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When Ontario Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca said he would resign after last week’s provincial election, he was the latest addition to a large group of Canadian party leaders who received just one hit in the ballot box.
Conservative leaders Andrew Shear and Erin O’Toole got just one chance. Liberal leaders Stefan Dion and Michael Ignatiev received only one opportunity each. Iain Rankin in Nova Scotia and Andrew Wilkinson in BC each had only one chance to win.
Almost all of these leaders have resigned. But they definitely seemed to be leaving amid internal party pressure to avoid the inconvenience of being expelled.
Not so for every leader. That night, when Del Duca resigned after an election as leader, Andrea Horvath resigned after four at the top of the Ontario NDP. Stephen Harper lost his first election before winning the next three. Robert Stanfield received three blows before Joe Clark took over the Federal Tories. The most extreme examples, Wilfred Laurier and Mackenzie King, led their parties in seven elections, with several losses scattered among the victories.
These days, party leaders who lose elections often (but not always) resign. Winning undoubtedly helps with longevity, but for those who lose, is the mind-boggling one-size-fits-all pattern growing?
Western University political scientist Christine de Clercy says that although there is a general lack of patience with leaders these days, it makes no sense to think of it as a one-way street.
“I think we’re just in a different period, as we had in the past, when public and party expectations around leaders are very strict. And if leaders can’t win, then they’re out,” she said.
Great expectations
The reason, says de Clercy, comes down to expectations. Leaders who fail to deliver on a promise they made to the party have been set aside, which is why Del Duca bowed, she said.
The Liberals went from seven seats in 2018 to just eight seats in the last Ontario election and were third again.
“The scale of last week’s results was simply not expected,” de Clairce said. “Just to outline an alternative hypothesis, if the Liberals believed they wouldn’t get seats last week and got eight seats, he looks like a hero.
She emphasized that the expectations set by the parties were not always “necessarily reasonable” – so it was not all about the leader’s performance.
Alex Marland, a political scientist at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, agrees that expectations are the main variable that determines whether a party leader should face music after a losing campaign.
But he also says the stakes are generally higher for leaders now, given their expanded role in politics and greater commitment to the party’s brand.
And with the advent of social media and more political coverage in general, Canadians may simply be overexposed to leaders who then “lose their luster” faster, he said.
WATCH Horvat withdraws:
NDP leader Andrea Horvat has announced her resignation
The Hamilton politician, who won Thursday’s re-election, was emotional after failing to become Ontario’s prime minister in his fourth attempt
“Political leaders have a shorter shelf life than before,” he said. “People just get tired of seeing the same leaders all the time.”
They are also subject to simple ups and downs of guerrilla popularity or voter fatigue from a particular leader or party, he said.
And in general, different countries have different expectations. While federal liberal or conservative leaders may be expected to have their respective supporters form a government of any choice, the same may not be true for the new Democrats, leading to some relative stability.
“Many of [the NDP’s] the leaders suffered terrible losses, but they were campaigning in principle. And members expect that, and they’re happy with that, “de Clercy said.” While, in contrast, liberals and conservatives are talking about power, about victory. “
Marland says each party has developed its own unique culture of leadership, with the NDP often happy to be “parliament’s moral conscience”.
Women tend to have more insecure leaders
De Clercy also says not all leaders receive the same level of charity when it comes to meeting expectations. Women, she says, tend to be more insecure in their leadership.
“They are not always, but they are often more likely to be challenged and expelled,” she said. “And when there’s a case of replacing them … things are moving pretty fast.”
Many women politicians are also faced with what is called the “glass rock” phenomenon – to be given the reins at a particularly weak time for the party.
Marland says the Conservatives have been particularly ruthless with losing candidates recently. The party will elect a new leader this fall. And whoever he is, their condition will largely depend on who leads the federal liberals in the next election.
If Justin Trudeau decides not to run, the future of the new Tory leader will be a bit out of the ordinary, Marland said.
But if Trudeau leads the Liberals again, as he said he would, the stakes are even higher, because after 10 years out of power, the Conservatives believe they deserve victory.
“If Trudeau is running in the next election … and he returns as prime minister, I think the Conservatives would just be so angry that they will have to blame someone and blame everyone who is a leader.”
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