Short answer: Probably not.
Longer answer: Probably not, and even if it is, it may not be dangerous enough to cause real damage, given how immune the population is now.
I wrote about the new Omicron sub-variants, BA.4 and BA.5, a few weeks ago. Early indications are that they are more contagious than the current dominant sub-variant in the US, BA.2.12.1, which is more contagious than the original Omicron, which itself was insanely contagious. Even worse, since Omicron’s natural immunity seems to last only a few months, a previous infection is not a real protection against BA.4 and BA.5. In fact, both are so immune that they may be able to break through immunity even in someone who has had a recent infection.
The bottom line is that people will get COVID over and over again in the Omicron era. There is no prospect of a vaccine in the short term to prevent it either: Although mRNA vaccines do a good job of boosting immunity to serious diseases, a vaccine that will give immunity to an infection like the smallpox vaccine seems far away.
So we are all destined to eventually catch some sub-variant of Omicron or another. In this case, it is important to know whether these subvariants are becoming more virulent.
You may recall that after Omicron erupted in Africa last winter, scientists were trying to understand why those infected with it appear to have milder symptoms than previous coronavirus strains. According to some researchers, the answer is related to where the virus has taken root in the body. Previous strains reproduce in the lungs, causing deadly pneumonia that has killed millions. However, Omicron does not reproduce efficiently in the lungs. It multiplies in the upper respiratory tract. As it did not affect major organs, more people could shake it off without serious damage.
Researchers in Japan say they have evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 spread better in the lungs than their grandparents.
According to preliminary data from Kay Sato of the University of Tokyo and colleagues, BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 may have evolved to prevent infection of lung cells rather than upper respiratory tract tissue, which makes it more similar to earlier versions, such as Alpha or Delta …
Professor Sato’s experiments show that BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 reproduce more efficiently in human lung cells than BA.2, while additional experiments with hamsters suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 may cause more severe illness.
“These things seem to be returning to a more dangerous form of infection, so they go lower in the lungs,” said Dr. Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds.
Game over, man. Game over.
Or is it so? Let’s look at some numbers. According to this site, BA.4 and BA.5 represent the vast majority of cases in the last 60 days in South Africa, the country most affected by the new sub-options. In the last 60 days, BA.4 accounted for 63 percent of confirmed cases, while BA.5 accounted for 20 percent more. Sixty days is also enough time for an influx of deaths to appear in the data, as the typical period from infection to death due to COVID is about a month. Have we seen a recent death toll in South Africa due to the ominous spread of BA.4 and BA.5?
We do not:
South African researcher Tulio de Oliveira, who triggered Omicron’s global alarm last year, said BA.4 and BA.5 were * at least * the deadliest wave the country has ever experienced.
It is more difficult to draw firm conclusions for the United States and the United Kingdom, as BA.4 and BA.5 are either not yet dominant or have not been dominant long enough to allow us to conclude how deadly they can be. . Scholars in England believe that the two sub-variants are spreading rapidly there, probably fueled by Queen Elizabeth’s recent jubilee celebrations. Cases have risen by more than 30 percent in the past seven days – as have hospitalizations in particular. This is interesting circumstantial evidence that there may be something in the Japanese data for greater virulence. But how much bigger? Here’s what the death curve looks like:
It is possible that many of the recently hospitalized will die in the next week or two, sending the curve up, but there is still no evidence that the wave that England is currently experiencing is particularly deadly. This may be because BA.4 and BA.5 are not as virulent as one fears, but it may also be that medicine has caught up with the virus and transformed the COVID cases that would have been fatal a year ago into short hospital stay. Combine broad population immunity with better therapeutic agents such as Paxlovid and a much larger knowledge base among physicians and nurses on how to treat the disease in the emergency department, and even a virulent subvariant may not be as virulent in practice. Both sub-options may be dangerous enough to send you to the hospital more often than Omicron, but they are probably not dangerous enough to send you to the morgue. In any case, not at this stage of the pandemic.
Another look at the data. Look back at the excerpt above and you will see that Japanese researchers have found that BA.2.12.1, not just BA.4 and BA.5, appears to reproduce more efficiently in the lungs than the original Omicron. Well, according to the CDC, there have been many BA.2.12.1 in the US since early May:
We have experienced the same phenomenon that England has had in these six weeks, with not only an increase in cases but also hospitalizations. In fact, the number of people hospitalized with COVID is now twice as high as it was in mid-April, more circumstantial evidence that Omicron’s sub-variants are indeed more virulent. But what do we see when we look at the death curve?
No jump. In fact, according to Drudge, we had fewer deaths from COVID yesterday (293) than on the same date a year ago (301), although we had almost * nine times * more confirmed cases – and probably many more times. in fact, if we could include all the people who gave a positive result yesterday in quick tests, but never bothered to confirm their infection with a laboratory. Even in the era of Omicron subvariants, the virus kills significantly fewer people as a percentage of infections than before. There is still no good reason to believe that BA.4 and BA.5 are particularly threatening.
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