Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford, left, and Alberta Prime Minister Jason Kenny clench their fists at the Premier’s Stampede breakfast during the Calgary Stampede on July 8, 2019.TODD KOROL / Reuters
Critics of conservative prime ministers often put them in the same category. But if there has ever been a moment to show how different they can be, it could be this spring – as the clearly contrasting fates of Doug Ford and Jason Kenny unfold.
Mr Ford, a municipal politician opposed to the establishment, which has become a more conservative, is likely to be re-elected prime minister. The detail-oriented and policy-minded Mr Kenny – who wears his true blue conservatism up his sleeve – will resign in the coming months following a startling result in a leadership review last week.
Even Mr Kenny, who won the vast majority in the provincial elections in Alberta in 2019, cannot help but make the comparisons himself. During his weekly radio broadcast, he said he had shown “the greatest tolerance for internal dissent” because he believed in the parliamentary system. But he said it could have been a mistake. Mr Ford, in contrast, expelled several MPs from the group who opposed government policy or did not want to be vaccinated, Mr Kenny said.
“Perhaps one of my mistakes is that I did not maintain stronger discipline than other leaders.
But paradoxically, what he describes as a soft touch when it comes to party discipline, Mr. Kenny has a problem with people. As much as we like to attribute grand mastery and strategy to political development, our personality-led world gives Mr. Ford an advantage.
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The leader of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario is provoking strong reactions, both positive and negative, but he has his fans. There is a significant contingent of non-conservatives in the province who will vote for Mr Ford on June 2 simply because they see him as sincere or dislike him less than other party leaders.
This also applies to members and advisers close to Mr Ford. At a press conference in Ontario earlier this month, I was struck by Amin Masudi – who served as Mr Ford’s secretary general and chairman of the Progressive Conservatives’ campaign – watching from the sidelines as Mr Ford spoke this morning. press conference. Mr. Masudi nodded as Mr. Ford hit key points of conversation.
I can’t think of anyone in Mr Kenny’s inner circle like Mr Masudi who has been close to Mr Ford (and before that to his brother Rob) for ten years. There is no one in the inner circle of the Prime Minister of Alberta who understands his political brand and to whom he is looking to read the room.
This is not a fatal shortcoming on the part of Mr Kenny. The leader should not be seen as warm and kind. The ability of the Prime Minister of Alberta to prepare, talk about complex policies or answer difficult questions has always been impressive and very different from Mr. Ford, who avoids one-on-one interviews with reporters and relies heavily on advance prepared points for conversation. For example, Mr Kenny’s presentation earlier this month in justifying Alberta’s oil exports and its methane regulations in the U.S. Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee would be difficult for many leaders to compare.
This militant, independent political figure was well and good when the UCP was on the rise. But as soon as questions arose about Mr Kenny’s ability to win the next election, this lack of allies became a commitment to the party (just as it was for then-Prime Minister Alison Redford in 2014). There were few public demonstrations of support or cabinet support as the prime minister went through his review of campaign-style leadership this year. The lack of cohesion around the leader was highlighted again this week in a statement by Cabinet Minister Doug Schweizer as he announced he would not run in the UCP leadership race. Mr Schweizer mentioned former Prime Minister Jim Prentiss, who died in a plane crash in 2016. He did not mention Jason Kenny.
Like Mr. Ford, Mr. Kenny and an inexperienced cabinet made a series of unpopular decisions even before the pandemic struck. But Mr Kenny did not relax and barely slowed down during the pandemic, pushing forward with a grueling policy agenda to meet the self-imposed criterion of “fulfilled promises” that no regular voter followed.
Both prime ministers, Ford and Kenny, opposed vaccine passport systems last July, a position they will eventually be forced to change. But after a disastrous spring in which Mr Ford delayed action on the growing third wave of cases and was then forced to withdraw his policy of closing playgrounds and allowing indiscriminate police searches, he had become more cautious about declarations. about how the pandemic will develop.
Mr Kenny, on the other hand, had his worst reign in the summer and autumn of 2021, as he held a major Stampede celebration and punished those who expressed concern about pandemic options. He then disappeared from public view – and also left the province’s COVID plan without a leader – for weeks as intensive care units filled up. Mr Kenny’s decision to introduce an evidence-based vaccination system in September, which he said had become inevitable, hurt a large number of UCP supporters.
But these differences are only part of the story, because comparing governance in Ontario and Alberta is not comparing apples to apples. Mr Ford may not have fully understood the PC party he led in 2018 – which was largely shaped by his predecessor Patrick Brown – but compared to the nascent UCP, it was much more cohesive. Mr Kenny is also facing a much stronger political opponent in the popular NDP leader Albert Rachel Notley, who is now prime minister, than Mr Ford is facing a Liberal or NDP in his province.
It is also difficult to exaggerate how angry and disappointed many people in Alberta were at the beginning of the pandemic. The economic situation in Ontario has been relatively slow so far. But many Alberts were already struggling with long-term unemployment and loss of identity as the future of the oil and gas industry became increasingly uncertain.
Yes, now the picture is different – the economy and employment are recovering. But some uncertainty about what the future will hold remains, and sentiment does not change.
Mr. Ford had to manage the political outrage in his province. But the discontent with politicians in Alberta is very different, as Mr Kenny is well aware.
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