Russia has given up trying to seize Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, a major target since Putin’s war. The significance of this moment should not be underestimated, even if we have heard it many times in recent months: it is a great, shameful defeat for Moscow. While early efforts to encircle Kharkov succeeded, the Russian army failed to turn this advantage into a conquest of the city as a result of its inability and failures elsewhere on the battlefield. Now these forces are withdrawing from the city to step up their efforts to the east.
This was not Putin’s plan; in fact, it wasn’t even his backup plan. After attempts to seize Kyiv failed, he wanted to continue attacks on Kharkiv while attacking Donbass. These two efforts would be a consolation prize. But now he has failed in the first and is behind schedule in the second. And even if he continues to make steady progress in Donbass, he will soon need reinforcements and it is not clear where he will find them in time.
Now Ukraine has the opportunity to redeploy troops from the north of the country to fight in the east. Putin knows this and seems to have instructed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to deploy his own forces near the border with Ukraine under the guise of military exercises. This directly threatens Kyiv and for now will have the effect of fixing the Ukrainian troops. This is another sign that Russia is increasingly concerned about the balance of power in Donbass.
Russia is also under pressure from Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson to the south, where they have now moved to defense rather than the previously planned offensive, pushing further west toward the main port of Odessa. However, Russia continues to launch missiles at Odessa, a key Black Sea city, although a full-scale attack on it now seems less likely.
So the whole picture is still complex, like all wars, but the subject is clear. Russia is losing again. It has either been defeated, postponed or pressed on most fronts, and none of its main goals have been achieved. Mr Putin is running out of time and opportunities: if his latest withdrawal does not generate enough combat power to destroy the Ukrainian army in the east, then he will be in real trouble. It is not clear if there is a backup to the backup option.
All of this could have been avoided if the Russian president had complied with the tenacity of Ukraine’s forces and political leadership and the determination of Britain, the United States and other Western countries to keep Ukraine in battle by supplying ammunition, intelligence and finance. But at least now he knows. Moreover, he will understand, like everyone else, that military power is ultimately limited; there are only so many times that he can make big mistakes.
Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander and chairman of the Cobra Intelligence Group.
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