The Nova Scotia government says there have been 421 COVID-19 deaths in the province since the pandemic began, but an infectious disease researcher says the number is likely to have been reduced by at least 200.
Tara Moriarty, an associate professor at the University of Toronto, called it a “conservative assessment” and warned that the number would increase.
“A lot of Omicron deaths are coming,” she said.
She said it was important to note that under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths was the “norm” worldwide, even in high-income countries.
Moriarty is part of the COVID-19 Resources Canada project team, which is doing modeling to help members of the public better understand the COVID-19 situation. Receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada for his work.
What is super-mortality?
Moriarty said that in order to get an accurate picture of how many COVID-19 deaths remain unaccounted for, one must look at over-mortality, when more deaths occur than expected.
Data released Thursday by Statistics Canada estimates that from March 2020 to mid-February 2022, there were approximately 40,349 deaths in the country, or seven percent more deaths than expected.
Tara Moriarty is an infectious disease expert and researcher at the University of Toronto. She says Nova Scotia is lagging behind in reporting deaths. (Lisa Son / CBC)
However, the situation has worsened a lot since the beginning of January due to Omicron.
“Canada is experiencing a new period of significant over-mortality, beginning in January 2022,” said Statistics Canada. “From the beginning to the end of January, there were 4,085 over-deaths observed at the national level, or 13.2% more deaths than expected if there was no pandemic.
Statistics Canada estimates that there have been 181 fewer deaths than expected in Nova Scotia since the pandemic began. However, data for Nova Scotia do not reach until October 23, 2021, which is before the wave of Omicron hit the province.
Approximately three-quarters of official COVID-19 deaths in Nova Scotia have occurred since December.
“There are many more deaths that will still come from Nova Scotia because Nova Scotia simply did not report [that data]”Moriarty said.
Of the 21 deaths from COVID-19 announced by the province during their weekly update on Thursday, officials said 19 of the deaths occurred between April 25 and May 30.
How Nova Scotia classifies deaths from COVID-19
In Nova Scotia, deaths attributed to COVID-19 capture both people who have died from coronavirus infection or when COVID is thought to be a contributing factor.
“When people have underlying conditions, it becomes more complicated, but if COVID may have contributed to the death, we consider it a COVID-related death,” Health and Wellness spokeswoman Marla McInnis said in a statement.
“In situations that are more complex, such as a person dying from multiple contributing factors, cases are reviewed by clinicians and / or public health to determine if COVID-19 may have contributed.”
In cases where the cause of death is unknown or there is a suspicion that a person has COVID-19, tests are performed to find evidence of the disease.
Moriarty said the deaths could still be missed.
“Many deaths in the elderly do not necessarily look the way we usually think of COVID as a respiratory infection,” she said. “Many older people, when they develop respiratory infections, have no obvious symptoms until they can no longer breathe and die.”
Older people in Nova Scotia are facing higher mortality rates
As of December 8, 2021, the average age of people who died from COVID-19 in Nova Scotia was 81, according to the province.
It says that the risk of death from COVID-19 is 125 times higher for people aged 70 and over than for people under 50.
While Omicron was declared a lightweight strain of COVID-19, Moriarty said the reality was much more complicated.
“What I want people to understand is that if you qualify for fourth doses, take them immediately,” she said.
“There are still a lot of Omicrons. And every week that passes, the protection you have from vaccines, from your third dose, falls [you] indeed, you are becoming more and more likely to become infected and potentially die if you are susceptible. “
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