ANKARA, Turkey – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thrown a wrench into historic decisions by Sweden and Finland to seek NATO membership, saying he could not allow them to join due to their alleged support of Kurdish extremists and other groups, Ankara said. threaten its national security.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed confidence that the alliance will join Sweden and Finland quickly. But Erdogan’s declaration suggests that the two Scandinavian countries’ path to membership may be anything but smooth.
Turkey’s approval is crucial because the military alliance makes its decisions by consensus. Each of its 30 Member States can veto a new member.
Erdogan’s government is expected to use the two countries’ membership bids as leverage for concessions and guarantees from its allies.
Here is a look at Turkey’s position, what it can gain and the likely consequences:
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WHAT IS THE PROBLEM OF TURKEY WITH MEMBERSHIP APPLICATIONS?
Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has traditionally supported NATO enlargement, believing that the alliance’s “open door” policy enhances European security. For example, she spoke in favor of the prospect of Ukraine and Georgia joining.
Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden and Finland stems from Turkish discontent with Stockholm – and to a lesser extent Helsinki – perceived support for the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party or PKK, left-wing extremist group DHKP-C and followers of US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah whom Ankara claims was behind a failed coup attempt in 2016.
Many Kurds and other exiles have taken refuge in Sweden in recent decades, as have members of the Gulen movement recently. According to Turkish state media, Sweden and Finland have refused to extradite 33 people wanted by Turkey.
Ankara, which often accuses its allies of turning a blind eye to security concerns, is also outraged by restrictions on the sale of military equipment to Turkey. They were imposed by EU countries, including Sweden and Finland, following Turkey’s military invasion of northern Syria in 2019.
Reiterating his objection, Erdogan says his country does not want to repeat the “mistake” of Ankara, which agreed to re-admit Greece to NATO’s military structure in 1980. He said the action allowed Greece to “take attitude against Turkey ”with NATO Support.
WHAT CAN TURKEY EARN?
Turkey is expected to seek a compromise agreement, according to which the two countries will strike against the PKK and other groups in exchange for Turkish support for their accession to NATO. A key demand is expected to be that they stop any support for the Syrian Kurdish group, the Kurdish People’s Protection Squad or the YPG. The group is a Western ally in the fight against Islamic State in northern Syria, but Turkey sees it as a continuation of the PKK.
Erdogan may also seek to use the membership of Sweden and Finland to extort concessions from the United States and other allies. Turkey wants to return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program, which was scrapped after the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense systems. Alternatively, Turkey is looking to buy a new batch of F-16 fighters and upgrade its existing fleet.
Other possible demands could include lifting the unofficial embargo on military sales to Turkey by allies; concessions from EU member states on Turkey’s failed bid to join the bloc; and increased funds to help the country support 3.7 million Syrian refugees.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT TURKEY’S IMAGE IN THE WEST?
Turkey’s threat to veto is likely to undermine its own status in Washington and NATO, boosting the image of a country blocking the alliance’s expansion for its own gain. With this move, Turkey also risks damaging the credit it has earned by supplying Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 armed drones, which have become effective weapons against Russian forces.
“There is no scenario in which Turkey is not seen as a mole of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin in NATO,” said Soner Kagaptai, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute. “Everyone will forget the PKK objections. Everyone will focus on the fact that Turkey is blocking NATO enlargement. This will distort Turkey’s view through (NATO). “
Kagaptai said hindering Turkey could also undo the “positive momentum” that has begun to build in Washington over the sale of the F-16. “I don’t see this sale going at this point,” he said.
IS TURKEY TRYING TO PLEASE RUSSIA?
Turkey has built close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and is trying to balance its ties with both. She refused to join the sanctions against Russia, while supporting Ukraine with drones that helped give up Russia’s air superiority.
“The fact that Erdogan is derailing the (NATO) process deliberately suggests that he may be trying to balance Turkey’s strong military support with Kyiv with Russia’s political support,” Kagaptai said.
A senior Turkish politician also expressed fears that the membership of Finland and Sweden could provoke Russia and ignite war in Ukraine. Devlet Bahceli, a nationalist party leader allied with Erdogan, said the best option would be for the two Scandinavian countries to remain in the waiting room.
CAN ACCESS HELP ERDOGAN’S EVALUATION AT HOME?
The Turkish leader is witnessing a decline in domestic support due to an unstable economy, sharply rising inflation and a crisis in the cost of living.
Confrontation with Western countries over the emotional issue of alleged support for the PKK could help Erdogan strengthen his support and garner a nationalist vote ahead of the June 2023 elections, which are currently scheduled.
“With declining domestic support as Turkey enters a critical election cycle, Erdogan is seeking a higher international profile to demonstrate his global importance to Turkish voters,” analyst Asli Aydintasbas wrote in an article published in the European Council on Foreign Relations. .
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