It’s been a very interesting few days in Toronto since Maple Leafs bowed in Game 7 over the weekend.
Those four days were full of attempts to “go back” against “bloating.” In some circles this is a little too much. No one should be really surprised – no matter how shocked and outraged – that the coach and general manager of a team of 115 points from the NHL will return to the fold, especially not with how rarely a team has achieved this. (This has only happened 31 times in league history before this season.)
Yes, the Leafs failed. No, they did not fail spectacularly.
Most of the fans seem to be on board with this framing.
Do you agree that Maple Leafs will return their general and coach?
– James Myrtle (@mirtle) May 18, 2022
The point is also that the return of Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas does not mean that the list will return to one. In fact, there was no firm defense of the core of the Brendan Shanahan or Dubas list when they met with the media, as we have witnessed in the past.
Everything is not on the table here. But it’s a lot.
And it should be. What is quite clear, looking at the situation with the upper limit of Leafs’ salaries for next season, is that if they do not transfer a significant contract, it will be incredibly difficult for them to improve the list.
Obviously we will have all kinds of off-season coverage and analysis here at The Athletic in the coming months. But I think the starting point should be a deep dive into the portrait of Leafs’ hat and exactly how much space they have to maneuver.
Let’s start with the basics.
Maple Leafs 2022-23: NHL players under contract
Salary Limit Space: $ 11 Million Players Required: Seven
Leafs have many players targeting a free agency, between the UFA and the RFA. Yes, the core is signed, but the starting goalkeeper is not, as are two-thirds of the bottom six strikers and four members of the blue line.
With the $ 1 million salary cap increased, the end of Phil Kessel’s $ 1.2 million salary withholding and the $ 212,500 fine for exceeding Timothy Llegren’s bonus last season, an additional $ 2 million is available .
Morgan Rielly’s $ 2.5 million rise eats it all up, plus a little more, but at least there’s a buffer available to hold some of it.
In total, Leafs has 13 signed players, if we do not include prospects and additional parts like Kyle Clifford. They only have $ 11 million to fill the rest of the list, which is at least seven or eight more players.
Step 1 to create more space will be to find out what to do with Petr Mrazek. In the ideal world, they will be able to lose all $ 3.8 million in each of the next two seasons, but this will have to include some kind of sweetener that will be included in the contract.
Leafs had to go this way in the past with Patrick Marlowe and Nick Richie, which cost them a few decent choices. However, if the price for sweetening the deal will be unaffordable, there is another option.
Redemption.
The NHL redemption window opens on July 1 and lasts 12 days, until the day before the free agency. Since Mrazek makes less than $ 4 million, he is not eligible for the later, second buyout window, so Leafs will have to decide to use this option relatively soon if they want.
The purchase of Mrazek would mean a ceiling for each of the next four years: $ 1,033,333 for the following season, $ 833,333 for the next year and then $ 1,433,333 for each of the next two years.
It is a lot to lose a reserve goalkeeper. A better option would be to keep the $ 1 million salary and move it to another team, as this will only stick to the Leafs for two years against four.
It will be interesting to see what kind of market there will be for him even at this reduced rate, given his bad season and extensive history of injuries.
I’ll count it as a $ 1 million fee on the cap, which frees up $ 2.8 million and leaves Leafs with zero goalkeepers.
The 2022-23 Maple Leafs: Goodbye, Hate
Salary limit space: $ 13.8 million Players needed: eight
The other players we can point out here are the limited free agents: Ondrej Kase, Pierre Engval, Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Llegren. Kase and Engvall have arbitration rights, which gives them more influence in the negotiations; Sandin and Lilegren don’t.
This is an important factor in forecasting their contracts.
It is worthwhile to do a more in-depth dive in a full article for all four players to determine exactly what they will sign for. But I could see Kase’s situation as one in which the player simply accepts a one-way contract equal to the qualifying offer – in this case the same as his current salary, $ 1.25 million – to return, hopefully for a season in which he will have better health and organize a full campaign.
