The United States is now in Covid’s fourth biggest jump, according to official case counts – but experts say the actual current rate is much higher.
America has an average of about 94,000 new cases every day, and hospitalizations have increased since April, although they remain much lower than previous peaks.
But Covid’s cases could be reduced by a factor of 30, according to an early study of the jump in New York. “The official number of cases seems to underestimate the true severity of the infection by about 30 times, which is a big surprise,” said Dennis Nash, author of the study and a prominent professor of epidemiology at New York City University. York School of Public Health.
About one in five – 22% – of New Yorker adults probably had Covid between April 23 and May 8, according to a prepress study that was not reviewed or published. This would mean that 1.5 million adults in the city had Covid for a single two-week period – much higher than official figures at the time.
While the study focuses on New York, these findings may be true in the rest of the country, Nash said. In fact, New Yorkers probably have better access to testing than most of the country, which means that underreporting can be even worse elsewhere.
“It is very worrying. For me, this means that our ability to really understand and anticipate the virus has been undermined, “Nash said.
More than half of the patients surveyed with Covid also said they were unaware of Paxlovid, an antiviral drug that can be very effective in preventing hospitalization and death among high-risk people. And those who have had access to Paxlovid are usually younger, with better access to resources, signaling that Paxlovid may still not reach those who need it most.
“We need to be able to know which of the most vulnerable is not getting access to Paxlovid after having a Covid infection, and to make sure they are reached and targeted quickly,” Nash said.
Pfizer’s Covid Paxlovid pill was packaged last year. Photo: Pfizer / Reuters
Gaps in the number of cases may also explain why many people do not realize that the United States is in the midst of a major leap, experts said. Even those who pay attention to the cases probably do not realize how widespread Covid is at the moment.
“We have always known that there is an underestimation. “We didn’t always know how low they were,” he said. But in recent months, the gap seems to be widening.
The research team did a similar study after Omicron’s first jump and estimated that about 1.8 million adults probably had Covid between January 1 and mid-March.
That estimate was about three to four times the official number at the time, Nash said, well below the 30-fold difference the researchers see now.
We were asked by our leaders to make the best decisions for us as individuals. So what information does the average person refer to? Denis Nash, CUNY School of Public Health
The huge discrepancy between estimates and the official number of cases is probably due to an increase in home tests, which are not usually included in official figures, and pandemic fatigue or lack of information, leading some people not to test at all, even if they have symptoms or exposure. of the virus.
There is also a “huge hurdle” for many people to get tested for Covid, said Lara Jirmanus, a family doctor and clinical instructor at Harvard Medical School. Americans have been told the virus is mild and will not affect their lives, she said, but if the test is positive, they should stay home from work and school.
“It’s almost as if we’ve created a Covid national ‘don’t ask, don’t say’ policy – and this is the perfect way to promise that Covid will spread quickly,” she said. who never have any symptoms.
Without good data on the true extent of Covid, it is more difficult to protect ourselves from it, experts said.
“We’re not really doing well with what’s happening with Covid, and therefore people can’t decide what to do when they grow up,” Nash said.
“We have been asked by our elected leaders and governments to make the best decisions for us as individuals,” he continued. “So what information does the average person use when trying to make the best decisions for themselves about Covid safeguards?”
Increased surveillance of viruses such as Covid – by examining wastewater or conducting research, as Nash and his colleagues did – would set off an alarm for future jumps and help experts understand how vulnerable people may be to the virus.
Local and national public health officials need to “give a better picture of what the real burden of Covid can be, so that people can make these informed decisions,” Nash said.
People need to be given “clear ramps and off ramps” as a precaution, as Covid is growing and ebb, Jimanus said. Instead, “we’re basically just putting ourselves at risk for this virus and we have no idea what the future holds for us – the next option could make people sick or kill people faster.”
Due to the protection offered by vaccines and recovery from previous cases, the rate of hospitalization and mortality from this jump is lower than previous waves so far.
But “we are not in a place where we can confidently say that each of these new jumps in the option will not lead to an influx of deaths,” Nash said.
Hospitalization and death are also not the only negative cases. “The long-term threat from Covid will be something that has been with us for some time, even as hospitalizations and deaths become less of a problem,” Nash said.
Long-lasting Covid can occur in approximately 10 to 30 percent of cases, and any infection – and re-infection – appears to be a “roll of the dice” to develop long-term health problems, he said.
“In my opinion, this is very poorly understood, given how important a public health problem can be. But this is absolutely high on the list of reasons to avoid Covid infection right now. It is tragic that this is not something that is being discussed as a reason to prevent the impact of the jump. “
Vaccines protect against long-term Covid by about 15%, new research shows, highlighting the need for other precautions to prevent infections.
“The idea that we need to get back to normal and that’s the most important thing, instead of just using mitigation measures to save lives – it’s not really that difficult and if it normalizes, we could do it,” he said. Jimanus.
“To decide that it is perfectly good for everyone to be infected three to four times a year in the future with a new virus whose effects we do not fully understand is a huge, huge gamble,” she continued. “We just don’t know what Covid could lead to in the future… We’re playing with fire.”
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