The country’s new parliament remains largely divided between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi blocs. Hezbollah is still in command of the largest single parliamentary bloc, and the new political force is signaling that the country is once again heading for a costly stalemate. Yet within these apparently unchanging divisions, important political changes have taken place. Reformists outside Lebanon’s traditional political establishment have won about 10 percent of the seats. The reformists displaced, albeit slightly, the dominance of an old political elite.
This works against the most powerful political party in Lebanon. When the Hezbollah bloc lost the majority that had been at the heart of Lebanese politics for the past four years, it was an unusual failure.
The group had grown accustomed to victory over the years. In 2000, it expelled Israeli forces from southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation. In 2006, he maintained his position in the war against Israel when Israel tried to disarm the group. During the Syrian civil war, she successfully intervened on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and helped strengthen his defenses after the dictator forcibly suppressed a popular uprising against his rule. The group’s political influence appears to be growing steadily, despite an internal request – backed by Saudi Arabia – to limit the group’s strength, which is rapidly spreading beyond Lebanon.
But the weekend election marked a turning point. While Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, Amal, remained intact, a number of the group’s allies were ousted or beaten, mostly by reformists.
Analysts say this points to the loss of the group’s once huge mobilization force. This could be a sign of growing disillusionment among Hezbollah voters with the way it is dealing with a devastating economic crisis – and its growing tactics of intimidation against dissent, including its attempts to stifle the investigation into the Beirut port explosion in 2020. It is unclear how Hezbollah will respond to these losses or how the country’s new parliament will chart its course ahead amid the financial crisis. Those in parliament who oppose Hezbollah are a nascent group of parties and independent candidates, with Saudi Arabia’s allies in the right-wing Christian Lebanese Forces (LF), the largest parliamentary bloc among them. The LF is a civil war-era militia that has become a political party, far from the change the masses called for when national demonstrations engulfed the country in October 2019.
The country is at a crossroads. It may experience more than the instability of the last almost two decades: a series of deadlocks that are causing huge losses to the Lebanese economy. On the other hand, the new parliament is also raising the specter of what was previously unimaginable – Hezbollah’s political retreat.
This is a move that critics of the group, as well as some of its supporters, would like to see. Hezbollah should be happy to lose its “illusory majority” in parliament, Hezbollah analyst Salem Zahran said in an interview with Lebanese television LBC on Tuesday. Establishing a political distance from the spiraling crisis could help Hezbollah increase its popularity, he said.
Other analysts say the political withdrawal could also facilitate the ongoing government formation process and prevent further turmoil.
“This could be an opportunity for Hezbollah to give in tactically to some kind of economic recovery that will buy the country some time,” said University of London researcher Ibrahim Halawi. “Because otherwise it is a stalemate and will be very costly for a system that is already experiencing the severity of the economic crisis.”
In any case, the greater consequences of last weekend’s vote are clear. Most observers see the election as an accusation against a political elite that includes both Hezbollah’s coalition and its traditional rivals. Whether Lebanon’s leaders will take action and change course will determine the country’s fate.
CNN’s Ben Wedeman and Charbel Malo contributed to the reports
The digest
Clashes erupt in Libya as parliament-appointed prime minister tries to seize capital
Violence engulfed the Libyan capital on Tuesday as parliamentary-appointed Prime Minister Fati Bashaga tried to take over in Tripoli but was forced to return by UN-backed Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeiba and his rival administration, which has refused to step down. .
- Background: After two months of stalemate between rival Libyan administrations in the east and west of the country, Bashaga tried to enter Tripoli overnight, but withdrew after fighting broke out. Bashaga had said he would not use violence to take the capital.
- Why it matters: Violence between the two administrations brings back memories of divided Libya, where deadly battles took place in 2020, when then-Eastern Commander Khalifa Haftar launched an attack on the western capital. The current political stalemate has also already led to a partial blockade of Libya’s oil facilities, halving the country’s main source of foreign revenue.
Iranian state television broadcast footage of a French couple accused of espionage
Iranian state television on Tuesday showed details of the arrest of two French nationals earlier this month, saying they were spies trying to provoke unrest.
- Background: Iran has said it has arrested two Europeans for allegedly inciting unrest “by organizing trade union protests”. France condemned their detention as unjustified and demanded their immediate release.
- Why it matters: The incident is likely to complicate ties between Iran and France, as wider talks to resume the nuclear deal stalle. Two other French nationals have been detained in Iran on national security charges.
At least 70 were injured in a clash between Palestinians and Israeli police around the funeral
At least 20 people were arrested in violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces in East Jerusalem on Monday night, including five suspects in a car ramming attempt, Israeli police said on Tuesday. The Palestinian Red Crescent said Monday that 71 Palestinians were injured in clashes surrounding a funeral.
- Background: Six police officers were injured in clashes on Monday, including two who needed medical attention, Israeli police said. Violence erupted over the funeral of 23-year-old Walid al-Sharif, who died in hospital on Saturday from injuries sustained during riots at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem last month.
- Why it matters: The violence came just days after clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians at the funeral of Al Jazeera journalist Shirin Abu Akleh. Abu Aqle was shot in the head in the West Bank while repelling an Israeli military attack.
What to watch
“Sexual violence is a weapon of war for the destruction of communities,” said Iraqi Yazidi activist Nadia Murad, who is working to ensure that repressive regimes are held accountable for their crimes.
See her interview here:
Around the region
Britain’s colonial past is returning to public debate as Libya pushes for the return of what experts say is the 1,800-year-old marbles that currently adorn a park owned by the British Crown.
The marbles today make up the Temple of Augustus at Windsor Great Park, a royal mansion in Berkshire, England. But like many artifacts held by former colonial powers, marbles are not from the United Kingdom.
The architectural structures were originally built in Leptis Magna, a Phoenician settlement on the north coast of Africa in present-day Libya, Josephine Quinn, a professor of ancient history at Oxford University, told CNN, adding that they date back 1,800 years. .
The UN-backed Libyan government of national unity has not brought the case to court, but has sent letters through its lawyer to Crown Estate informing them of their demands, according to Mohamed Shaban, a London-based lawyer in charge of the case.
“For now, my instructions are to act easier and just start a dialogue in order to reach a friendly agreement with the crown,” Shaban told CNN.
“The Crown’s lawyers simply sent polite letters of detention, but nothing in substance,” he said, adding that “nothing is on the table, be it lawsuits in English courts or mediation through UNESCO’s mediation services.” The Leptis Magna site in Libya was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1982.
The Crown Estate told CNN that the Leptis Magna columns “were installed in Virginia Water in the early 1800s” and that they “remain on public display and are an important and valuable feature of the Virginia Water landscape.”
“They continue to enjoy millions of visitors to Windsor Great Park each year,” added Estate.
Leptis Magna and the marbles taken from the site have “shaped the Libyan identity”, said Hafed Valda, a UK-based Libyan archaeologist who supports their return. Libya’s cities are home to several Roman-era structures, many dating back to the 2nd century AD.
By Nadeen Ebrahim
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