All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know about Game 7
The sweet host of Miami: There were 145 games 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home teams won 76.5% of them. The Heat are 7-2 at home in the post-season, losing games 2 and 5 after starting the post-season 7-0 at home. Miami is 6-4 all the time in Game 7s. Under coach Eric Spoelstra, the score was 4-2, including a perfect 4-0 at home. In the previous six Game 7s that Spoelstra has coached, the Heat have a margin of plus 6.0 points per game.
Jimmy Butler: Jimmy Butler led the offensive attack for Miami in a revival performance on Friday, in which he scored more points in Game 6 alone than in Games 3, 4 and 5 combined (47 vs. 27). Butler finished with 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals, one of his best efforts as he faced elimination in Heat and NBA history. Butler’s 47 points are the most from a Heath player when faced with elimination, and coincidentally, the three best performances in Heath’s history are now all against the Celtics.
I was there, do this: When it comes to Game 7s, the Celtics are experienced. They have played and won 7 more games than any other franchise. The Celtics are 25-9 all the time in Game 7, and their 0.735 win rate in Game 7 is the best among franchises with at least two games played. They are 4-4 in a 7s game played on the road.
– ESPN statistics and information
Breaking Game 7
Boston Celtics at Miami Heath 20:30 ET, FTX Arena, Miami
Line: Celtics (-2.5) Currency line: Celtics (-140), Hate (+120) Total: 195.5 points BPI profit%: Hate (51.3%)
In question: Marcus Smart (ankle), Tyler Hero (groin), Robert Williams III (knee), Max Strus (knee tendon), Gabe Vincent (knee tendon)
Excluded: None. Note: BPI numbers are important for players who are excluded, but assume that suspicious players will play.
Remarkable: The total of 195.5 is the lowest in every game this season (the first game under 200) and the lowest in any play-off game in 2018.
Remarkable: The Heat are only the third team to be an outsider at home in Game 7 in the last 30 seasons (excluding the 2020 bubble). The previous two finished 1-1 and ATS. – ESPN statistics and information
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Best bet: Celtics -2.5, over 195.5. The Heat surprised the world with an amazing performance in Match 6 to win back home and momentum, heading to Match 7 on Sunday night. I do not expect Jimmy Butler to have another performance of 47 points, which was necessary for the victory of the Heat with eight points. Let it marinate in this for a minute. I believe the Celtics underestimated an injured Heat team that was on its way. Game 6 was a wake-up call and Boston usually follows a loss with a win. Al Horford had a break (from 1 to 6 from deep), Smart was 1-to-9 from deep, Jason Tatum had seven turns, Jaylan Brown had four turns – and I don’t expect to see that again. I also play the over here, where this sum is VERY low, considering that the over has hit four of the six games. I respect the defense, but there is too much firepower on this court. “Anita Marx.”
Best bet: Brown over 24.5 points. The Celtics need Brown to step up. In Game 6, he scored 20 points, but two came in the second half. I don’t expect it to be like this on Sunday night. Brown insisted after Game 6 that the Celtics would come together in Game 7. He has an average of 23 PPGs in the playoffs in 2022. In Game 7, Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the Celtics in the result. “Eric Moody.”
Best bet: Over 195.5. I started the series because despite how great both defenses are, these two teams usually score well against each other. Entering Game 4, they had scored at least 204 combined points in five consecutive games (returning to the regular season), with an average score of 216.8 PPG. Then, in games 4 and 5, the Heat had several injuries, which led them to two historically unsuccessful goal-scoring matches and therefore two lower points. But as Heat looked solid in match 6, the result returned to normal and the teams combined for the more typical 214 points. While matches 7 are often defensive cases, if teams are strong, they must exceed 195.5. “Andre Snelings.”
Best bet: Tatum over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. This game is late in the series, which usually means that Tatum is about to put a big number on the board. In the last four Bucks-Celtics games, Tatum averaged 33.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 5.3 APG, exceeding 41.5 PAR three times. In the last three games in this series, Tatum has averaged 27.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 6.0 APG and exceeds 41.5 PAR all three times. If he’s healthy, I’m looking for Tatum to grow up in Game 7. – Andre Snelings
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Best bet: Butler over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Butler’s bets are some of the best bets in the playoffs so far. The only exception was when his knee prevailed over him in games 3-5. But he pulled away in a big way in Game 6 and I can’t imagine seeing anything less than Super-Butler in this crucial Game 7 as he tries to bring Heat back to the finals. “Andre Snelings.”
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