When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, it hoped to overtake the country in a blitz that lasted only days or weeks. Many Western analysts believe so.
However, as the conflict marked its third month on Tuesday, Moscow appears to be mired in what increasingly looks like a war of attrition, with no end in sight and little success on the battlefield.
There was no quick victory for the powerful forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin, no defeat to allow the Kremlin to control most of Ukraine and form a puppet government.
Instead, Russian troops sank on the outskirts of Kyiv and other major cities amid strong Ukrainian defenses. Convoys of Russian armor seemed to be stopped on long stretches of highway. The troops ran out of supplies and gasoline, becoming an easy target from the ground and air.
Just over a month after the invasion, Russia virtually acknowledged the failure of its blitz and withdrew its troops from areas near Kyiv, declaring a shift in focus to the eastern industrial region of Donbass, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.
Of course, Russia has taken over significant parts of the territory around the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed eight years ago. He also managed to cut off Ukraine completely from the Sea of Azov, finally securing full control of the key port of Mariupol after a siege that prevented some of its troops from fighting elsewhere while fighting unwavering Ukrainian forces hidden in massive steel factories.
But the offensive in the east also seems to have sunk as Western weapons flow into Ukraine to support its superior army.
Every day, Russian artillery and fighter jets mercilessly strike Ukrainian positions in the Donbass, trying to break through defenses built during the separatist conflict.
They made only growing profits, clearly reflecting both the insufficient number of Russian troops and the Ukrainian resistance. In a recent episode, the Russians lost hundreds of personnel and dozens of combat vehicles in the Luhansk region as they tried to cross a river to build a bridgehead.
“The Russians are still lagging behind where we believe they wanted to be when they began these revived efforts in the east of the country,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Friday, describing the fighting in Donbass as very dynamic, with small towns and villages. he changes his hands every day.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, Russian forces are methodically targeting Western arms supplies, ammunition and fuel depots, and critical infrastructure with cruise missiles and air strikes in hopes of weakening Kyiv’s military capacity and economic potential.
The Kremlin still seems to have a more ambitious goal of cutting Ukraine from the Black Sea coast to the Romanian border, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed.
But Moscow seems to know that this goal is not currently achievable with the limited forces at its disposal.
“I think they’re just realizing more and more that they don’t have to be able to do everything, certainly not all at once,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic consulting firm.
Moscow’s losses have forced it to rely increasingly on hastily assembled units in the Donbass, which could make only small profits, he said.
“This is a constant shift of gears to smaller goals that Russia can actually achieve,” Crump said. “And I think on the largest scale, they’ve actually reduced their strategy better to match their capabilities on the ground.”
Many in Ukraine and the West believed that Putin would pour resources into Donbass to achieve a decisive triumph by Victory Day on May 9, when Moscow celebrated its defeat by Nazi Germany in World War II. Russia has falsely called the war a campaign to “denationalize” Ukraine, a country with a democratically elected Jewish president who wants closer ties with the West.
Instead of a massive campaign in the east, however, the Kremlin has opted for a series of tactical mini-offensives aimed at gaining ground to try to encircle Ukrainian forces.
“Russia’s leadership is urging the military command to show at least some achievements, and it has nothing to do but continue to send more troops to the massacre,” said Nikolai Sunhurovsky, a military expert at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center.
Many in the West expected Putin to announce a broad mobilization to fill Russia’s ranks. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has warned that Putin could schedule a Victory Day announcement.
But that never happened, and Russia continued to rely on limited force, which was clearly insufficient against the Ukrainian defense.
A massive mobilization is likely to provoke widespread discontent in Russia, fuel anti-war sentiment and carry huge political risks. Authorities opted for more limited options, with lawmakers drafting a bill to remove the current 40-year age limit for those wishing to enlist in the army.
The lack of resources was highlighted last week by Russia’s abrupt withdrawal from areas near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which has been bombed since the start of the war. Some of these forces were apparently redeployed to Donbass, but that was not enough to tip the scales on the battlefield.
“They really had to dilute the troops they had around Kharkov, simply because they were trying to hold too large a line with too few troops,” said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic research at St. Petersburg University. Andrews in Scotland.
The fighting in Donbass is increasingly turning into artillery duels and “could go on for a long time without much movement,” he said.
“So at this point, it’s going to be more of a positional battle,” O’Brien added, “and anyone who can take the hit will succeed.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to receive a steady stream of Western weapons, including US howitzers and drones, tanks from Poland and other heavy equipment that are immediately sent into battle.
“Ukraine’s plan is simple and obvious – drain Russian forces in the coming months as much as possible, gain time to acquire Western weapons and learn how to use them, and then launch a counter-offensive in the southeast,” said Sunhurovsky of Kiev. based military expert.
He said Ukraine hopes to receive even more powerful Western weapons, such as US HIMARS missiles, anti-ship missiles and more powerful air defense weapons.
The eastern stalemate angered Russia’s hardliners, who warned that Moscow could not win without massive mobilization and focusing all its resources on a decisive attack.
Igor Strelkov, a former security official who led separatists in Donbass in 2014, condemned what he described as the Kremlin’s indecision, saying it could pave the way for defeat.
“For Russia, the strategic impasse is deepening,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities are increasingly encouraged by the slow pace of Russia’s offensive and growing support from the West.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed last week that returning the Russians to their positions before the invasion would be a victory, some of his aides announced even more ambitious goals.
Councilor Mikhail Podoliak said Ukraine was not interested in a ceasefire “until Russia is ready to completely liberate the occupied territories”, a bold statement that seems to reflect hopes for the restoration of Donbass and Crimea.
Russia, meanwhile, apparently aims to bleed Ukraine by methodically striking for fuel and infrastructure supplies, while achieving huge military successes in the east. The Kremlin can also hope that Western interest in the conflict will eventually fade amid economic challenges and other problems.
“Their last hope is that we will completely lose interest in the conflict in Ukraine by the summer,” Crump said. “They estimate that Western audiences will lose interest in the same way as Afghanistan last year. Russia believes that time is working in its favor.
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Danika Kirka in London, Lolita S. Baldor in Washington and Juras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, contributed.
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