David, meet Goliath.
While Colorado Avalanche still has a long way to go beyond what the Edmonton Oilers have had in recent years, the club in the south is coming up as a big favorite. Goliath.
The Oilers, meanwhile, have probably already accomplished more this postseason, sending the LA Kings at seven as they overtake the Calgary Flames at 5. After all, they are David.
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Edmonton presented himself as quite a heavy outsider in this series at +215 to win categorically. Is it justified? Perhaps.
Avs are a strong team. They have a loaded top 6, as powerful as the Oilers. Their backend is generally stronger than Edmonton’s. Although the loss of Samuel Girard is a significant loss, the weak are still in Avs’ favor.
In the network, however, things are starting to balance. Darcy Kumper was one of the best goalkeepers in the league this year with a record of 37-12-4, .921 save and 2.54 GAA. But old Schmidt wasn’t scared either. 16-9-2, .915 and 2.81.
After the playoffs, however, there is a change in strength, if you will. Quemper’s numbers fell sharply, while Smith’s only improved.
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TOI St. % GAA GSAA GSAA / 60 Mike Smith Reg. Season 1579: 58 0.915 2.81 7.27 0.28 Smith Playoffs 666: 06 0.927 2.70 5.48 0.49 Cumper Reg. season 3258: 07 0.921 2.54 25.19 0.46 Cumper Playoffs 516: 04 0.904 2.44 -2.18 -0.25
The biggest scope we see here is in the saved goals of the two goalkeepers above the average for an hour. Smith’s nearly doubled, up 75%, while Kuemper fell 154%.
But how can the Oilers benefit from Quemper? Network traffic. This is a recipe that works for them so far in the playoffs. In all situations, the Oilers scored 30 of their 52 goals from high-risk areas, according to Natural Stat Trick. Edmonton’s HDGF / 60 rose from 1.92 in the regular season to 2.48 in the playoffs.
The saying is simple: get to the net and you will score goals.
This is exactly how the Oilers can exploit Darcy Kumper. Among eight goalkeepers who have played more than seven playoff games, the high percentage of rescue in danger of Kumper .811 is the worst. Nashville and St. Louis, the first two enemies in this postseason for Colorado, generated the least and second least dangerous chances to score in these playoffs. My reading? Avalanche don’t give up a lot of looks inside during these playoffs, but when that happens, Kuemper struggles to stop them.
This shows a significant amount of space that Oilers can use. They will need to be creative, but attracting traffic to the network and a lot of staff this way will be crucial.
- It seems that the Oilers have decided to keep the lines together, as they were in the fifth game against Calgary. This means that Hyman is on the top line instead of Kane, and Yamamoto is on the second line, while Pulyuyarvi is on the third line with Vogel and McLeod.
- There are several ways when trying to play against Colorado here. You could go big against big with Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman against Landeskog-MacKinnon-Lehkonen and Kane-RNH-Yamamoto against Nichushkin-Kadri-Rantanen.
- I think getting big against big in this series, like against Calgary, is the game. McDavid v. McKinnon was not in Edmonton’s favor. Attempts to hit and expected goals at 5 × 5 changed quite strongly in favor of Colorado, when McDavid and McKinnon were on the ice together, but the balance was slightly adjusted for the result and place. With that in mind, I think here you need to compare speed versus speed and high-end skills versus high-end skills. This will leave the Nugent-Hopkins line against the Kadri line.
- It seems simple, but I would also recommend L3 versus L3 as much as possible. Burakowski-Komfer-Obe-Kubel did well, controlling the share of attempts to strike at 5 × 5, but missed the expected goals. Vogele and McLeod have some chemistry, while Puluarvi will also be a key shaker there.
- Regarding the fourth line, Edmonton needs to shake things up here. Archibald-Ryan-Cassian were defeated at 5 × 5, and the Oilers were beaten 5-2 by Archibald on ice and also 5-2 by Ryan on ice. Colorado is a smart, smart team and I would not be surprised to see them take this line seriously and separate them. Here on Twitter, I described some of the main problems with Archibald / Cassian. With that in mind, I think Archibald is the man who will leave the lineup here. By themselves,
- In backend, the Toewes-Makar are as solid as they are as a couple. They control and increase the pace of the game extremely well, but are surpassed by 2-5 in terms of high-risk goals. As mentioned earlier, this is a good place to use.
- Jack Johnson-Manson had difficulty in these playoffs. They barely succeed in terms of the share of attempts to strike, but they are crushed in the expected goals. This is a pair that Edmonton can win.
- Finally, Bayram-Eric Johnson was solid. Dominant share of shot attempts, goals scored and expected share of goals. They will lead to some problems.
In my eyes, this is going to be a terrible series. Colorado is playing such a strong game from front to back, but it feels like they may be getting too much love here. I understand – they are a great team and they are deep, but it is not that Edmonton was terrible in the playoffs. Despite some struggles against the Kings, they managed to do so when the game was counted and ended six away and seven at home. Against the Calgary Oilers, they absolutely won the favorite for the cup in five games. After a tough game with one loss, Edmonton won four in a row, including two in Calgary.
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And now? David meets Goliath.
I really like the Oilers odds here and I think this is a series that lasts a long time. Six, probably seven games will be needed to complete this one. The big cannons of the Oilers in Connor McDavid, Leon Drysight and Evander Kane play the best hockey in their collective years, while other key contributions to the up and down of the squad are also increasing. This trio will have to support production, while the second line will also have to make positive contributions. Edmonton’s third line should keep their heads above water, which I totally expect them to do, and for God’s sake, the fourth line should play as little as possible.
In defense, the Oilers will have to play a tight game and take away Colorado’s speed. They like to play fast-paced, and I think that’s in Edmonton’s favor. Above all, there will have to be a deep commitment to return the puck from all players.
Goalkeeping, as mentioned above, will also play a key role. Mike Smith needs to turn off the lights, and the Oilers need to take advantage of Quemper’s precarious play, reaching his net early and often. If they do…
Oilers at six.
Zack Laing is a news director and senior columnist for the Nation Network. It can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaingor contact by email at [email protected]
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