Victory in Donbass – if he manages to secure it – is not the final for Vladimir Putin. He intends to subjugate the whole of Ukraine to his will and to humiliate NATO and the United States. Those like Henry Kissinger and Emmanuel Macron, who see peace as a matter of handing over part of Moscow’s territory, fail to understand the fundamental point: Putin’s strategic perspective goes far beyond eastern Ukraine and he has a lot to do. more time and leverage than we thought.
Many commentators have warned the West not to be complacent after Russia’s failed attempt to take Ukraine in one fell swoop in February. Putin’s army may have shown tactical incompetence and low morale, but it was always clear that the regrouped force could still achieve some of its goals. This is exactly what is happening now, when the wave is starting to turn against the Ukrainians in the Donbass region of Luhansk.
Moscow has achieved steady territorial successes there and inflicted heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. President Zelenski admitted last week that up to 100 of his soldiers are killed every day in the eastern region. This level of exhaustion will seriously worsen Ukraine’s military morale and fighting force. And given what we know about Russian military tactics, they are unlikely to receive so many casualties.
In the face of fierce artillery bombardment, followed by tank and infantry attacks, Ukrainian troops withdrew. Sometimes this involves a tactical retreat to more stable defensive positions, but mostly such moves are made as necessary. The city of Severodonetsk is about to be stormed. If it is captured along with another key city, Lisichansk, then much of Luhansk will be under the auspices of the Kremlin. This is a significant defeat for Ukraine – and for the West.
President Zelensky says Russian weapons are 20 to one in the region. Few of NATO’s promised artillery and ammunition have arrived to fix the balance, and most of what they have is beyond reach. The Russian military has reportedly improved its tactics to counter hand-held armored weapons, which have caused so many tank losses earlier in the conflict, and particularly effective NLAW missiles delivered from the UK are now sadly in short supply.
Even the “gradual” and “slow” progress of the Russians, as a Pentagon spokesman recently described it, has turned into significant gains over time. This reality is made even more sinister by the fact that Ukrainian forces as a whole are struggling to organize large-scale counter-offensives, despite NATO’s weapons and intelligence. Their strength defended the terrain, while great achievements were usually achieved only in the face of Russia’s withdrawal. Earlier hopes that the Ukrainian army would drive the Russians back to their borders were optimistic about the harsh reality.
These truths have been taken into account by the ministers in Kyiv, from whom we hear increasingly desperate warnings about Russian control.
Because while Luhansk’s territory is relatively small, capturing it would only be the beginning of Putin’s struggle. In the south, Moscow achieved great success in the beginning and with the fall of Mariupol secured its land bridge from Crimea to Russian territory. The next step could be a renewed offensive on Odessa to seize the entire coast of Ukraine, connect with Transnistria and threaten Moldova, a candidate for EU membership.
The timing of such a move depends on the state of Russian forces at the end of the Donbass campaign. Some Kremlin advisers may encourage Putin to declare victory and negotiate a ceasefire – which, as we have learned since 2014, would only be a deterrent – but the far greater temptation will be to push west with renewed vigor.
Ultimately, the Russian president sees that his opponents on the battlefield are tired and that the West is facing retribution with inflation, energy shock and food shortages. He will no doubt want to use this advantage to the detriment of the Ukrainian people.
Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander and chairman of the Cobra Intelligence Group.
Add Comment