The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released a terrorist threat bulletin Tuesday, warning that online forums harboring domestic violent extremist content and conspiracy theories have encouraged impersonator attacks following the mass shootings at Rob Elementary School in Uwalde, Texas.
Analysts at the DHS Intelligence and Analysis Service estimate that these online platforms have also “taken advantage of the event to try to spread misinformation and provoke complaints, including allegations that it was a government-organized event designed to speed up on arms control. “
While analysts are investigating recent tragedies in search of common factors or motives, researchers have uncovered a worrying trend among gunmen in fatal mass shootings across the country.
As of 2018, six of the nine deadliest mass shootings in the United States have been carried out by armed men 21 years of age or younger.
“With younger people carrying out these attacks, we believe – and this is something we are still considering – accessing online content really fuels these personal complaints and often inaccurate misconceptions about current events.” an internal security official told reporters during a briefing this week. “It’s really difficult for younger people to navigate the Internet and understand what is considered reliable information they consume.
Among the conspiracy theories inspiring complaints is the unfounded notion of a “great exchange” or “white genocide” that falsely claims that “minorities, multiculturalists and the ruling elite are deliberately threatening the existence of the white race,” according to the bulletin.
“Racist, anti-black and anti-Semitic” sentiments and a long-standing source of terror have resurfaced in public dialogue after sparking a series of mass shootings, including an attack in Buffalo, New York, that killed 10 people at a supermarket in the city. mostly Black Eastern country.
The accused shooter published online that the buyers he was targeting came from a culture that seeks to “ethnically replace its own people.”
“The alleged 2019 striker at Walmart in El Paso, Texas cited similar complaints and inspiration for the attack, and the Buffalo and El Paso attackers said they were inspired by the 2019 striker at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand.” warned DHS. in its latest bulletin on the National Consultative System on Terrorism (NTAS), reiterating its concern about ideological beliefs that provoke imitation attacks.
In 2018, an armed man who accused Jews in an online scene of admitting immigrant “invaders” to the United States shot and killed 11 worshipers at a synagogue in Pittsburgh.
“As recent acts of violence in communities across the country have proved so tragic, the nation remains in an endangered environment and we expect this environment to become more dynamic in the coming months,” DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement. “The Department of Homeland Security remains unwavering in our commitment to providing timely information and resources to the American public and our partners at all levels of government, law enforcement, and the private sector.”
But the leap in online threats has left investigators and analysts with a hurdle: determining which extremist-oriented online forums pose real threats or, from a law enforcement point of view, can be considered “specific and credible.”
“The way the threat came about makes it difficult to determine what is really concrete and credible,” said a DHS official. “Many violent extremists often act alone, using simple tactics. They radicalize to violence based on information they often consume online.”
The official continued: “They mobilize for violence based on their perceptions of emerging or current events, and when they do, they give almost no warning. So it’s really difficult for us to understand the extent to which someone intends to carry out these attacks. “
Beyond the challenge of labeling calls for violence as “specific” or “credible”, law enforcement officials are increasingly faced with another problem.
“We see more types of actors,” said a DHS official. “Different types of actors who have different personal or ideological grievances [are] answers[ing] of events we have not seen in the past. “
Most recently, this has become an ideological spectrum that is trying to use the Supreme Court’s draft opinion with a majority of Dobbs v. Jackson – which seems to indicate that the Supreme Court is ready to overturn Rowe v. Wade – to mobilize or promote violence.
“[W]I am concerned that complaints about the restriction of access to abortion in general could provoke a wider response, not only from violent extremists in favor of choice, but also from people motivated by racial or ethnic beliefs. .. [who have] worldviews about things like “white genocide” or other conspiracy theories related to white supremacy and how they could use that environment again to promote violence. “
But the impending Supreme Court ruling is not the only current event on the radar of internal security officials. The NTAS Council also concluded that calls for violence by domestic violent extremists “targeting democratic institutions, political candidates, party offices, election events and election workers are likely to increase” during the by-elections.
“The extent to which people may still have complaints about the 2020 general elections, or any continuing misinformation or conspiracy theories that are spreading around these midterm elections … people may feel they have to do acts of violence to match the election season or the outcome of that election, “said a DHS official. “So for sure, at least in the fall, we’re keeping an eye on that.”
The ministry warned that “foreign actors” could also take advantage of interim mandates “to sow discord and influence the American public in accordance with practices during previous election cycles.”
The new newsletter expands with an NTAS newsletter published in February, due to expire on Tuesday.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, analysts also said that “Russia and other participants have also reinforced conspiracy theories, claiming that the United States is responsible for the Russia-Ukraine crisis and claiming that the United States supports biological weapons laboratories abroad.” Some of these participants used these conspiracy theories to justify calls for violence against American officials and institutions. “
The false and unfounded claim that Ukraine is developing biological weapons with the help of US government laboratories began to gain momentum on Twitter after the Russian invasion.
Tuesday’s bulletin highlighted other efforts by foreign terrorists to intensify the New York subway shooting in April 2022, in which a gasman threw two boxes of smoke and opened fire on a train platform at rush hour. led to injuries to dozens of people.
In 2022, DHS provided $ 250 million in funding to support non-profit organizations at high risk of terrorist attack, including places of worship and increased physical security. Mallorca has proposed an increase in grants to a total of $ 360 million in fiscal 2023. DHS also provided 37 grants of $ 20 million as part of its 2021 Targeted Prevention of Violence and Terrorism Program (TVTP), designed to help local communities combat extremist threats.
“Our focus is to enable the whole community, be it school staff, school administrators, counselors, faith leaders … to be involved with these people,” another senior DHS official said when asked how the federal government plans to mitigate the threat of future attacks. The official stressed that community members would be “the first to potentially identify an individual who is on the path to violence.”
The Biden administration has released more than 100 intelligence products related to domestic violent extremism, according to a senior DHS official, including six NTAS newsletters. The last one expires on November 30, 2022.
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Nicole Sganga
CBS News reporter covering domestic security and justice.
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