This print photo, taken in 2004 and received on May 23, 2022 by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German Federal Government Agency and Research Institute for Disease Control and Prevention, shows an ultrathin slice with electron microscopy. monkeypox virus. [Photo/Agencies]
PARIS – Although it is still too early to talk about a monkeypox epidemic, despite the increase in recent reports, the phenomenon should act as a warning, according to Antoine Flao, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva.
Q: Cases are on the rise in North America and Europe: can it be called an epidemic?
A: We see the emergence of an unusual phenomenon, but it is still difficult to know whether it will break out in an epidemic or its spread will be more limited. In recent days, the number of cases has doubled every three or four days, which may signal an exponential growth of the epidemic wave.
However, it may also be questioned whether the recent media coverage of the phenomenon has encouraged patients to consult their doctor and their doctor to discuss the diagnosis more and report cases. Therefore, it is still a little early to talk about an epidemic, but the beginning of an epidemic would really be similar to what we are seeing at the moment.
Q: Is the spread of the disease surprising and disturbing?
A: The emergence of this phenomenon, which is new outside of equatorial Africa, should warn us and make us very cautious. It would be much more effective from a health point of view and much less socially and economically impactful to isolate the few cases found today in three weeks and to require quarantine for highly suspicious contacts.
In fact, at the moment we can try to dismantle all transmission chains because we have only a few cases, instead of waiting to be overwhelmed by a possible influx of cases for which we have little knowledge, little treatment or available vaccines.
It must always be remembered that the epidemic progression of pollution follows an exponential law, which can be very rapid. At the moment, what we know about the monkeypox virus does not make us afraid of mass contamination of the general population. Unless the virus has evolved significantly, both in terms of its transmissibility and modes of transmission, it is known that this virus is not very transmissible.
We know, after 50 years of experience in Africa, that this virus requires strong interpersonal promiscuity with someone infected in order for infection to occur.
Question: Is there a risk, as with Covid, that it will become a global pandemic?
A: We cannot rule out any scenario at this stage. And the pandemic scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
However, there are other less pessimistic scenarios that are at least as plausible as the scenarios. To date, no chain infections have been reported in more than six people. The reproduction rate in Africa has always been below 1, i.e. no potential for a pandemic.
There may be conditions for human-to-human transmission, thanks to the increased adaptation of the virus, but also to the mobility and networks of human communities living in the immediate vicinity.
The HIV / AIDS pandemic has also started by infecting certain segments of society, in particular male homosexual communities and people exchanging needles.
Then we saw the pandemic spread to other populations, blood transfusion patients, prostitutes, and then heterosexual couples and newborn babies from infected mothers.
However, there is currently no evidence that the monkeypox virus is sexually transmitted. It seems to be more susceptible to close and prolonged contact with an infected person who has blisters on their skin.
In this case, there is no reason to limit it to the male homosexual community. Other groups in the population could then be affected, in particular children and heterosexual couples.
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