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SLOVYANSK, Ukraine – The euphoria that accompanies Ukraine’s unforeseen early victories against inconvenient Russian troops is fading as Moscow adapts its tactics, regains its stride and consolidates its enormous firepower against heavily superior Ukrainian forces.
Newly promised Western weapons systems are arriving, but too slowly and in insufficient quantities to prevent Russia’s growing but relentless successes in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass, which is now at the center of the battle.
The Ukrainians are still retaliating, but they are running out of ammunition and suffering casualties at a much higher rate than in the early stages of the war. About 200 Ukrainian soldiers are now being killed every day, up from 100 at the end of last month, presidential aide Vladimir Zelensky told the BBC on Friday, meaning up to 1,000 Ukrainians are withdrawn from the battle each day, including those who are wounded.
The Russians are still making mistakes and are also losing people and equipment, albeit at a slower pace than in the first months of the conflict. As a sign that they are suffering from a shortage of equipment, they were seen in videos posted on social media taking hundreds of canned Soviet-era T-62 tanks out of storage to be sent to Ukraine.
But the overall trajectory of the war has unmistakably deviated from one of Russia’s unexpectedly grim failures and shifted in Russia’s favor as the apparently stronger power.
Ukrainians and the United States hope that new supplies of Western weapons will enable Ukraine to regain the initiative and eventually regain approximately 20 percent of the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia after its invasion on February 24, starting to look premature, said Alexander V. Danyliuk, adviser to the Ukrainian government on defense and intelligence.
“The strategies and tactics of the Russians are completely different at the moment. They are much more successful, “he said. “They have more resources than us and are in no hurry.”
“There is much less room for optimism at the moment,” he added.
Ukrainian forces remain determined. In a cafe in the town of Slavyansk on the front line, two Ukrainian soldiers who broke away from a nearby trench told how they were forced to withdraw from the town of Dovkhenke, northwest of Slavyansk, under fading Russian artillery fire. Thirty-five of their 100-strong unit were killed in the attack, typical of Russia’s tactics. “They destroy everything and come in,” said one of the soldiers, 41-year-old Vitaly Martsiv.
“There is nothing there,” 52-year-old Andrei Tikhonenko told Dovhenke. “Everything burned down.”
As troop deaths increased, surviving soldiers felt “more motivated to hold their ground,” Tikhonenko said. Retiring after their comrades were killed defending the city, he said, would treat their deaths as insignificant.
But in the end, the defensive line was no longer effective, the two men said. With more than a third of their forces killed, the remaining soldiers had no choice but to withdraw.
“Sometimes you feel anxious,” Tikhonenko said. “But then you realize that war is war – and you have to end it.”
Russian artillery strikes Ukraine’s forces as Russia advances into eastern Ukraine
But the chances against the Ukrainians are beginning to look huge, said Danilyuk, a government adviser.
“The Russians are using distant artillery against us, often without an answer, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from tens of kilometers, and we can’t shoot back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we have no means of attack. “
Ukraine has now almost completely exhausted ammunition for Soviet-era weapons systems that formed the basis of its arsenal, and Eastern European countries that maintain the same systems have run out of donations, Danilyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to move to longer and more complex Western systems, but they have only recently been introduced and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s enormous firepower, he said.
Russia fires up to 50,000 artillery shots a day at Ukrainian positions, and Ukrainians can retaliate with only about 5,000 to 6,000 shots a day, he said. The United States has pledged to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition – enough to match Russia’s firepower in about four days.
Most U.S. artillery guns with the M777 howitzer, which U.S. officials said would allow Ukraine to coincide with Russian firepower, are now in use on the battlefield, according to the Pentagon. But the Russians continue to make progress.
Four of the more sophisticated and longer-range HIMARS jet refueling systems that Ukrainians have long requested from the United States are on the way, along with three similar systems promised by Britain. But Ukrainians will first need to be trained on how to use them, and they are still weeks away from the battlefield, US officials say. The Pentagon has hinted that more systems will be provided once Ukrainians show they can be used.
But the Russians started the war with about 900 similar systems, and although the Ukrainians claim to have destroyed hundreds, the Russians still have hundreds, Danilyuk said.
Meanwhile, the Russians adapted their tactics in ways that allowed them to take full advantage of their firepower by staying away from Ukrainian positions, striking them mercilessly, and then capturing territory after the Ukrainians were forced to retreat.
The Russians are also better at combining their weapons, using close air support and deploying infantry, said Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine who is now at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.
Russian authorities say they are advancing more slowly than during the initial invasion to avoid civilian casualties. Instead, however, the tactic is helping to reduce Russian casualties while inflicting heavy losses on civilians living in the towns and villages that are under attack, analysts say.
“I’m afraid of every bump or sound,” Irina McAgon said as she sat in her kitchen in Konstantinovka, a town near the front line that had been heavily bombed. She was sitting in her kitchen earlier this week when thunder and whistles heralded an incoming projectile that exploded in a neighboring house, killing a young man.
“They are in hell”: The hail of incoming Russian artillery tests Ukrainian morale
Ukrainians are still fighting well and could inflict tactical pain on the Russians when the opportunity arises, said Dmitry Alperovich of Silverado Consultancy, citing Russia’s disastrous attempt to cross the Seversky Donets River late last month; hundreds of Russians were killed and dozens of military vehicles destroyed. Ukrainians are also launching successful drone strikes against Russian positions and supply columns, he said.
Russia has not released data on victims since March. “But when you look at what is happening, I would be shocked if the Russians suffer casualties close to what the Ukrainians are at the moment,” Alperovich said.
The workforce is less of a problem for Ukrainians than a shortage of ammunition and equipment, said Danilyuk, who set the number of men who signed up for a potential battle at 6 million. But Ukraine does not have the equipment, including protective equipment and guns, as well as artillery systems to bring out all those who want to join voluntarily. “We will send them to their deaths without equipment,” he said.
The Russians are also facing a shortage of manpower after the heavy losses they suffered in the early days of the war. Western officials have estimated the number of Russian deaths at 15,000 to 20,000 so far, with about a third of the original invading forces becoming unfit for battle due to injuries, seizures and equipment losses after the disasters in the first two months.
But Russia has recovered more than many military analysts have expected, increasing its depleted army to 40,000 to 50,000 in the past two months, raising the age of the reserve force, deploying new forces and rebuilding destroyed, Danilyuk said.
For now, the Donetsk River stands in the way of new significant Russian achievements. Western officials say they expect Russian troops to soon gain full control of the city of Severodonetsk and then likely turn their attention to the city of Lisishansk, across the river, which will give them full control of the Luhansk region. They can then be expected to move to the larger Donetsk region, which Russia has partially controlled since 2014.
Lisishansk will be a more difficult challenge as Ukrainians control the highlands and Russian artillery strength is less of an advantage in close city combat, said Konrad Muzika, director of the Warsaw-based defense advisory service Rochan Consulting. Russia may find it difficult to sustain its latest gains for much more than that, given the losses it has suffered so far, he said.
But if the Russians manage to break through the river, they can start advancing quickly, he said.
“Ukrainians are resting their defense on the Donetsk river. “If Russia successfully crosses the river, my concern is that the Russians will enter Donetsk in full force, and then the Ukrainians may be defeated,” he said.
Sly announced from London. Heidi Levine from Slavyansk contributed to this report.
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