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Ostpolitik is now Lostpolitik.
For years, Germany has been the undisputed leader of the bloc, the voice and muscle of the Central and Eastern European nations of the EU, seeking Berlin for protection, guidance and sometimes explicit instructions. Often, when Brussels had to turn its weapons, it was Germany that lured Poland, Hungary or others to join the program.
But a series of recent events have undermined Berlin’s authority and influence in Central and Eastern Europe and, most importantly, among the leaders around the European Council summit. These include the retirement of longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel late last year, the formation of a more sophisticated tripartite ruling coalition in Berlin, and especially a number of political mistakes and inconsistent messages related to Russia’s policies and the war in Ukraine.
The result has been a significant weakening of Berlin’s influence and a greater willingness on the part of other countries to go their own way and in some cases openly challenge the Franco-German union, which has long been at the heart of EU power and decision-making. a number of EU representatives and diplomats.
“We don’t need German protection; history has proven to be on the wrong side of history, “said an Eastern European diplomat, referring to Berlin’s long-standing policy of stepping softly on Moscow. “Poland has shown good leadership in relation to Russia, in terms of reception [Ukranian] refugees to phase out gas. The Baltics have smart leadership. Bulgaria has a new, more reliable government. “Romania is stable,” the diplomat said.
The break-up of German rule was high this week as EU heads of state and government struggled to reach an agreement on an embargo on Russian oil and overcome stubborn resistance from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
In the past, when Orban has hampered EU proposals, Merkel has often been called upon to stand up. Whether Merkel’s agreements with Orban and others – both inside and outside the bloc – serve the EU’s long-term interests is highly questionable today. But there was no doubt about Merkel’s influence – and that of Berlin – within the EU.
This time, Germany has been accused of trying to take advantage of a proposed exemption from the oil embargo on pipelines. Berlin has repeatedly denied any involvement in proposing the exemption and ultimately vowed to suspend all purchases of Russian oil by the end of this year – a clear demonstration that it will not benefit from any of the ongoing pipeline deliveries.
But the fact that other EU member states, including some in the East, were so suspicious in general underscores the damaged trust in Berlin.
Meanwhile, an earlier visit to Budapest by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defense minister and student of Merkel, did not lead to a breakthrough in opposing the oil ban. And Hungary’s ongoing dispute over the rule of law with the Commission has made it more difficult to reach a compromise.
Instead, it was left to the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the former Prime Minister of Belgium, and the French Presidency of the Council of the EU to make a compromise, which Hungary eventually accepted, clearing the way for a more than oil ban. but a broader six-pack of sanctions. Merkel’s successor, Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, did not play a key role.
“Scholz is a real problem,” said an EU diplomat. “He is simply the mercantile German, instead of the one who compromises, as Merkel was. No one is intervening for Merkel. “
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz talks to the press when he arrives for the first day of the special summit of the EUCO | John Tees / AFP via Getty Images
The diplomat said Scholz could at best be described as an “Ecofin man” – a member of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council composed of national finance ministers, a position Scholz previously held. “But, to be honest, he has the level of a leader of a medium-sized European country,” the diplomat added.
A German official opposed such allegations, saying that “the fact that there is criticism from so many countries only shows that Germany is playing a leading role” in mediating compromises at EU level at this difficult time.
Scholz himself said on Tuesday that the two-day summit “emphasized Europe’s great unity and solidarity with Ukraine” – an achievement he sought to recall Germany’s financial assistance to the country, the reception of refugees and additional military aid to Kyiv, which the chancellor wants to give through a tank exchange deal with Greece.
On Wednesday, the chancellor cited his government’s efforts to play a greater role as a European security provider thanks to a huge 100 billion-euro military modernization fund that he said won much respect from Germany in European capitals from Paris to Warsaw. “They are very impressed with this step. Finally, they say, Germany is taking responsibility for the security it has in the 21st century,” Scholz told the German parliament.
Struggling to rise
But Scholz, a former mayor of Hamburg, is showing some signs that he is struggling to step up to the chancellor and a leading European political figure.
On Monday, Scholz was caught on camera in a scene that didn’t make him look much like a statesman as he rolled his eyes as reporters shouted questions as he arrived at the summit.
On the domestic front, Scholz has been criticized in recent days for making strange comments about climate activists driving him, forcing a government spokesman to dismiss accusations that he compared them to Nazis.
Although no head of state or government has acted as Merkel’s mediator, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, is known for declaring that the bank will do “what is needed” during the crisis. the eurozone is the leader who now manages the most important.
But Italy has carried the political baggage of decades of unstable politics and financial mismanagement, limiting the scope of Italian influence, no matter who the prime minister is.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron, who was recently re-elected for a second term, is seen as incapable of putting aside his ego and greatness to become a quiet man who influences consensus-based policies and decisions.
The decline in German influence was already under way in the weakening years of Merkel’s 16-year term, but first became clear last June when she and Macron proposed holding an EU summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. to be brutally rejected by leaders from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Macron and Merkel seemed intent on keeping up with US President Joe Biden, who held his own summit with Putin in Geneva earlier that month. The meeting yielded few concrete results, but offered a rare hint of potentially improved relations with Moscow.
Eastern European countries have warned that Putin has not yet taken any concrete steps in response to Biden’s initiatives, and warned that the EU’s overly soft approach to the authoritarian Russian leader could undermine Biden’s efforts to strike a new geopolitical balance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on February 7, 2022, before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine | Thibaut Camus / POOL / AFP via Getty Images
Confidence in Germany and France has already been shattered by long-failed efforts to implement the Minsk Peace Accords, a series of ceasefire agreements aimed at ending a Russian-backed separatist war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region.
Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine only further confirmed to Eastern European countries that Germany had made a serious historical mistake by putting its economic interests ahead of capturing and isolating a military arsonist dictator. The invasion followed months of warnings from Washington that war was imminent, warnings to which Berlin and Paris responded with open skepticism.
Some points for Paris
Macron has won some praise from Central and Eastern European officials for paying more attention to their region and their concerns than his recent predecessors.
Some noted that Macron has traveled extensively in the region and that Paris has openly supported Lithuania in its diplomatic dispute with China.
And the fact that the French presidency of the Council of the EU has repeatedly called for swift adoption of sanctions against Moscow is seen as an additional sign of France’s commitment to the East. A second Eastern European diplomat said that the French EU ambassador Philippe Leglis-Costa had diplomats in Brussels who “work day and night – but I certainly can’t complain about that and we really appreciate it”.
But few see the French leader as a genuine creditor in European politics – in part because the French system prefers the executive to parliamentary consensus-building and compromise. This means that French presidents are often not accustomed to the bargains that come with coalition policies in other countries.
And some French ideas are seen as contradictory or even crazy by Central and Eastern Europeans, such as Macron’s recent proposal for a European political community, an idea some see as a way to keep other nations in the region, such as Ukraine and the Western Balkans, EU.
Some Eastern European diplomats and officials have said they still hope Berlin will return – perhaps restoring confidence in international relations with the help of Foreign Minister Analena Burbock, who impressed them as more charismatic and …
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