With less than two weeks until election day, progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford continues to hold a commanding lead over his rivals.
A new study conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos between May 17 and 19 found that computers are leading in many key demographic groups and regions of Ontario.
If elections were held tomorrow, 38 percent of voters who chose to vote would vote for Doug Ford and RS. A total of 28% of voters would vote for Stephen Del Duca’s Liberal Party, and 23% said they would vote for the Ontario and Andrea Horvat NDP, according to the poll.
Mike Schreiner’s Green Party will receive six percent of the vote, with five percent meaning they will cast the ballot for another party. The percentage of people who would not vote is six percent of respondents, with 13 percent not deciding.
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“Opposition parties have failed to raise issues that could destroy the coalition that the Progressive Conservatives seem to have at the moment,” Darrell Bricker, chief executive of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News.
“It is clear that this is not a problem-based campaign at the moment. This is really the question of whether people prefer the incumbent to other options and whether they think it’s time for a change.
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Support for personal computers fell by only one percentage point since the start of the campaign, while the Liberals won two points. The NDP is down by two points and the Greens are up by one.
The poll comes a week after four Ontario party leaders clashed during a televised debate. The TV event was broadcast online, broadcast on radio and television channels in the province.
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Your computer’s approval rating remains strong
Doug Ford and computers also maintained a strong approval rate during the campaign, according to an Ipsos study.
More than half – or 52 percent – of people approve of the performance of Ford and his party. The poll shows that 15% strongly approve, and 37% somewhat support the computer record.
In fact, 41% of respondents believe that the PC government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, according to the Ipsos survey. Fifty-six percent believe it is time for a change.
The positive numbers on the computer have increased by one percentage point since the beginning of the campaign.
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Ford and PC Party lead or sit second in every Ontario region surveyed.
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In the decisive GTA-905, computers have a 14 percentage point lead over Ontario’s second-largest Liberal Party. The Ipsos poll shows that the RS will get 44 percent of the vote, with the Liberals having 30 percent and the NDP 17.
The Greens will collect five percent of the vote in 905, and four percent will go to other parties.
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In Toronto itself, Area 416, Ontario Liberals have a slight lead over personal computers. Del Duca’s party gave 32% support, compared to 30% for Ford’s progressive conservatives and 25% for Croatia’s NDP. The Greens registered eight percent support, and four percent went to other parties.
“This is a low-intensity campaign,” Bricker said. “People do not have a strong desire to reach this government, at least not enough of them in the right places, which causes a change in government.
The geographical breakdown is in favor of Ford computers
Ipsos also found that the PC Party leads among voters in rural and urban areas. A majority (53 percent) of rural voters would vote for the RS, compared to 20 percent for the Ontario Liberals and 16 percent for the NDP, the poll found. The Greens reported four percent support, with seven percent considering another party.
In Ontario’s urban and suburban areas, the Tories are also leading their rivals. Ipsos found that 36% of voters would support a candidate for the PC, compared to 29% for the Liberals, 24% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens.
A total of five percent would support another party in urban conditions.
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Other geographical areas in the province are divided as follows:
Southwest Ontario
- Computer: 36 percent
- Liberal: 22 percent
- NDP: 30 percent
- Green Party: 5 percent
- Other parties: 7 percent
Central Ontario
- Computer: 40 percent
- Liberal: 34 percent
- NDP: 21 percent
- Green Party: 2 percent
- Other parties: 3 percent
Eastern Ontario:
- PC: 41 percent
- Liberal: 28 percent
- NDP: 19 percent
- Green Party: 9 percent
- Other parties: 4 percent
Northern Ontario
- PC: 43 percent
- Liberal: 22 percent
- NDP: 23 percent
- Green Party: 5 percent
- Other parties: 6 percent
NDP in front with young voters
Age breakdowns tell a similar but not identical story.
The PC party leads voters aged 55 or over, according to an Ipsos poll. It states that 49 percent of the age group over 55 will vote for the Progressive Conservatives, compared to 28 percent for the Liberals and 16 percent for the NDP. Other parties won seven percent of the vote.
Computers are also used for voters aged 35 to 54.
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Among Ontario residents between the ages of 18 and 34, the Ontario NDP has a leading lead, according to an Ipsos poll. The party has 38 percent of the vote, compared to 28 percent for the Ontario Liberals and 17 percent for the RS. The Greens gave nine percent compared to eight percent for all other parties.
Six out of ten (57 percent) Ontario residents believe that Del Duca and the Liberals have a better chance of defeating Ford and his party. Four out of ten (43%) believe that Croatia and the NDP have a better chance.
The elections will be held on June 2, and the preliminary elections are open on May 19.
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METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos survey was conducted between May 17 and May 19 on behalf of Global News. For this study, a sample of n = 1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (1001) and by telephone (500). Quotas and weighting were used to balance the demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflected that of the population according to the census information. The accuracy of Ipsos online surveys is measured using a confidence interval. In this case, the survey is within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times 20, of what the results would have been if all Ontario residents had been surveyed. All sample surveys and surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error.
© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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