Voting ended for two important by-elections, in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton, the results of which could play a key role in Boris Johnson’s political future.
Defeat in both formerly Tory-held seats could once again challenge the prime minister with disgruntled Conservative MPs, especially if the Liberal Democrats overturn a majority of more than 24,000 in Tiverton and Honiton.
The seat in Devon, which has been held by Tories in their various incarnations for more than a century, has been represented by Neil Parish since 2010. Parish resigned after admitting to watching pornography in the City Hall.
The results are expected at around 4am on Friday, with Wakefield likely to announce first, given that the constituency in West Yorkshire is more geographically concentrated.
This vote also took place after the Tory MP resigned in disgrace. Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually abusing a teenager.
While Labor is predicted to triumph in Wakefield, a constituency they consistently held until the 2019 election, the defeat of the Tories in Tiverton and Honiton will raise significant concerns in the Conservative Party.
If the Liberal Democrats win, it is believed that this will be the largest numerical majority canceled in the by-elections, although there have been larger percentage fluctuations elsewhere.
Both the Lib Dems and the Tories described the Devon race as too close to call. But the sheer scale of the Liberal Democrats’ efforts on the ground – party activists delivered more than 40,000 leaflets by hand on Wednesday – could turn the result in their favor.
Johnson is in Rwanda for the British Government summit before traveling to the G7 and NATO summits in Germany and Spain, which will keep him out of the country next week.
But a double loss, especially if there is a significant backlash for Labor in Wakefield, could push Tory’s back players to restart efforts to oust Johnson in his absence.
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After a no-confidence vote this month in which 41% of Tory MPs voted against him, according to party rules, he is safe from such a challenge for a year. However, these rules can be changed.
The pressure on Johnson will be particularly intense if the Wakefield result shows that Labor, led by Keir Starmer, is making significant breakthroughs in such places in the Red Wall, adding to the pressure from the resurgent Liberal Democrats.
In December, the Liberal Democrats seized another Brexit-oriented Tory village stronghold, overturning a majority of nearly 23,000 to win by-elections in North Shropshire after former incumbent President Owen Patterson resigned over a lobbying scandal.
This was followed by a victory for the Liberal Democrats last June in Chesham and Amersham, a constituency in north-west London, which raised concerns among Tory MPs that dozens of such blue-wall seats could fall amid widespread hostility to Johnson. more liberal-minded conservative voters.
The feeling that Johnson is no longer an electoral asset, coupled with controversy over the offenders of the Downing Street blocking parties that sparked the initial vote of confidence, may see Tory MPs turn decisively against the prime minister, although a new challenge is seen as small. probably before the fall.
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