Rebel Tory lawmakers are betting that Boris Johnson will “explode” with new scandals over the summer so that the rules that protect him from a new vote of confidence can be changed to force him to step down.
The prime minister narrowly survived a vote for prime minister this week, aided in part by potential candidates for leadership who have decided to postpone the launch of their own campaigns.
According to the rules of the Conservative Party, Johnson was immune from a new vote for 12 months. But the Guardian understands that the 1922 Committee, which oversees such votes, could shorten that period to six months or less.
The commission’s executive elections are expected to take place in the coming weeks and will be seen by some as a de facto vote on whether to take such a step.
Given that the committee’s staff is made up mostly of lawmakers believed to want Johnson to leave – including Graham Brady, William Ragg, Nusrat Ghani and Jeffrey Clifton-Brown – the rebels said their re-election was likely to means Johnson may face another vote vote before next June.
The executive can change the rules for such competitions by a majority and does not require the support of the entire parliamentary party.
The Tory rebels admitted to pushing the “nuclear button” with Monday’s vote and were left with a few extra options to help them put pressure on Johnson. Plans are being drawn up for a “voting strike” to paralyze the government’s legislative agenda, if necessary.
But many are convinced that Johnson will “explode” with new scandals, which will give impetus to a new vote of confidence in the fall.
They cited a series of inconveniences for the prime minister – such as a dispute over standards for protecting disgraced former MP Owen Patterson, an undeclared loan to renovate Johnson’s apartment on Downing Street and Partygate – and said new “unforced errors” were likely.
Bull Johnson on Wednesday removed the shame of 41% of his lawmakers, who said they did not trust him in Monday’s private vote. He said his term as prime minister had “just begun” and said he had “recruited political opponents everywhere” because the government was achieving “some very big and very remarkable things”.
He said during the Prime Minister’s questions: “Absolutely nothing and no one will stop us from continuing to deliver to the British people.”
Boris Johnson says “nothing and no one” will stop him from continuing as prime minister – video
But he received new criticism from a Tory peer who was later forced to step down as a government adviser. Helena Morrissey, a staunch Brexit supporter, said the prime minister, who was booed at a platinum anniversary event last weekend, suggested he had “become a liability, not an asset”.
Asked if Johnson should continue, Lady Morrissey told LBC: “Honestly, I prefer not to. She said he was “at the wrong job”, had shown no remorse and should “walk with dignity”.
After Morrissey’s intervention, which was made by Johnson as a peer in September 2020, he was told to leave his role on the Foreign Office board and he did.
A former adviser to 10 said it was “a mistake for the prime minister to be happy with the democrats” because once someone has revolted and “crossed the Rubicon” to vote against him, it will be difficult to bring him back.
But they said potential leaders such as Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat are likely to remain silent for now. Other cabinet ministers were thought to be seeking the top job, but those who remained loyal included Liz Trus, the foreign minister, and Nadhim Zahawi, the education minister.
The former adviser said: “No one wants to solve the collective problem of the leadership race, which requires many people to take the leap individually.
Government sources downplayed the threat of an immediate cabinet reshuffle, suggesting number 10 was nervous about making more enemies by downgrading ministers.
As many Tories are “pricing” the expected defeat in two by-elections on June 23 – in Wakefield for Labor and in Tiverton and Honiton for the Liberal Democrats – sources suggest Johnson would like to wait until the end of these races before a new reset of the government.
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