To say that a few weeks have been difficult for much of the southwest would be an understatement. Record heat, raging fires and a relentless drought hit the region.
Fire conditions will again be headlines this week from California to Texas, as more record temperatures scorch the region.
There is a red flag and heat warning in the Central Valley of California earlier this week. Temperatures will rise to the 1990s and even triple by Tuesday and Wednesday, where daily high temperature records could be set.
Heat, gusty winds and dry conditions will also help in conditions of increased fire.
“North winds, combined with low relative humidity values, will lead to critical fire conditions from Monday morning to Tuesday evening,” the Sacramento National Weather Service (NWS) office predicts.
The strongest winds are forecast on Tuesday, with steady winds of up to 25 mph and gusts of up to 35 mph.
And in the southwest, “Critical fire weather is returning to parts of the West this week with very hot and dry air combined with gusty winds,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “Thunderstorms with very little rainfall, but plenty of lightning, will also be possible over dry land in eastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado and western Texas. Texas is a state that desperately needs relief. Nearly 30% of Texas is in extreme drought, the highest number since 2012. At the beginning of the year, it was 0% drought. Abilene recorded 12 days in May with 100 degrees or higher temperatures. He set a record for the highest number of days in May with 100-degree temperatures. The previous maximum number of days for Abilene was 7 days, set in 1927 and compared in 2000.
Corps Christie recorded the third driest period February-May so far in 136 years of recordings.
But luck could change for parts of Texas this week, at least for West Texas.
“Our best chance of widespread rainfall for some time arrives late this afternoon until tonight,” said the National Weather Service (NWS) office in San Angelo. “Besides, as is typical of our spring rainy events, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms.”
Rain is forecast in much of the south this week.
“Total rainfall of 3 inches and with localized pockets of up to 6 inches from Monday to Tuesday can lead to sudden floods, despite the dry soils in the region,” said CNN meteorologist Hailey Brink.
And more rain will fall on Remembrance Day weekend.
Storm chronology
A cold front will cross the country as we enter the later part of the week, bringing rain and storms to much of the country just in time for the holiday weekend.
Although some things may change by the end of the weekend, we have a pretty good idea of what will happen.
Saturday:
This is the day when we can see the most activity when it comes to storms. The warm air in front of the front will also signal ups and downs and storms. As the front advances eastward, additional storms are possible.
The Cold Front will cross the plains and the upper Midwest on Saturday night.
“Although there is a wide spread of the model in terms of potential outcomes, it seems possible some convective development on Saturday night during the night,” according to the Center for Storm Forecasting (SPC).
Behind the cold front, pleasantly cool temperatures will dominate much of the middle of the country for a short time before temperatures rise rapidly for Remembrance Day.
Sunday:
If the weather on the front, which affects the plains and the Midwest, is accurate, then we should see some rain for the Ohio Valley on Sunday. “The development of thunderstorms, with some potentially strong ones, will be possible on the front,” the SPC said of Sunday’s threat.
The Center for Climate Forecasting (CPC) highlighted much of the plains and the Midwest for rainfall above next weekend’s average, but lower for the east coast. I still think we can get a picture of rain in the east, but again, it’s not certain.
The front should be a little weaker by the time it reaches the northeast, but it could still bring a series of rains and possible storms.
One thing is for sure: most will squeak like a fried steak on a hot layer of coals.
“Warm-ups with abnormal highs returning to the weekend in much of the plains, with the ’90s probably as far north as central Nebraska and even some of the low 100’s for parts of West Texas,” the WPC said. The West Coast may take a break, the WPC added: “A cooling trend will begin for the inner valleys of central California.”
The CPC also highlights the heat wave, with more than half of the country expected to reach above normal temperatures next weekend.
With temperatures of the 90s and triple digits, we can expect some thunderstorms in pop-up style for areas, especially south for Remembrance Day weekend.
And it may be a similar trend that we will see in the next few months. Nearly the entire neighboring United States is expected to have temperatures above normal this summer, which runs from June to August, according to the Center for Climate Forecasting on Thursday.
Memorial day:
Forecast models are not in good agreement after Sunday, which is very typical when you talk about something that happens after a whole week, but we will give you the best forecast we can at the moment.
See if storms are expected in your city
The SPC once again mentions possible storms for the plains, as well as the uncertainty of the forecast.
“Uncertainty is growing on Monday due to large differences in the model’s decisions,” the SPC said. “While there will be potential for organized storms in the north-central United States in the southern and central highlands, the uncertainty is too great to speculate on a specific scenario.
The conclusion is to be vigilant for rains and storms, especially in the middle of the country. Check the forecast again as Remembrance Day approaches to be aware of the changes in the forecast.
See your 10-day forecast here
Be aware of the weather, whatever your plans are outdoors. Have a plan so you can get to a safe haven if storms start to appear, which can happen very quickly during the hot summer months.
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