Press play to hear this article
LONDON – Wounded by his party and with his leadership in jeopardy, Boris Johnson reaches out – once again – to the Brexit button.
This week, the British Prime Minister laid the finishing touches on the controversial legislation, which will unilaterally rewrite parts of the Brexit divorce deal he negotiated with Brussels in 2019.
The long-awaited bill to change the rules governing trade between Britain and Northern Ireland was signed by Johnson within 48 hours of a dramatic vote in his leadership Monday night, with 41 per cent of his own MPs calling for him to leave.
Now, in preparation for his political battle, Johnson hopes to reap domestic dividends from the hostile dispute with Brussels. But it is a risky endeavor for a weakened prime minister, with many Tory MPs, disgruntled business groups, campaign lawyers and outraged EU politicians lining up against him.
“It’s a big gamble and it’s in a less good position than it was a week ago because of opposition to it,” said Bronwyn Maddox, director of the Institute for Government think tank.
The legislation, which is due to be published on Monday and has a wide scope, is the latest and most controversial step in Britain’s longstanding effort to revise the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is said to create a bureaucratic nightmare for businesses delivering goods to the region. from the rest of the United Kingdom
The bill will simply allow ministers not to implement parts of the agreement and instead enforce their own decisions. These include the creation of a ‘green tape’ without friction for trusted British traders transporting goods to Northern Ireland that are not destined for the EU single market. Products destined for the EU will be placed in the so-called “red tape” and will be subject to full checks and customs controls, says the United Kingdom.
Businesses in Northern Ireland will be able to choose between complying with British or European standards in a new dual regulatory regime – essentially allowing companies to decide whether to trade freely with the EU or the rest of the UK. The bill will also allow the UK government to rewrite all tax and spending policies in Northern Ireland – which means, for example, that VAT reductions can be applied across the UK.
Most controversial of all would be the UK government’s call for an arbitration mechanism to limit the role of the Court of Justice.
Historic Low Point
In a speech to the European Parliament on Wednesday, Michel Martin, the Irish prime minister, warned that any decision by Britain to act unilaterally on the protocol would be “deeply harmful” and would mean a “historic low”.
The European Commission, which wants Britain to commit to EU proposals, is “absolutely against” the idea of a dual regulatory system, saying it would be “impossible to implement”, an EU official said.
Visits by Commission officials to Britain have been temporarily frozen as an additional sign of cooling bilateral relations, a second EU official said. Cooperation in other areas, including research and development under the EU’s Horizon Europe program, will remain suspended for the time being.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson goes with Taoisach Michael Martin in Belfast in 2020 | Brian Lawless / WPA Pool / Getty Images
Some in the British government sincerely believe that they have no choice but to act unilaterally. They argue that the plan, led by Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, will eliminate disruption to traders operating across the Irish Sea; help Northern Ireland benefit from the tax breaks offered to the rest of the country; and ultimately needed to restore the sharing of power in Northern Ireland and protect the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom.
“The goal is to solve problems and ensure the security of businesses and communities,” said a UK official. “Obviously we would still – and will always prefer – to do this with the EU, but in any case, the sooner we can rebalance the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement, the better. Everyone must be able to agree to this. “
But most importantly, some on Downing Street also see a chance to bolster much-needed public support for Johnson.
Deputy Prime Minister David Canzini’s chief of staff told Tory special advisers that Brexit should be at the top of the government’s agenda as a way to keep Johnson’s main voters engaged in areas that support leaving – in particular those who replaced Labor with the Tories in the 2019 general election.
The question after Monday’s shaky vote of confidence is whether the prime minister can take his deputies with him.
Legal pitfalls
So far, Johnson has retained broad support in the cabinet for his Brexit approach. But in the corridors of Westminster, some conservative rebels who voted against him on Monday are holding preliminary talks on whether to oppose the bill.
At this stage, a full-scale revolt seems unlikely. Some lawmakers prefer to wait to see if the bill will be amended, while others fear Johnson will punish the rebels with the loss of the Tories’ whip.
“I don’t feel like ‘dying in a ditch’ right now – but things can get hot spots very quickly,” said a Tory MP. “Losing the whip will not help the party at all. It doesn’t require discipline, it just builds a new barrier. “
There are also fears that unfortunate ministers – or even senior lawyers – in Johnson’s government may resign over the UK’s position.
The bill could also hit problems in the House of Lords, effectively blocking its adoption with lengthy attempts at amendment. Under normal circumstances, the unelected second chamber would eventually back down, but if colleagues believe the bill is “wrong and unconstitutional,” it is “entirely possible” they would refuse, said Jonathan Jones, a senior consultant at Linklaters law firm and former head of the legal department. of the United Kingdom Government.
For their part, Trass and Attorney General Suela Braverman insisted the government’s approach did not violate international law, but refused to issue legal advice in support of the position. A second UK official said the government based its plan on the need to protect the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty that preceded the protocol that ended decades of sectoral violence in Northern Ireland.
Johnson hinted at that Wednesday at the House of Commons. “The most important commitment … is for the balance and symmetry of the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement. “This is our highest legal international priority and this is what we need to achieve,” he said.
Jones, who left the government in 2020 amid an earlier dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol, called the argument “very unconvincing.” The government “always knew about the Good Friday Agreement”, which the protocol “designed deliberately and carefully for protection”, he said.
The most obvious way for the EU to challenge the law would be to renew infringement proceedings against the United Kingdom, which it froze last year, or to take new action on the latest breaches of the protocol. Both options are on the table, according to a second EU official.
Disorders abound
Additional legal pitfalls may lie for Johnson. Businesses in Northern Ireland that can prove that the UK’s proposals are hurting their interests could potentially seek judicial scrutiny once the law is passed.
Truss’s dual regulatory system “looks good on paper to retailers, but it’s a disaster for everyone else,” said Stephen Kelly, CEO of Manufacturing NI’s lobby group. In particular, agricultural producers will suffer if the United Kingdom deviates from EU standards in areas such as pesticides, he warned.
The political opposition in Washington is also emerging in the minds of Tory MPs. However, British ministers have traveled regularly to the United States in recent months to try to reassure both the White House and Congress of their plans, and now believe the US administration is more sympathetic to the UK’s position.
At heart, Johnson remains a gambler. Recourse to the Brexit button is a temptation that is hard to resist for a prime minister who came to power on the back of Britain’s exit from the EU.
“Brexit will not be over until someone finds a solution,” said Maddox of IfG.
This article is part of POLITICO Pro
One-stop solution for policy professionals merging the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology
Exclusive, shattering pumps and insights
Custom platform for policy intelligence
High level public affairs network
Add Comment