For Doug Ford and his progressive conservatives, the Ontario election in 2022 is a “win big or go home” situation.
To win a second term, Ford must win a majority. This is because all opposition parties say they will not support the PC minority.
With 124 places to grab in Ontario on June 2, the magic number for the majority is 63.
The PC party won 76 seats in the 2018 election. The exact math says that the Ford party cannot afford to lose more than 13 of these races unless they manage to grab other seats, surpassing their results last time.
Here are the rides in which computers are most vulnerable, based on their margins for 2018, candidates for 2022 and information from strategists from all parties. If Ford’s party manages to stay in most of these seats, he will be on his way to a second term as prime minister.
Ottawa West Nepian
Of all the places that computers won in 2018, Ottawa West-Nepean came with the slightest advantage. Jeremy Roberts won by just one-third of a percentage point. The NDP has never before taken more than 16 percent of the vote in this ride, but it doubled that in 2018. If traditionally liberal voters who were either dissatisfied or voted for the NDP strategically in 2018 return to the lid, Roberts will be hard to hold on to. But if he still wins this seat, it would be a pretty strong sign that computers are looking at another majority.
Mississauga-Malton
There is a case to put all seven rides of Mississauga in this list. Voters here tend to swing like a bloc, and they’re a pretty good indication of the state of the country: in every election in Ontario for the past 30 years, every single seat in Mississauga has gone to the party that formed the government. All seven PC leaders are running for re-election, and if they all win again, the computers will be in very good shape. Among these places, their smallest difference in victory in 2018 came in Mississauga-Malton, where Deepak Anand won with 2,300 votes.
Scarborough was a frequent stop in the Ontario election campaign for all party leaders, including Andrea Horvat of the NDP. She made the announcement in Scarborough with the united educators on Tuesday morning after a televised debate across the province. (Chris Young / Canadian Press)
Scarborough Rouge Park and Scarborough Center
Computers won 11 seats in Toronto in 2018, a critical part of their victory. The party had not won a seat in the city since 1999. Four PC victories in the last election came to Scarborough, and you can tell (how often leaders have come here to campaign or make announcements) that parties expect these places to be air combat. The Tories won Scarborough-Rouge Park with less than 1,000 votes and the Scarborough-Center (where the incumbent does not seek re-election) with less than 2,000 votes.
Brampton West and Brampton South
Brampton is a battlefield. It’s no coincidence that Ford is launching Day 1 of its re-election campaign in this city. Computers took two important places in Brampton in 2018, both with a small difference. Amarjot Sandhu won Brampton West with just 490 votes, while Prabmit Sarkaria won Brampton South with 2,700 votes, and this time he could get a boost after his appointment to Ford’s cabinet. The other three seats in Brampton went to the new Democrats in the last election, and NDP leader Andrea Horvat led federal counterpart Jagmit Singh to a rally in the middle of the campaign here.
Three PC candidates from the Kitchener area joined Ford last week to re-announce the election campaign of his government’s promise to widen Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph. (Nicole Osbourne / Canadian Press)
Kitchener-Conestoga & Kitchener South-Hespeler
PC Party strategists are concerned about their chances of retaining those two seats, among their smallest wins in 2018, both with a difference of less than two percent. Mike Harris Jr., the son of the former prime minister, is running again in Kitchener-Conestoga, while personal computers bring out a political newcomer to Kitchener South-Hespeler: Crown Prosecutor Jess Dixon.
Cambridge
Seven lawmakers who won seats under the computer banner in 2018 were either expelled or left the party assembly. Some of these rides are considered safe computer seats, and some are not. Cambridge is among the least safe of the seven. Incumbent President Belinda Karachalios is running again, this time from the New Blue Party. It is incredibly rare for anyone outside the PC-Liberal-NDP to win a general election in Ontario: this has happened exactly twice in the last 70 years. Still, Karakhalios’ participation in the ballot may only make it difficult for PC candidate Brian Riedel.
