It was supposed to be a fact. Three months after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine, the governments of Finland and Sweden formally applied for NATO membership on May 18 in defense of future Russian military aggression.
President Biden immediately signaled his approval, saying the alliance’s enlargement would “make NATO stronger”, and a month earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a longtime ally of Putin, told Finnish President Sauli Niinistö that there was no enlargement problem.
But Erdogan “can change 180 degrees per second without looking back,” Turkish-born Cengiz Chandar, a senior fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, told Yahoo News. On May 19, Erdogan did just that, announcing that Turkey would block rapid NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, which requires unanimous support from member states for his claims that the two nations are “guest houses for terrorist organizations”.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Adem Altan / AFP via Getty Images)
Former State Department diplomat Elizabeth Shackleford, now a senior member of the Chicago Board of Global Affairs, told Yahoo News that the move was a “classic Erdogan”, adding that he “will not give up the opportunity to use leverage and where it is more better to do it than in an alliance based on unanimity of decisions? “
Erdogan’s demands focus mainly on the extradition of Turkish enemies, such as members of the militant, terrorized Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey has been fighting against for 38 years, and followers of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom he claims that he was behind the 2016 coup attempt to overthrow him. Finland has extradited two of Turkey’s 10 people and reportedly evaluates seven more while Sweden passes a new anti-terrorism law. But Turkey is still unhappy and insists on extraditing others for crimes, including public criticism of Erdogan.
“In order to fully meet all of Turkey’s demands, Sweden will have to become an alternative kind of authoritarian police state,” Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, told Yahoo News.
The story continues
Finnish analysts share the opinion. “Most of the requests are impossible to fulfill, such as the extradition of a person just because he used Bylock [encrypted] statement or wrote a comment on Facebook critical of President Erdogan, “Tony Alaranta, a senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told Balkan Insight.
“Many Kurds in Sweden are worried that Sweden will sacrifice them on the altar of NATO membership,” Levin said. Although Stockholm plans to make concessions, he said, it is an action with a tightrope. If leaders admit too much, “the Swedish government risks being accused of sacrificing long-standing principles” in support of the Kurdish cause and civil liberties, or simply being seen as giving in to an authoritarian regime that makes unacceptable demands – which, frankly, , I think is the popular view here in Sweden. “
So far, Turkey has drawn much of its criticism of Sweden, which has a larger, politically mobilized Kurdish population of 100,000, which has led some Finns to question the wisdom of the two countries’ decision to apply for NATO membership together.
“It is quite possible that Turkey will say yes to Finland for various reasons, but not Sweden yet,” Charlie Salonius-Pasternak, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told Euronews last week.
He clarified his position this week in an email to Yahoo News. “I did not say that Finland had to do it alone, but rather that it was not good – well, potentially catastrophic – that the Finnish president said so clearly that he would [apply] hand in hand, ”writes Salonius-Pasternak. “I think it would be better for Finland and Sweden to unite, but giving so many levers of power to everyone else seems a bit short-sighted.”
Were it not for the opposition of Turkey, Finland and Sweden would be on a slippery slope towards NATO membership at next week’s summit in Madrid. It is now a game of speculation as to whether Erdogan will ever be happy.
Announcement of the NATO summit in Madrid. (Eduardo Parra / Europa Press via Getty Images)
“There are concerns about the dangerous period of the gray area we seem to be stuck in,” Levin said, noting that Moscow now knows their plans, but NATO’s Article 5 security assurance – that an attack on one member is an attack on all – not yet applicable.
Former Secretary of Defense Evelyn Farkas, now executive director of the McCain Institute think tank, told Yahoo News that the delay posed a “real danger.” [that] puts the security of Europe and millions of people at risk. “
By forcing northern leaders to jump through hoops, Erdogan is following Putin’s orders, Chandar said.
“Remember, when we first heard speculation about Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Putin was very threatening and threatening,” Chandar said. “But after Erdogan intervened, did you hear Putin talk about the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO?” Erdogan is doing his job. “
But despite all the attention paid to Erdogan’s demands for alleged terrorists, other factors are at work, analysts say, including his anger over the crumbling US-Turkey fighter jet deal.
Turkey has committed $ 1.4 billion to purchase four high-tech F-35 aircraft. However, in 2019, disobeying warnings from US officials, Erdogan bought a Russian air defense system – and the Trump White House immediately refused to deliver the four planes or return the $ 1.4 billion initial installment. Turkey recently called for the money to be used to upgrade its F-16, a move approved by the Biden administration but not yet received the necessary congressional approval. Erdogan’s cause was not helped when Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, another enemy of Turkey, flew to Washington this month to urge Congress not to approve Erdogan’s demands for an F-16, and offered to take the four missing F-16s. 16 35s.
In response, Erdogan announced that “there is no one called Mitsotakis for me from now on” and canceled bilateral talks with him.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. (Antonio Masiello / Getty Images)
However, another obvious motive for Erdogan’s resignation from Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership is domestic policy, Chandar said. Faced with next year’s election in a country where inflation is rising, Erdogan’s popularity is plummeting.
“Official government figures show inflation at 70 per cent,” Chandar said, adding that it was probably “closer to 100 per cent”. By blocking the entry of Sweden and Finland, Erdogan has drawn international attention. “Now everyone in the world is talking about Turkey’s conditions and Turkey’s security,” he said, adding that this was a form of “image-building” for Erdogan.
Of course, there is growing concern among NATO members about Erdogan’s continuing theatricality, Anna Wislander, director of Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, told Yahoo News. According to her, the opinion among NATO members has always been “it is better for Turkey to be inside NATO than outside NATO, due to its strategic value as a window to the Middle East.” But tensions between Turkey and the United States are growing, she said, citing the deteriorating F-35 deal and the fact that Clergyman Gulen lives in the United States, which has refused to extradite him to Turkey. The “level of trust” between Washington and Ankara “is not really there”, all of which strains the alliance, she added.
Farkas suggested that NATO allies continue to work with Turkey to resolve the issue, but set a deadline to coincide with next week’s summit.
“If the deadline expires and Turkey continues to block Sweden and Finland, then all concessions, including the sale of weapons from the United States, must expire,” Farkas said. “This is probably the only way to take action on this issue – and it is in the interest of the international community to allow this membership to continue.”
Add Comment