Pierre Poliever “may be vulnerable”, says sociologist, as support softens for leader

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Abacus Data: Negative supporters rose seven points; supporters with a positive opinion are down by eight points

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May 30, 2022 • 1 hour ago • 3 minutes reading • 206 comments Conservative candidate for the Conservative leadership Pierre Poyeur speaks during the French Conservative Leadership Debate of Canada in Laval, Quebec, May 25, 2022 Photo: Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press / File

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Three weeks ago, Charles Vincent drove to a local hotel in Notre Dame du Bon Concei, Quebec, to meet Pierre Poalievre. Vincent eventually bought a membership and even posed for a photo with the Ottawa MP he first heard about during a convoy of trucks last January.

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But after the French debate this week, Vincent is not so sure he will vote for Poilievre.

A spokesman for the agricultural sector told the National Post that he had taken a closer look at former Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest, who he said sounded like a true leader. Vincent has not yet made a final decision, but it seems less and less likely to vote for Poilievre.

“It’s good for me if you like bitcoins or if you want to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada. But all this is secondary. There is a war in Ukraine at the moment, “Vincent said.

Rima El-Helu, a former Conservative candidate in Laval, Quebec, said she backed Poilievre at the start of the race – when the MP was the only candidate announced – thinking there would be no real race for leadership, but rather a coronation. .

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“When I found out there was going to be a race, I thought I might have reacted too quickly,” she said.

1. Charest and Brown’s “Small Coalition” argue with Poalievre during French debate

2. “If we lose the next one, we are ready”: the center-right group warns the Conservative Party

The stories of Vincent and El-Helu are not unique. In fact, the latest figures from Abacus Data show that there has been a recent but noticeable change in Conservative voters’ view of Poilievre, the early and clear favorite.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said his company had conducted a number of studies since March and that this was the first time Poilievre’s numbers had gone “negative”.

Supporters who have a negative opinion of Poilievre have increased by seven points, while supporters who have a positive opinion of the candidate have decreased by eight points in the last three weeks. Poliever still remains the undisputed favorite among conservative voters, far ahead of his five opponents.

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Koleto said the change could reflect Poliever’s doubling of his conflicting promises to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada and promote the cryptocurrency just as the Canadian dollar is collapsing. But is this a difficult period in the Poliever campaign or the beginning of a trend?

“We do not know, we will have to see. But this is the first sign that he may be vulnerable, that his positive image is not impenetrable. And this may suggest that some supporters are reconsidering or considering the pros and cons of being a party leader, “said the sociologist.

But while Poliever may have some flaws in his armor, there is no real move toward other candidates such as Charest or Brampton, Ontario, and Mayor Patrick Brown among conservative supporters.

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“Mr. Charest is still the least popular candidate to run among conservatives across the country. And that remains his biggest obstacle. One in four conservative supporters doesn’t like him. That’s still 11 points behind. “Higher than Mr. Poilievre,” Koleto said.

“And Mr. Brown is flying under the radar. Conservatives still don’t know much about him. So if he registers a lot of members, he does it in a way that is not part of the public conversation about it. And that is reflected in the numbers, “he added.

Poilievre shows no signs of retreating from some of his more controversial positions, even if they are supposed to hurt him in the polls, and did not hesitate to respond to those who criticized him, saying they were non-contact “elites” ”

Candidates have until June 3 to enroll new members and the voting process will take place in the summer. The new leader will be announced on September 10.

It remains to be seen whether Poalievr’s team will be able to secure a victory in the first ballot, as they had not secretly hoped. If current trends continue in research, Koleto warns that the road to victory “may be more complicated and unstable than it could have been a few weeks ago.”

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