Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds
Odds Warriors +1.5 Mavericks Odds -1.5 Over / Under 215.5 Time 21:00 ET TV TNT Odds via BetMGM. Get current NBA odds here.
The Warriors secured their third straight win to begin the Western Conference Finals, and are now on the verge of returning to the NBA Finals.
Can Luka Doncic help the Mavs come back and run this series to five games, or will the Warriors complete the cleanup?
Let’s break it.
Curry’s movements are helping to attack the warriors
The Warriors dominated the series largely because of their flexibility in attack and defense. One of their role players, Otto Porter Jr. (leg), has been identified as suspicious of Game 4, so this may have little effect on their rotations.
The Warriors have a +14.2 Net rating this round and are powered by a 120.5 Offensive rating and a 106.3 Defensive rating – the best ratings in the conference finals.
They did so despite a 15.3% turnover rate, which is even higher than their regular season result of 15% (the second worst percentage in the NBA).
One of the great achievements for the Warriors in this series is the ability of Steph Curry to drive basketball. It creates a great look and the defense just can’t stop it. He averaged 28 points per game at 49.1% shooting, including 4.66 3s per game.
The drives are incredibly efficient, and Curry has 64.7% eFG% on attempts of less than 10 feet.
These discs are a bit atypical for Curry and throw Dallas’s defenses into disarray. The Mavs are so concerned about keeping Curry off the line with 3 points that they are giving up high-percentage views of the rim.
His odds are 27.5 for Tuesday’s match and he has cleared that in the last two games.
Part of the reason Curry was able to get these discs is due to the scheme, but the Mavericks are also tired. They have played almost the maximum number of games since the season – plus against tough opponents – and have now missed three consecutive games due to this constant traffic disruption that the Warriors are using.
Warriors are constantly moving, cutting and passing to generate a good look in attack, and the Mavericks usually play in a rotation of six. Those minutes and miles catch up, and if you’re not perfect defending Warriors, you don’t stand a chance.
Can Mavs shoot better with the ball?
The Mavericks have their backs to the wall after missing three consecutive games and now have to win four in a row to qualify for the NBA Finals.
One of the main problems Dallas has had in this series is to attack the Golden State zone defense. This hinders Mavericks’ attack and Luca’s ability to break the defense.
Although Dallas made an absurd 52% of his 3-point shots during that series, he managed to make only 33.3% of them, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The Mavericks failed to get a clean look. Their shooting difficulties – combined with their 42.1% rebound speed and 18.2% rebound speed in attack – do not allow them many opportunities for a second chance.
Dallas is clearly short of size and without additional capabilities can not compensate for its overall poor performance. The Mavs scored just 101.3 points per game during this series.
Warriors-Mavericks Peak
Historically, it has been profitable for teams to lose 0-3 in the NBA playoffs. These teams are 20-30-3 ATS and only 14-39 SU in this position since 2005.
The sample size shrinks dramatically if you limit it to the conference finals, but there are only 3-4 SUs and only once was the team preferred (2013 Memphis Grizzlies lost to the San Antonio Spurs).
The Warriors won convincingly every game with nine, nine and 25 points. Now, in this scenario you have to win, the Mavs are preferred by 1 point.
When teams are in a mandatory victory scenario, it usually means that something went wrong. Although the Warriors may lack the motivation to finish this series on the road, they are 5-2 along with an average difference of six points when they want to finish a playoff breakout in 2015.
The Warriors were constantly adapting and evolving throughout the series, and the Mavericks struggled to adapt. While one swing may seem surprising, given the pedigree and past performances in this series, Mavericks’ run seems to be over.
Support the Warriors to complete the cleanup while waiting for the Heat-Celtics winner with a significant break advantage.
Choice: Warriors Moneyline (-104)
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