The outbreak of monkeypox in the United Kingdom will not be easy to “fix” and is likely to last several months, according to a leading epidemiologist and scientific adviser to the government.
Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said a lot of work was needed to control the spread of infections, with 190 cases reported across the UK.
The World Health Organization said the outbreak was unlikely to turn into a pandemic, but acknowledged that the number of infections detected worldwide could be the tip of the iceberg.
A member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) told The Independent that the number of cases in the UK could eventually reach 1,000, but insisted it was a “study hypothesis”.
Professor Edmunds, who is also a member of Sage, said the fact that so many infections had “appeared around the world” showed that “there would be a problem” at the end of the epidemic.
“You will not get rid of it overnight,” he told The Independent. “It will take several good months of really solid work to pursue all infections and contacts and eliminate them.
“It will take some time. Public health teams are chasing all these transmission chains – some of them will be mysterious for all sorts of reasons.
“And the incubation period [of the monkeypox virus] is quite long – nine or 10 days, probably even longer. So the transmission chains are slow, which is good. It gives you time to connect with the track. On the other hand, if you miss some cases, then it will appear for a while. “
The UK’s Health Security Agency, which is leading the way in detecting cases and tracking close contacts, said the overall risk posed by the virus to the population “remains low”, but warned on Tuesday that it was important to work for limiting the spread of the virus’. transferred “.
In a new guideline released earlier this week, UKHSA advised anyone with the virus to abstain from sex while there are symptoms. He also recommends using condoms for eight weeks after infection as a precaution.
The majority of cases identified in the UK have been among men who have sex with men who have been told to be on the lookout for new rashes or lesions that form on every part of their body.
Prof. Edmunds said the epidemic would eventually be suppressed by a combination of contract tracking, self-isolation and vaccination of close contacts who are offered an injection designed to protect against smallpox.
“But now there are a number of cases, many transmission chains,” he said. “So this is a big headache for public health authorities around the world. I think it’s ultimately controlled. I don’t see a problem with that at all. But it will be a real effort. “
Another Sage member, who asked not to be named, said it was unlikely the monkeypox would disappear quickly after it originated in a connected network of people.
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