The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecasting Center on Tuesday predicted 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes – category 3 or higher.
The 2020 and 2021 seasons exhausted the list of hurricane names and broke records. No one can say for sure if this year will be similar, but in early April, the Colorado State University published its numbers, which were exactly in line with NOAA forecasts.
The CSU forecast predicted 19 so-called storms, nine hurricanes and four major storms.
After years of using all hurricane names and resorting to the Greek alphabet, the World Meteorological Organization has decided to end the use of the Greek alphabet and make another list of names to use if all hurricane names are exhausted once again.
Of course, it is impossible to know how many of these storms will reach the US coast or where the biggest storms will develop.
However, during the announcement, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad acknowledged that the current cycle of hurricanes in the Atlantic is busy.
“If you go back two years, the hurricane season in 2020 broke all records and it is the most active season in history with 30 so-called storms,” Spinrad said.
“Hurricane season 2021, the third most active year in history for storm names, has brought us 21 so-called storm surges ranging from the Appalachian Mountains to New England, bringing in more than 78.5 billion dollars damage in the United States. “
What drives the seasons above average
There are several factors that contribute to the “busy” hurricane season. “We are in an active period,” Spinrad said. “There are certain ingredients that determine the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”
One is the existing conditions of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon creates lower than average ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean and leads to the effects of weather around the world.
La Niña provides favorable conditions for hurricanes – in contrast to El Niño.
El Niño hurricane seasons are known for higher-level Caribbean wind patterns that tear hurricanes apart as they try to form, making the seasons less active.
Another reason for the abnormal forecast is the location of what is called the “Gulf Stream”. The current is a “600-foot-deep river with hot Caribbean water that travels between Cancun, Mexico and western Cuba in the Persian Gulf,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
This circular current now flows farther north, forcing hot water in the deeper levels of the ocean to approach coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico. “The hot water is just too deep and the hurricane has an unlimited supply of hot water for intensification,” Myers said.
Forecasters compare the position of the current in the circuit with the place where it was placed in the record season of 2005 – when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita reached land.
“Yes, the circuit current really looks like 2005,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a leading forecaster for the hurricane season at the NOAA Climate Forecasting Center. “But it depends on whether the storm is actually moving above that current, and predicting the specific path of storms is not something we can do in a week,” Rosencrans added.
Record years ago
During the hurricane season in 2021, eight storms reached the shores of the Gulf of the United States, and in 2020, six reached the mainland along the Persian Gulf.
In 2020, Hurricanes Laura and Delta struck southwestern Louisiana, making the land about 15 miles apart. What to do if you’re on the road to Hurricane In 2021, Hurricane Ida tore southeastern Louisiana, causing more catastrophic damage in the northeast.
“Hurricane Ida covered nine states, demonstrating that anyone could be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Dean Chriswell. “It’s important that everyone understands their risk.”
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