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By ELENI KUREA
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LOBBY SCOOP: The Sunday Telegraph has brought in Will Hazel, i’s education correspondent, to bolster his team in the lobby. Hazel, who has been in i since 2019, will move to Tel at the end of July as a political correspondent and will be No. 2 political editor of the Sunday Telegraph Edward Malnik.
Good morning on Thursday. This is Eleni Kurea. I’m in the Playbook by Tuesday, so send me your tips.
DRIVING ON THE DAY
GEOGRAPHICAL FUNDS: Voters head to the ballot boxes in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton today for the most significant midterm test for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, just as temperatures are forecast to reach a soft 27 degrees.
Meanwhile, near the equator: This is the same temperature as in Kigali, where the prime minister and the gloomy eyes of the Lobby press landed minutes ago. Johnson spent the next three days in Rwanda for the meeting of the leaders of the British community, before leaving for Berlin for the G-7 and Madrid for the summit of NATO leaders.
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What to expect today: The Prime Minister will visit the Rwanda Genocide Memorial early Thursday morning … shoot a video in the middle of the morning … and address the British Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at noon.
Convenient: It will be more than 4,000 miles from political repercussions when the results of the by-elections are announced in the early hours of Friday.
Boris vs. Charles: POLITICO’s own Esther Weber set the stage before boarding last night. She predicted “inconvenience as weapons” while the prime minister met with Prince Charles, who was said to have described the policy of sending migrants to Rwanda in private as “horrifying”. Johnson hinted at this in the cabinet last week, saying ministers had faced criticism from “slightly unexpected countries.” “The couple will face off at the Kigali summit for their first high-profile meeting since last year’s COP26 conference in Glasgow,” Esther wrote. “This will be a test of diplomatic tact for two men who are not exactly known for their restraint. They are scheduled to meet for tea on Friday.
Asked if he would raise the issue with Prince Charles, Johnson told the traveling press in the lobby before they took off: “All I can say is that I think the policy is sensible, measured, and it’s a plan to deal with the grotesque violence of people crossing the English Channel. Ben Riley-Smith of The Telegraph says Johnson will tell Charles that he is “proud” of Rwanda’s policies. FT’s Jim Picard hears something like this when an employee tells him, “If and when immigration policy is lifted, then you can expect the prime minister to defend it vigorously.”
Out of Trouble: It’s worth noting that Johnson will be abroad for a total of eight consecutive days after that – and, as a 25-year-old political insider pointed out to Playbook yesterday, it’s very unusual for a prime minister to be out of the country for so long. long (as confirmed by a Wikipedia scan of Johnson’s predecessors’ overseas travel).
Threat to leadership: Can this week of strong drama be seen the defenestration of an increasingly unpopular and underperforming leader who has been the subject of months of vicious briefings? If we are talking about Patricia Scotland, the Secretary-General of the British Community, then it seems likely. The British government, which openly opposes its leadership, is increasingly confident that it will be overthrown, writes Henry Zeffman of the Times.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS
TO TEST: As the travel chaos of the strikes comes on its third day, political parties will be knocking furiously on the doors to vote in two opposing countries of England. Playbook will quickly guide you through the two competitions that take place:
– Wakefield: 3358 majority of Tories, 63 percent of the vote. Labor won the Red Wall seat in 2019. His last MP, Imran Ahmad Khan, was jailed for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. Labor will certainly return the seat (if he doesn’t, something has happened very, very very wrong) – the question is how big the swing will be.
– Tiverton and Honiton: 24,239 Tories, 58 percent dropout. Devon’s seat, which has remained blue since it was established in 1997, was vacated when her MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting to watching porn on his phone in the City Hall. Far more unpredictable than Wakefield, although the Liberal Democrats are expected to win. Earlier this week, the Playbook received a whisper that the Tory figures were hoping in private that they would be able to hold on. Seb Payne of the FT has heard similarly from some lawmakers, but there is a Tory strategist who says the party will lose by a “significant” majority. A Lib Dem source told Playbook last night that things were “on the doorstep” and that the party was in a stronger position than it was at the end of last week. “We’ve definitely seen some change in us over the last few days,” they said.
Fun fact: If the Liberal Democrats still take Tiverton and Honiton, it will be the largest majority ever overturned in a by-election (in terms of raw numbers, not percentage fluctuations).
When will we get the results? Local authorities in both constituencies expect to announce the result between 4am and 6am – depending on turnout. Wakefield is likely to come first because its population is more concentrated.
It’s time for some experts: James Johnson of JL Partners, who once chaired Theresa May’s No. 10 election, sent Playbook a handy summary of what would be a good and bad night for the main parties.
Wakefield: “The seat only needs a 4.2 percent swing for Labor to win it,” Johnson wrote.
– Under 6 percent: “A very good result for the Conservatives and it means that Labor is facing serious problems in terms of its chances of convincing the public that they are fit for a government in a place like Wakefield – keep in mind that the Tories may lose their place and this is still a good result for by-elections in this part of parliament.
– 6-10 percent: “Good result”.
– 10-16 percent: “Poor and indicative of targeting a hanging parliament or a close election result in line with the current elections. Pushing more than 12.7 percent (Corby) would be Labor’s biggest departure for a Conservative government since Major vs. Blair. “
– 16% +: “Very bad for the Conservatives and suggests that Labor is in a more competitive position than studies show.
TIVERTON AND HONITON: “The seat needs a 22.7 percent swing from the Liberal Democrats to win it,” Johnson wrote.
– Less than 10 percent: “Good for the Conservatives and shows that their vote is significantly held in a situation ripe for a protest vote.”
– 10-16 percent: “Good result”.
– 16-25 percent: “Bad result for the Conservatives – even detention like this would still be a bad result in terms of swing. This would be indicative of erosion in the southern part of the Conservative vote and the mobilization of Labor / Liberal Democrat votes against it, which can be reproduced in a general election.
– 25 percent +: “Very bad result for the Conservatives and could mean structural weakness and potential destruction in the south.”
It’s time for some experts II: Chris Curtis, head of political opinion polls at Opinium, said: turned into this victory now it would be considered a good result … There are no less than 284 Tory MPs who have an advantage over the Liberal Democrats, who are smaller than what Neil Parish achieved in 2019. If the liberals manage to do this miracle, then a few of them will start to feel incredibly nervous. “
Orange Pact: Tony Diver of The Telegraph made an analysis that Labor and the Liberal Democrats could enjoy 20 points on election day by working together against the Tories.
Now read this: John Curtis reveals what is at stake with an article about Indy. “As Lady Bracknell may note, the Conservatives’ loss of a partial election on Thursday could be considered unfortunate. However, the loss of two may seem much more than negligence – but a sign of a government that is at risk of losing its electoral base, “he wrote.
DIFFICULT LAND
UNHAPPY UNION: No busy news week is over without the Labor Party engulfed in a vicious island dispute on the sidelines. And this week is no different, with the consequences of the Labor leadership’s position on the RMT strikes – first revealed by Sienna Rodgers of PoliticsHome on Monday – threatening to overshadow any message the party wants to issue.
Tensions escalate: Shadow cabinet ministers are putting pressure on leader Keir Starmer to dismiss the threat of disciplinary action against the front courts joining the picket lines, according to the Guardian’s Heather Stewart. She says executives who opposed LOTO’s orders to support RMT strike workers have been asked to issue statements explaining their presence.
One on the whip list: Shadow Immigration Secretary Stephen Kinnock – who is hardly on the far left – told Sky’s Sophie Ridge last night that he would support the strike if he were a member of the RMT. “We believe that working people get a good deal in terms of pay, terms and conditions. Strike …
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