Less than a decade ago, ties seemed to have improved as the two countries – separated by a strait less than 80 miles (128 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point – deepened economic, cultural and even political engagements. But today, relations are at their lowest point in decades, raising fears of military escalation, even when experts warn that an impending all-out war remains unlikely.
In recent months, China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only fueled speculation about Beijing’s intentions with Taiwan, raising questions about how the world could react if China launches an attack.
Although the White House quickly downplayed Biden’s comments, no other country is as deeply involved in the dispute as the United States, which has a complicated history with both sides and has long come a delicate way.
China’s authoritarian turn under leader Xi Jinping and the sharp deterioration of relations with Washington have drawn Taiwan closer to US orbit. This infuriated Beijing, prompting it to unleash more pressure on Taiwan and sending relations between the two sides of the Strait in a downward spiral.
Here’s what you need to know about the island, which is increasingly at the forefront of the US-China conflict.
First, a quick story
Taiwan, long inhabited by indigenous peoples, became part of the Chinese Empire in the 17th century. It was then ceded to Japan in 1895 after Imperial China lost the First Sino-Japanese War.
The island remained a Japanese colony for half a century until the end of World War II. Following Japan’s allied defeat, China’s ruling nationalist government, led by the Kuomintang (KMT), took control of Taiwan.
It was not long before the nationalists – who ruled the continent under the flag of the Republic of China (RC) after the fall of Imperial China – came under renewed attack by the rebellious Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The two countries entered a bloody civil war that led to the eventual defeat of nationalists who fled to Taiwan by moving the ROC government headquarters from Nanjing to Taipei. On the other side of the Strait, the CCP took power and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing.
Both have declared themselves the only legitimate government in all of China.
In Taipei, nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek dreamed of one day regaining the continent; In Beijing, CCP Chairman Mao Zedong sees Taiwan as the last part of a united “new China” – a “problem” that had to be solved sooner or later.
In recent years, Taiwan has downplayed its territorial claims to mainland China and today is a viable democracy with its own army, currency, constitution and elected government.
But it is not recognized as an independent state by most governments around the world and is becoming increasingly isolated diplomatically.
Over the years, a growing number of governments have shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving Taiwan with only 15 diplomatic allies by the end of 2021.
What is the role of the United States in all this?
During the Chinese Civil War, the United States supported the nationalists, while the Communists had the support of the Soviet Union.
The United States continued to support the KMT government after its withdrawal to Taiwan, providing development assistance to help build its economy, while avoiding the PRC as an ideological and military adversary.
But after a diplomatic conflict between Beijing and Moscow in the 1960s – known as the Sino-Soviet divide – relations between China and the United States began to thaw to balance the Soviet Union.
By 1979, the United States had joined a growing list of nations that had officially passed diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
In what is known as the One China policy, Washington recognizes the PRC as China’s only legitimate government; he also acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan was part of China, but never accepted the CCP’s claim to sovereignty over the island.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to maintain close informal ties with Taiwan under the terms of the decades-old Taiwan Relations Act, facilitating trade, cultural and other exchanges through the American Institute of Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US embassy in Taipei.
Washington is also supplying the island with defensive weapons, but remains deliberately unclear as to whether it will defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”
This is to keep the cover open by deterring China by keeping the US military response open. At the same time, it aims to deprive Taiwan of US guarantees that could lead it to declare official independence. The goal is to maintain the status quo and avoid a war in Asia – and that worked, allowing Washington to follow the rope of relations with both sides.
But with Biden, this “strategic ambiguity” became a little less ambiguous. Since taking office, Biden has said three times that the United States would be ready to intervene militarily if the Chinese attack – although the White House rushed to deflect his remarks each time.
But his latest warning against Beijing had an additional symbolic weight – it was made right on China’s doorstep during his first trip to Asia as president, which aims to unite allies and partners to counter China’s growing influence.
As expected, Beijing reacted angrily to his remarks, expressing its “strong discontent and strong opposition” and accusing the United States of “playing with fire.”
Why is the tension rising?
For decades since the founding of the PRC, hostilities have reigned between Beijing and Taipei, with trade, travel and communication largely disrupted. Military conflicts continue to escalate, with the PRC shelling several remote ROC-controlled islands in two separate cases.
But tensions began to ease in the late 1980s, allowing for limited private visits, indirect trade and strait investments. The ties reached their peak in 2015 during a historic meeting between the leaders of the KMT and the CCP in Singapore.
But relations deteriorated rapidly after 2016, when Tsai Ying-wen of the traditionally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a landslide presidential election in Taiwan – fueled by voters’ fears that Taiwan was getting too close to Beijing under the KMT government. .
And under Xi, China is becoming more assertive in foreign policy and more and more authoritarian at home. The relentless suppression of democracy and freedom in Hong Kong is further alienating many people in Taiwan who fear they could face the same fate if they are ruled by Beijing.
Tensions are rising especially as the Chinese military increases pressure on the island in response to what Beijing sees as “provocations” by administrations in Taiwan and the United States.
How likely is the conflict?
Following aggressive military demonstrations by Beijing in 2021, Taiwan’s defense minister warned that China would be able to stage a “full-scale” invasion of Taiwan by 2025 – sparking discussions of potential armed conflict.
Chinese military maneuvers and exercises are a reminder for Taiwan and the United States not to cross the red lines of Beijing, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asian program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She said those red lines included a campaign for Taiwan’s official independence or a decision to deploy large numbers of US troops on the island.
In an interview with CNN last year, President Tsai said the threat from Beijing was growing “every day.” But on the streets of Taipei, the mood seems mostly calm and confident. And analysts agree that despite the rhetoric and the slashing of military swords, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan soon. U.S. intelligence officials have also not yet seen anything suggesting that China is preparing a military offensive, according to those familiar with the estimates.
Biden reiterated a similar assessment on Monday.
“My expectation is that this will not happen,” he told reporters. “He won’t try.”
Striving for a peaceful solution to the opposition across the Taiwan Strait makes sense – experts have long said that any attempt by Beijing to take the island by force will be an extremely costly endeavor with an uncertain outcome.
In addition, the rapid and coordinated response by the United States and its allies to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have worried Beijing, experts say, suggesting its leaders are watching the West’s reaction to Ukraine, including Taiwan.
It remains to be seen what lessons Beijing will learn from the crisis in Ukraine – it may become more cautious in its calculations in light of Russia’s volatile invasion and strong Western response.
But on the other hand, Beijing may also conclude that “any attempt to seize the island by force will only become more difficult the longer they wait, as Taiwan may become more serious about its defense, and The United States and its allies may become more serious about preparations. with Taiwan for this battle, “wrote Bill Bishop, an expert on Chinese politics and author of the Sinocism bulletin.
CNN’s Stephen Collinson contributed to this story.
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