized, helping to feed factory workers, according to the trade group. During World War II, as the government regulated other staple products such as tea, butter, meat, fish and chips, it was so important to the working class.
Customers expect their fish and chips to be cheap, Crook said. A year ago, the average price for common fever and chips would have been around £ 7, Crook said. He now estimates it at around £ 8.50 – a 21% increase.
“We run the risk of getting out of the market … trying to keep the increases as low as possible,” Crook said. Some have already deviated.
“I lost some regular customers who came every Friday,” he added.
Fears that the UK government will impose tough tariffs on Russian whitefish imports have prompted businesses to stock up on alternatives, further raising the price of Icelandic and Norwegian fish that Crook buys.
The price of a box of Icelandic cod is now £ 270 ($ 331), up from £ 140 ($ 176) at the time last year, Crook said.
Businesses like Crook’s face the daunting task of selling fish and chips to customers facing the worst cost of living crisis in decades. Annual consumer price inflation reached 7% in March, its highest level in 30 years, and could reach 10% later this year, according to the Bank of England.
More than half a million small businesses in the UK – about one in 10 – plan to close, cut or sell next year as many struggle to secure funding, according to a study by the Small Business Federation.
For Crook, the fate of his store is personal.
“It’s more than just a job. For many of us, we’ve run family businesses,” he said. “I’m a second-generation in business – and you don’t want it to fail in time.”
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