PARIS / BERLIN / WASHINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) – Is it better to contact Russian President Vladimir Putin about his invasion of Ukraine or isolate him? Should Kyiv make concessions to end the war, or will this encourage the Kremlin? Is the intensified sanctions against Russia worth the accompanying damage?
These are some of the questions testing an international alliance that quickly united around Ukraine in the days after the Russian invasion, but this three months after the war is tense, officials and diplomats told Reuters.
As Western governments grapple with spiraling inflation and energy spending, countries, including Italy and Hungary, have called for a quick ceasefire. This could pave the way for a reduction in sanctions and end the blockade of Ukrainian ports, which has exacerbated the food security crisis for the world’s poorest.
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However, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states warn that Russia should not be trusted and say a ceasefire will allow it to consolidate territorial victories, regroup and launch more attacks in the future.
“The Russians have spread the story that this will be a grueling war, we must sit around the table and seek consensus,” a senior Ukrainian official told Reuters.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has said he wants Russia to be “weakened”, and President Joe Biden has called on Putin to be tried for war crimes. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Kyiv should not be heavily armed to accept a bad peace deal and that Ukraine “should win”. Read more
Germany and France have remained more ambiguous, promising to halt Putin’s victory instead of defeating him, while supporting new tough sanctions.
“The question that arises is whether we are returning to the Cold War or not. That is the difference between Biden, Johnson and us,” an ally of French President Emmanuel Macron told Reuters.
Russia launched what it calls a “special operation” in Ukraine in February, saying it was needed to rid the country of dangerous nationalists and humiliate Ukraine’s military capabilities – goals the West denounced as an unfounded pretext.
Since then, Moscow has claimed that military support from Washington and its allies has protracted the war and deterred Ukraine from negotiating peace talks. In March, the Kremlin demanded that Ukraine end hostilities, change its constitution to declare neutrality, recognize Crimea as Russian, and recognize separatist-controlled eastern territories as independent states as a condition for peace.
Ukrainian and French sources, as well as officials in other countries advised by Reuters on the story, have asked for anonymity to speak freely on sensitive diplomatic and security policies.
The divisions may become more pronounced as sanctions and war affect the world economy, risking internal reactions and playing into Putin’s hands.
“It was clear from the beginning that it would get harder over time – the fatigue of the war is coming,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas told CNN.
“There may be a difference between those countries that have much better neighbors than us and those that have different histories like us, the Baltic countries and Poland.
WORKING WITH MR. PUTIN
Macron warned that peace should not “humiliate” Russia, as it did for Germany in 1918.
He, like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, keeps the channels of communication with the Kremlin open, causing terror in the surrounding countries. The Polish president compared the calls to a conversation with Adolf Hitler during World War II. Read more
“We will have to deal with Mr Putin at some point, unless there is a palace coup. And all the more so because this war must be as short as possible,” Macron’s ally said.
Scholz said his talks with Macron and Putin had been used to convey solid and clear messages, and stressed that sanctions against Russia would not end unless Putin withdrew troops and agreed to a peace deal acceptable to Kyiv.
However, one of Scholz’s team told Reuters that Macron’s wording was “unsuccessful”. Some French diplomats have also expressed private reservations about Macron’s position, saying it risks alienating Ukraine and its Eastern European allies.
While grateful for Western support, Ukraine has shuddered at proposals to cede territory as part of a ceasefire agreement, and sometimes doubts whether its allies are properly united against Russia.
Macron’s warning not to humiliate Russia prompted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to warn that France is only humiliating itself and that Kyiv’s relations with Scholz are icy. Read more
“We don’t have Churchill in the whole of the European Union. We have no illusions about that,” said a senior Ukrainian official, referring to Britain’s wartime prime minister, Winston Churchill.
A spokesman for the French presidency said “there is no spirit of concession to Putin or Russia in what the president says.” France wants Ukraine’s victory and Ukrainian territories restored, the official said, and the dialogue with Putin is “not a compromise, but to say things the way we see them.”
A spokesman for the US administration said Washington was more skeptical that Russia was acting in good faith, but denied there was a “strategic difference” between the allies.
A State Department spokesman told Reuters that the United States, working with allies, had “delivered” to Ukraine – with sanctions, arms transfers and other measures – despite skeptics even before the invasion, who questioned the alliance’s unity. The goal, the spokesman said, is to put Ukraine in a strong negotiating position.
WEAKEN RUSSIA?
Citing Austin’s comments, the first official said Washington had no plans to change Russia’s leadership, but wanted to see the country weakened to the point that it could not carry out a similar attack on Ukraine.
“Everyone focused on the first part of what Austin said, not the second part. We want to see Russia weakened to the point that it can’t do something like this again,” the official said.
A source in the German government said Austin’s goal of weakening Russia was problematic. It is unfortunate that German Foreign Minister Analena Burbock, of Scholz’s coalition partner the Greens, has backed the goal, the source said, as it complicates the question of when sanctions can ever be lifted, whether Ukraine agrees to a peace deal or not.
Sources from the German government also said they were worried that some in the West could push Ukraine towards unrealistic military goals, including the return of Russia’s annexed Crimean peninsula in 2014, which could prolong the conflict.
Burbock has said publicly that the sanctions will have to remain in place until Russian troops withdraw from Crimea.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany has repeatedly criticized Germany for delaying sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, although Berlin has strongly defended its support. Read more
Senior adviser to President Vladimir Zelensky Mikhail Podoliak signals Ukraine’s disappointment:
“Russia should not win, but we will not give heavy weapons – this could offend Russia. Putin must lose, but let us not impose new sanctions. Millions will starve to death, but we are not ready for military convoys of grain.” he tweeted May 31.
“Rising prices are not the worst thing a democratic world can expect with such a policy,” he said.
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Reports by John Irish and Michelle Rose in Paris, Humeirah Pamuk and Andrea Shalal in Washington, Andreas Rinke and Sarah Marsh in Berlin, Elizabeth Piper in London; writing by Matthias Williams; Edited by Frank Jack Daniel
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