When Vladimir Putin declared the invasion of Ukraine, the war seemed far from Russian territory. Yet within days, the conflict has subsided – not with cruise missiles and mortars, but in the form of unprecedented and unexpectedly large volleys of sanctions from Western governments and economic sanctions from corporations.
Three months after the February 24 invasion, many ordinary Russians are shaken by these blows to their livelihoods and emotions. Moscow’s vast shopping malls have become ominous spaces in closed shop windows once occupied by Western retailers.
McDonald’s – whose opening in Russia in 1990 was a cultural phenomenon, a sleek modern convenience coming to a dark country with limited choice – withdrew from Russia in full response to its invasion of Ukraine. IKEA, the epitome of affordable modern conveniences, discontinued operations. Tens of thousands of once secure jobs are now suddenly being called into question in a very short time.
Major industrial players, including oil giants BP and Shell and carmaker Renault, have left, despite huge investments in Russia. Shell estimates it will lose about $ 5 billion trying to unload its Russian assets.
As the multinational companies left, thousands of Russians who had the economic means to do so also fled, frightened by the heavy new government moves associated with the war, which they saw as a dive into totalitarianism. Some young men may also have fled for fear that the Kremlin would impose compulsory military service to power its military machine.
But escaping has become much more difficult than before – the 27 countries in the European Union, along with the United States and Canada, have banned flights to and from Russia. The Estonian capital, Tallinn, once an easy 90-minute weekend destination by air from Moscow, suddenly took at least 12 hours to reach via Istanbul.
Even independent travel via the Internet and social media is shrinking for Russians. In March, Russia banned Facebook and Instagram – although this could be circumvented by using VPNs – and closed access to foreign media websites, including the BBC, the US government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and German television. Deutsche Welle.
After Russian authorities passed a law calling for up to 15 years in prison for stories that included “fake news” about the war, many major independent media outlets closed or suspended operations. Among them were the Echo of Moscow radio station and Novaya Gazeta, the newspaper whose editor Dmitry Muratov shared the latest Nobel Peace Prize.
The psychological cost of repression, restrictions and shrinking opportunities can be high for ordinary Russians, although difficult to measure. Although some opinion polls in Russia show strong support for the war in Ukraine, the results are likely to be skewed by respondents who remain silent, wary of expressing their true views.
Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Moscow Center wrote in a comment that Russian society is currently under “aggressive obedience” and that the degradation of social ties could be accelerated.
“The discussion is getting wider and wider. You can call your fellow citizen a fellow citizen, but who happens to have a different opinion, a “traitor” and consider him a lower person. You, like top government officials, are free to speculate on the prospects of nuclear war. “This is (something) that was certainly never resolved in Soviet times during the Pax Atomica, when both sides realized that the ensuing damage was completely unthinkable,” he wrote.
“Now this understanding is diminishing and this is another sign of the anthropological catastrophe facing Russia,” he said.
The economic consequences are yet to be fully realized.
In the first days of the war, the Russian ruble lost half its value. But the government’s efforts to support it have actually raised its value to a pre-invasion level.
But when it comes to economic activity, “it’s a whole different story,” said Chris Weafer, a veteran analyst at Russia’s economy at Macro-Advisory.
“We see a deterioration in the economy now in a wide range of sectors. The companies warn that they are running out of spare parts. Many companies impose part-time workers, while others warn them that they must close completely. So there is a real fear that unemployment will rise in the summer months, that there will be a big drop in consumption and retail sales and investment, “he told the Associated Press.
The relatively strong ruble, as encouraging as it may seem, also poses problems for the national budget, Weafer said.
“They effectively receive their foreign exchange earnings from exporters and their payments are in rubles. So the stronger the ruble, it means they actually have to spend less money, “he said.” (This) also makes Russian exporters less competitive because they are more expensive on the world stage. “
If the war drags on, more companies can leave Russia. Weifer suggested that those companies that had just ceased operations could resume them if a ceasefire and peace agreement was reached for Ukraine, but he said the window could be closed.
“If you walk around the malls in Moscow, you can see that many of the fashion stores, Western business groups, have just removed the blinds. Their shelves are still full, the lights are still on. They just aren’t open. So they haven’t withdrawn yet. They are waiting to see what will happen next, “he explained.
These companies will soon be pressured to solve the problem of their Russian businesses, Weafer said.
“Now we get to the point where companies are running out of time, or maybe their patience,” he said.
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Follow all the stories of the AP about the war in Ukraine
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