For the first time in weeks, Boris Johnson will not have to wonder this weekend if he is about to be ousted by Tories MPs outraged by the Partygate scandal. Following the end of a police investigation into a number of parties in Whitehall, some of the prime minister’s most ardent critics withdrew their letters of confidence from the 1922 Committee – which would have meant a vote on his leadership.
But there are other potentially damaging challenges ahead this summer that may give the impression that Johnson’s days are numbered.
Sue Gray’s report
A report by senior government official Sue Gray, who led the investigation into the Partygate scandal, is likely to be released next week.
There are reports that the document will be highly critical of Johnson, both for attending some of the events and for the culture in №10 under his leadership.
It could help answer whether the prime minister knew the rules were being violated. The language Gray uses will be key to how harmful Johnson’s revelations will be.
Study of the Privileges Committee
In another unwanted precedent, Johnson will face an investigation by the municipality into whether he lied to parliament about and attended Downing Street parties. No prime minister has been referred to the scrutiny committee.
The investigation is expected to focus on Johnson’s answers to questions from the Municipality in 2021 about reports that there were parties in number 10. He answered many questions with assurances that the rules and guidelines were followed.
The ministerial code, signed by the prime minister, makes it clear that ministers who deliberately deceive are expected to resign.
The committee will have broad powers to request documents and other evidence – such as photos, which could be particularly humiliating for Johnson – and to call witnesses. But Johnson will know that there is a built-in government majority in the seven-member commission, which may not want to remove him from office.
By-elections
After surviving the local election, Johnson is prepared for two more potentially damaging election battles in June. The Conservative Party will hope to meet the Lib Dem challenge in Tiverton and Honiton, where the party is second; and in Wakefield, where the Tories unexpectedly won in 2019 but now face a resurgent Labor party.
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Both competitions will carry the all-encompassing stench of Tory filth – the Devon seat was vacated by Neil Parish, who admitted to watching pornography twice in the City Hall. The seat in West Yorkshire is vacant after Imran Ahmad Khan resigned in April following his sentence of sexually abusing a 15-year-old boy.
Protocol for Northern Ireland
Johnson said the government will introduce a new law that will repeal the Brexit agreement it signed with the EU, which sets trade rules for Northern Ireland. He was applauded by Brexiter and DUP commentators, and the dispute with the EU did win approval from the Tories.
But he will have to avoid a few pitfalls that could have huge consequences for the UK. The EU has said it could start a trade war if the UK violates an international agreement; existing rules would allow the merchant bloc to impose tariffs on UK goods within seven days of a lawsuit or to freeze the entire trade deal. Alternatively, it may suspend parts of the agreement.
Any one-sided interruption could anger the Joe Biden administration, which is paying close interest in the island of Ireland. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a leading Democrat, said this week that Congress “cannot and will not support a bilateral free trade agreement” with the United Kingdom if it undermines the agreement.
Contingency tax
How to counter the growing cost-of-living crisis while raising money to pay for equalization is a problem that many Red Wall Tories want Johnson to tackle.
Ministers reportedly felt uncomfortable with the lack of political initiatives. Numerous reports say №10 is embroiled in a battle with Rishi Sunak’s treasury over how to respond to Labor calls for an unforeseen tax on energy companies, which are making huge profits from rising prices. Johnson was urged by the Tories to come up with an alternative.
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