Brantford-Brant
The NDP has high hopes that they can take over this ride from PC backbencher Will Bouma. The New Democrats have just 600 votes in 2018, and this time their candidate is Harvey Bischoff, the high-ranking former president of the Ontario High School Teachers’ Federation. Ford paid a special visit to the ride in March to announce a step towards a future overhaul of Brantford General Hospital, and highlighted Bouma as a star MPP.
Ford appeared with candidate Ross Romano at Sault Ste. Marie in the last week of the 2018 election campaign and Romano won the seat by just 1.3% ahead of her NDP rival. (Frank Gunn / Canadian Press)
Sault Ste. Marie
Another scream of victory for personal computers in 2018, driving Sault Ste. Marie went to Ross Romano with only 414 votes. Romano was promoted to office in 2019, Ford frequently visited Sault as prime minister, and his computer team chose to stop a valuable campaign, and there are probably signs of how much computers want to stick to this drive. Computers are confident that they can not only keep their three locations in Northern Ontario, but actually earn more in the region.
Von Woodbridge
Computers took all 10 seats in the York region in the last election, and five of those MPPs fell into Ford’s office. The only place the Liberals want to take from Ford the most in this region is Von Woodbridge, because Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca is running there. Del Duca was defeated here in 2018 by Michael Thibault of the PCs and must cancel almost 8,000 votes to win the rematch. If he fails, it is difficult to see how the Liberals will win anywhere in the York region, and it is also difficult to see how Del Duca would justify remaining as leader.
Ontario Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca chose a restaurant in his home, riding Von Woodbridge late last month, to announce his campaign promise to remove the provincial HST portion of prepared food for less than $ 20. Progressive Conservatives have won all 10 races in the York region, including Von Woodbridge, in the last election. (Nuclear Guzman / Canadian Press)
Eglinton-Lawrence
Although the collapse of the Liberal Party in 2018 led to the worst election result in the province in its history, the Liberals came close by 1.5% of winning this seat in downtown Toronto last time. Newcomer candidate Arlena Hebert will receive a lot of help from the liberal campaign in her efforts to regain this goal from Robin Martin from personal computers.
Barry Springwater-Oro-Medonte
Computers won this ride quite comfortably in the last election, with more than 7,500 votes, so it wouldn’t be a natural goal at first glance. But the Liberals managed to recruit longtime Barry mayor Jeff Lehmann as their candidate. Lehmann won three consecutive mayoral elections in the city, taking more than 90 percent of the vote in 2014 and 2018. Only the recognition of his name should give the Liberals a blow to the ballot. This ride will be a litmus test for Ford’s affordability performance, as more and more Bari residents travel to the GTA, making them particularly affected by the double whammy of rising house prices and rising gas prices. .
Durham
The candidate who won Durham for computers in 2018, Lindsay Park, is not running in this election. She split from the party last year over a dispute over her COVID-19 vaccination status. This leaves personal computers with a new candidate, albeit with links from sterling parties: Todd McCarthy is a senior partner in the law firm founded by the late Jim Flaherty, where she also practiced Christine Elliott. His liberal opponent, Granville Anderson, was a Durham MPP from 2014 to 2018, but was third in the last election, after the New Democrat candidate.
Ontario’s four main party leaders posed for a photo ahead of a May 16 televised election debate in Toronto. On the left are Ford, New Democratic Party leader Andrea Horvath, Liberal Party leader Stephen Del Duca and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner. (Frank Gunn / Canadian Press)
Ajax
Rod Phillips won Ajax in 2018 for personal computers, rose to finance minister, resigned after going on a Caribbean vacation during the pandemic, returned to the cabinet as long-term care minister, then abruptly announced no to run again. The NDP had the former mayor of Ajax as its candidate, but he was rejected for his support in naming a street after the captain of a Nazi warship. All this leads to a potentially wide open competition.
Peterborough-Cavarta
He is the only most reliable leader in Ontario politics: he went to the party that won the most seats in 12 consecutive elections (from the time when the ride was simply called Peterborough). Incumbent PC President Dave Smith did not run away with him in 2018, taking less than 38% of the vote, the third lowest share of all PC victories. But given the history of riding, if the people of Peterborough stick to it, it’s an equally good sign that Doug Ford will get a new term as prime minister.
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