Engval will probably have more leverage, given his production this season, but one thing that works in Leafs’ favor is that he has really been more than a depth player in just one season. And even in his breakthrough year, he played only 13 minutes a night.
As a 26-year-old with just 168 NHL experience and 62 career points, Engval’s rivals are players like Zack Aston-Reese, Josh Leivo and Marcus Granlund, who all signed their deals for about 2% of the capital. That would be a $ 1.65 million hit for Engvall, which sounds almost correct.
Sandin and Lizgren’s contracts, meanwhile, really depend on whether they get a deadline or not. Given how tight the Leafs cap situation is, the right game can be to simply sign short-term bargains for bargains while playing all season in the top four and making more money.
Almost all of the comparable ones I could find for players like these two – young defenders without the right to arbitrate and with less than 100 games played in third roles – were for $ 1 million or less. I will write them down for a little longer, as their success will increase if they get a longer term – I remember two years, $ 1.55 million a season, which Yuso Valimaki signed with Flames last summer – but they are not will probably get big salaries this summer.
This helps Leafs a lot, assuming they can both take the next step.
The 2022-23 Maple Leafs: Hello RFAs
Salary ceiling space: $ 8.1 million Required players: four
Beyond this point, we enter into more speculative views of the list. How the situation with the Leafs goalkeepers will be arranged will obviously be complicated, given that they will need two goalkeepers with experience in the NHL. And they will have to find that, given their limitations.
The Leafs can simply sign on the fourth line – including simply bringing back Jason Spca – and be remembered as promising as Nick Robertson, and will have a team like last season, in addition to everything that’s going on at the door.
This route with their skaters will leave them $ 6.5 million to spend on these two goalkeepers – perhaps including Jack Campbell, who will probably command about $ 4 million – and an additional defender. In this scenario, they probably lost Ilya Mikheev, Mark Giordano, Ilya Lubushkin and Colin Blackwell from a free agency, erasing some of the depth they established in the 2021-22 season.
Honestly, it is difficult to see this list as an upgrade over last season’s team, except for some growth in young defenders, one of whom will probably play regularly in the top four for the first time.
In fact, in a way, it could be a downturn, with Jake Mouzin, John Tavares and other older players potentially declining as they move into their mid-30s.
So what is the alternative?
Mark Giordano and Timothy Lilegren. (Eric Hartline / USA TODAY)
All of the above is why the Leafs will have to dig deep and have some difficult conversations about key players they have committed to. The only way they can change their mix – beyond the goal – is by moving a significant salary and there are only so many options for that.
Austin Matthews is not going anywhere – Leafs’ intention will be to freeze a good enough team, so he died signing an extension in July 2023. Neither Mitch Marner nor Morgan Riley.
There is also no point in trading with TJ Brody, Michael Bunting or David Kampf, all of whom provide more value than their contracts. And John Tavares has a travel ban clause.
This does not leave a long list of names to consider.
One idea that intrigued me was to see what it would take to get Giordano back. I realize he’s rising, but maybe he’s willing to sign a discount for his hometown to end his Toronto career, allowing the Leafs to add a defender who gave them a solid 20 minutes a night in the playoffs for under $ 2 million. .
Would Giordano and another cheap defender with a free agent (ie Lyubushkin or something like that) be enough to replace Mucin and Hall, assuming that Sandin and / or Lilegren could play a bigger role next season? Could you do something interesting in advance with the extra $ 4 million and the change it will create?
Would you risk taking a step back at the back end, given that you would sacrifice a little experience?
That would be a little bold. But this is a plausible path that I see coming down here as a way to redistribute a little space and change the look of the list.
Salary limit space: $ 0.2 million Players needed: None
The other idea that Leafs might consider is to do something even more dramatic up front by moving some of your key parts.
If you want to experiment with Tavares on the wing, the way Lightning sometimes moves around Stephen Stamkos, can he play Matthews? Or could you view the Nylander in the center? Maybe try Marner there, as intended when he was attracted?
Or you want to add another center by pulling part of the cost of a cap away from the blue line and …
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