“What we see – which is great news – are signs that the BA.2 wave is declining.”
The sixth wave of COVID-19, which spread across the province, reached its peak and began its decline, according to a member of the BC COVID-19 Modeling Group.
Soli Otto, a COVID-19 modeling expert, does not use the “sixth wave” description used across Canada to describe the current number of cases resulting from the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant, but instead refers to this period as the second Omicron. wave.
“What we’re seeing – which is great news – is signs that BA.2 is declining,” said Otto, an evolutionary biologist and mathematical model at the University of British Columbia. “We see [the decline] we also see it in wastewater in the number of cases over the age of 70, ”Otto said. “We will have a report on Wednesday.”
The decline is not sharp, Otto said, but there was a plateau last week and the growth rate has since been negative and sufficient to reassure modelers that it is on a downward trend. Infection rates for the second wave of Omicron are half as low as the first wave of Omicron in January and February, the highest number infected so far in the pandemic, she said.
If people have the feeling that many around them are getting or have recently had COVID-19, it is because we are falling from sky-high to near-heaven levels, she said.
Otto said he would not count on a summer respite.
“It’s not like the flu and there is still a high enough transmission speed to be able to get strong waves even during the summer season,” Otto said.
Summer will undoubtedly take people to more open areas where infection is less likely, but “I’m not sure we can count on summer without a wave,” Otto said.
Epidemiologists and modeling and public health experts have observed a number of Omicron sub-variants – Omicron BA.2.21 and BA.2.12.1, spreading here and in the United States, BA.5 and BA.5 causing peaks in South Africa.
Otto maintained that we currently have a good level of immunity against all variants of Omicron, but we are worried about the variants that may appear in a few months, when the immunity provided by third vaccinations falls.
“This will bring us back to a state where the next option can take off,” Otto said. She said that every next possible concern would have to overcome Omicron, and that would be a challenge because Omicron is more of an upper respiratory virus that is very easily transmitted.
Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, in an update last week on vaccination levels for health professionals, encouraged all those who did not have their booster to take it now and those who were feeling unwell to stay at home. Henry said that due to the high vaccination rate, people who now get COVID-19 do not get severe in most cases.
Henry predicts that BC will enter a period of “relative ease” for the next short time, but will have to pay attention to what could happen in the fall. “We need to be prepared to see a jump in the fall,” Henry said.
“I hope and expect that we will never have to issue orders that require people to do these things, as we did when we didn’t know what was going on for the last two and a half years,” Henry said, explaining people had learned about the layers of protection they need to stay safe.
Otto said he would be reluctant to raise people’s hopes of lifting the restrictions if necessary in the fall.
“I hope so, too,” Otto said. “I just think we need to be prepared and expect to be able to get a more portable uglier version. I think if you tell the public that there are no more restrictions, then it makes them angry when they turn around. “
ceharnett@timescolonist.com
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