JERUSALEM (AP) – After just 12 months in office, the leaders of Israel’s broad-based but severely weakened coalition government threw down the towel this week, saying they would dissolve parliament and hold new elections – the fifth in 3 1/2 years.
Why does this continue to happen?
The simplest answer is that Israel is deeply – and almost evenly – divided over whether Benjamin Netanyahu should be prime minister. But it is also because Israel’s political system consists of an ideologically diverse set of parties that must form alliances – and sometimes destroy them – to get what they want.
Here’s a look at how Israel got to this point and what’s next.
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MULTIPARTY POLICY
Israelis vote in parties, and in the country’s 74-year history, no faction has won a majority in the 120-member parliament known as the Knesset. So after each election, each future prime minister must form alliances to get a majority of at least 61 seats.
This gives the small parties enormous power. After almost every election, the focus is on one or more potential kings and their specific requirements. Thirteen parties were elected to parliament, for example, in last year’s elections. This could lead to weeks of negotiations and horse trading between different party leaders.
If no one manages to win a majority, as happened after the elections in April and September 2019, the country returns to the elections and the government remains in office.
However, it should not be so difficult. Nationalist and religious parties have won a majority of seats in the Knesset in each of the last four elections, if only they could agree among themselves.
Netanyahu intervenes here.
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LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM
For his right-wing and religious supporters, Netanyahu is the “King of Israel” – an unforgiving nationalist and veteran statesman who can stand up to world leaders, from Russian Vladimir Putin to US President Joe Biden, guiding Israel through its countless security challenges.
For his opponents – including the leaders of the outgoing coalition – he is a swindler at best and a threat to democracy at worst. They point to his ongoing corruption process, his power style and his habit of inciting internal divisions for political gain.
Netanyahu was Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, and his Likud party was in first or slightly second place in all four elections. But he never managed to form a right-wing majority because some of his ideological allies – including former aides – refused to partner with him.
Take Avigdor Lieberman, for example. The West Bank settler, who heads a right-wing party and has long been known for his fiery anti-Arab rhetoric, would appear to be an obvious ally. But he broke with Netanyahu in 2019 and refuses to sit in government with him or his ultra-Orthodox allies.
Lieberman even supports a bill that would ban anyone charged with criminal charges from being prime minister, an attempt to end Netanyahu’s political career.
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A SMALL COALITION
Last year, after the №4 election, Netanyahu’s opponents managed to overthrow him.
Naftali Bennett, another right-wing former ally of Netanyahu, and centrist Jair Lapid have formed a coalition of eight political parties across the ideological spectrum, from right-wing nationalists to defenders of Palestinian statehood, including a small Arab Islamist party.
The factions abandoned their ideological differences and worked together for some time. The government adopted a budget, overcame two waves of coronavirus without imposing a blockade, improved diplomatic ties with Arab and Muslim countries, and avoided war. Bennett, as prime minister, even tried to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
But from the start, the government had the smallest majority, and Netanyahu put enormous pressure on his right-wing members, accusing them of partnering with terrorists and betraying their constituents. Several right-wing coalition members received death threats, including Bennett.
In the end, many got distorted and Bennett’s party with Yamina almost collapsed. The government lost its majority in April. This month, it failed to pass a law extending the special legal status of Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, which most Israelis consider essential.
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NEW ELECTIONS, SAME DIVISION
The Israelis are expected to return to the polls as soon as possible in October, where they will be tired of facing a familiar choice.
Netanyahu is hoping for a return, and Likud and his allies are expected to win more votes than last time. Some of his right-wing opponents, weakened by ties to the coalition, may lose some or all of their seats.
But it is too early for any credible research, and even if Netanyahu and his allies secure more seats, they may not reach a majority again.
If that happens, many of the same parties that formed the outgoing government will be left to form a new coalition that will face the same stressors as the previous one.
And if none of the countries has enough support to form a government?
You guessed it: New elections.
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